The Titans, Packers, and Cardinals being at the top of the standings is emblematic of how the season has unfolded thus far. All three teams have serious flaws and it’s hard to pinpoint who the league’s best team is. In a given week a team can look like a complete disaster against subpar competition then come back the following week and look like a juggernaut. The parity is great for fans of the league but tough for those of us who enjoy wagering on games on a weekly basis. Home-field advantage is a thing of the past, at least for the moment. Road teams are winning at a higher rate than we’ve seen in years past. Favorites and big favorites, in particular, have a poor record against the spread. It appears road underdogs present the best value. Let’s take a look at the Week 11 slate and see if we can identify them for the NFL Sunday Picks.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills(-7)
The Bills have struggled to replicate last year’s performance on both sides of the ball. We knew there would be a level of regression to the mean. Overall, Josh Allen hasn’t had a bad season by any account but he has not been able to play with the same efficiency we saw in 2020. The Colts, on the other hand, are hard to peg on a week-to-week basis. Carson Wentz’s play is up and down but the one thing we can bank on is Jonathan Taylor. The young running back has a case for being the league’s best running back with Derrick Henry sidelined for the season. Expect the Colts to ride Taylor once again and look to limit the number of possessions in the game.
PREDICTION- Colts +7
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs(-2.5)
It’s possible we will be seeing the league’s best two offenses face off on Sunday. The Chiefs finally looked like themselves against the Raiders. The Cowboys, and Dak Prescott, bounced back after a tough outing and reminded everyone how explosive they are on that side of the ball. The game is a fantasy football player’s dream. The game is likely to come down to a defensive play or two and the Cowboys are slightly better on defense. That gives them the edge and makes them valuable as an underdog. You may want to sprinkle something on the money line as well. The Cowboys are a good pick for the NFL Sunday Picks.
PREDICTION- Cowboys +2.5
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-11)
On paper, the Buccaneers are light years better than the Giants but Tampa BAu hasn’t looked like themselves in a few weeks. Until they have a breakout game, you have to bet based on their recent performances. Their recent performances indicate they shouldn’t be double-digit favorites over anyone. The Giants, while flawed, are capable of moving the ball between the 20s and are better on defense than you would think. The Buccaneers will win but 11 points is simply too much.
PREDICTION- Giants +11