You know those flipbook things where you start on the back page (which is essentially blank) and every page you flip more is added until the pages reveal the full picture? In terms of building a contending NFL team, finding a quarterback can either be the first page (in which you build the picture around the QB), or the last (in which the QB is the final addition to a ready-made contender). Point being: The correlation between consistent, solid quarterback play and general, team success in the NFL in strong. This week, we’re taking a break from the NFL Power Rankings to look specifically at the quarterback position.
Nobody should be surprised how well the quarterback position tells the story. But it still puts the NFL under a little different focus. Given how unpredictable the NFL is in general, and how much changes week to week, maybe taking a break from ranking teams the traditional way isn’t such a bad idea. (Sidenote: Keep in mind, this is a ranking of NFL team’s QB situation, not necessarily a straight rankings of QBs, that frames it a bit different.)
2107 Week Eight NFL Power Rankings, Tier One: The Untouchables
- New England Patriots (Tom Brady)
- New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees)
- Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz)
- Carolina Panthers: (Cam Newton)
- Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff)
- Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger)
- Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford)
- Atlanta Falcons (Matt Ryan)
Tom Brady and Drew Brees are legends. Unless they are forced to miss time, they’ll be starting at quarterback for their respective teams. And play at a Hall of Fame level consistently.
Carson Wentz is sort of the new kid on the elite QB block. He ranks this high because not only has his play warranted it, but also because the Eagles are playing so well, and it looks like a really good, young team won’t have to worry about getting less than very good QB play for the next decade.
Carson Wentz made some Big Time Throws on Monday Night Football pic.twitter.com/KNFalx1tyo
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 26, 2017
While Cam Newton might be cast as a bit of a villain elsewhere, the Panthers are married to him. The Panthers are in a position to make the playoffs again, and Newton is the primary reason.
Jared Goff (like Wentz) didn’t show a whole lot to be optimistic about as rookies. Halfway through their second season, it starting to look like the 2016 rookie QB class was really good.
Both Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger are essential to their team’s vision of success. However, due to both Wilson and Roethlisberger’s knack for acquiring nagging injuries, both Seattle and Pittsburgh would be wise to always have a contingency plan in case their QB(s) miss time.
Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan both deserve to be ranked this high since they are clearly the starters in Detroit and Atlanta, respectively. The reason they’re at the bottom of Tier One, though, has to do with sustainability. Can the Lions build around Stafford while paying him such a significant percentage of their salary cap? How long until Matt Ryan’s up-and-down performance (along with the Falcons’ offense in general) has Atlanta’s management looking to “bring in competition” at the quarterback spot?
Tier Two: We Have Our Guy
- Oakland Raiders (Derek Carr)
- Dallas Cowboys (Dak Prescott)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston)
- Tennessee Titans (Marcus Mariota)
- Los Angeles Chargers (Philip Rivers)
- Houston Texans (Deshaun Watson)
If Derek Carr were healthy and playing well, the Raiders/Carr combo would be in Tier One of the NFL Power Rankings (QB Edition). But Oakland has to be wondering if Carr was rushed back and whether or not he can make it through the season.
After a tremendous rookie season, Prescott has continued to play at a very high level. But the question marks around this situation deals with how successful Dallas is. For a franchise not immune to controversy, if the Cowboys don’t develop into serious Super Bowl contenders soon, nobody would be immune from criticism.
Saying Tampa Bay and Tennessee might have buyer’s remorse with their quarterbacks would be greatly overstating their situation(s). But there’s plenty of question marks surrounding both QBs. Neither (injury-plagued) Mariota nor Winston has developed quite the way the teams that drafted them had hoped.
The QB situations for the Chargers and Texans are similar but completely opposite. Their comparable in that both have a firm grasp of starting QB duties. But Los Angeles may decide they’re ready to move on from Rivers in order to get younger and rebuild. Houston has to wonder if they can overlap Watson’s development with a roster that’s been ready to compete for years now. L.A. and Houston are teams who appear to be going in opposite directions in the NFL Power Rankings. And each has unique questions about their quarterback position.
Tier Three: Don’t Tell Our Guy He Might Not Be Our Guy
- Buffalo Bills (Tyrod Taylor)
- New York Giants (Eli Manning)
- Kansas City Chiefs (Alex Smith)
- Washington Football Team (Kirk Cousins)
- Chicago Bears (Mitchell Trubisky)
- Miami Dolphins (Matt Moore/Jay Cutler)
- Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco/Ryan Mallett)
- Green Bay Packers (Brett Hundley/Aaron Rodgers)
- Indianapolis Colts (Jacoby Brissett/Andrew Luck)
Tyrod Taylor has played pretty well over the past couple seasons. However, the Bills – on multiple occasions – have punted (somewhat inexplicably) on locking him down to a long-term contract.
Alex Smith has played as well as any quarterback in the league this season. And in past weeks when we’ve done the NFL Power Rankings, the Chiefs have been in the top spot. But Patrick Mahomes’ presence in Kansas City makes it seems like no matter how this season plays out, Smith’s time as a Chief might already have a clear endpoint.
The conundrum in Washington is as follows: Is Kirk Cousins worth a long-term contract at a salary we’d have to pay him to sign? Probably not. If we got rid of him, how hard would it be for us to replace his production? Extremely.
Based on the Bears’ dedication to Mitchell Trubisky, this combination maybe should be ranked higher. Remember though, based on play-calling, it would seem pretty safe to assume Chicago went to Trubisky before they thought he was ready. Or before the team was ready. However, the team has shown some surprising upside this season despite Trubisky.
Matt Moore and Jay Cutler play differently but perform at similar levels. When Cutler got hurt, the Dolphins offense didn’t really gain or lose anything. The big question here is what happens in the future/when Ryan Tannehill is healthy again? It wouldn’t be shocking if Moore, Cutler, and Tannehill all returned next season (if Cutler doesn’t choose to re-retire); it also wouldn’t surprise if none of the three were on Miami’s roster at this point a year from now.
Joe Flacco’s middle-of-the-road production and high salary makes it reasonable to wonder if his presence in Baltimore is doing more harm than good. The Ravens are as unprepared for a long-term change at quarterback as anyone, though.
Green Bay and Indianapolis are nothing without their regular starters. The Colts have gone without Andrew Luck so far this season, and the Packers might have to go the rest of the way without Aaron Rodgers. These two rank above other teams because they have a clear QB hierarchy in place, they’re just unable to abide by it.
Tier Four: Trying to Compete Without Competency at QB
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Blake Bortles)
- Denver Broncos (Trevor Siemian)
- Minnesota Vikings (Sam Bradford/Case Keenum/Teddy Bridgewater(?))
- Cincinnati Bengals (Andy Dalton)
The Jaguars and Broncos have the two most lopsided situation in terms of where the rest of the team is relative to its QB play. Both have playoff teams (Super Bowl contenders, even) but are trying to make their run with terrible quarterback play.
Blake Bortles and Tom Brady have combined for 5 Super Bowl Titles, 4 Super Bowl MVP Awards, 12 Pro Bowls, and 2 NFL MVP Awards.
— Blake Bortles Facts (@BortlesFacts) August 12, 2017
Minnesota and Cincinnati are both hanging on to hope that they can make a run at the playoffs this season (although the Vikings are in a considerably more favorable spot). The possible return of Teddy Bridgewater offers an intriguing monkey wrench in Minnesota, but none of the other QBs move the needle too much, despite occasional high-caliber play.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier Five: No Answers, Only Questions
- New York Jets (Josh McCown)
- Cleveland Browns (Cody Kessler/DeShone Kizer/Kevin Hogan)
- Arizona Cardinals (Drew Stanton/Carson Palmer (?))
- San Francisco 49ers (Brian Hoyer/C.J. Beathard)
Of this group of teams and quarterbacks, only DeShone Kizer offers anything in the way of upside. But the more he plays in Cleveland, the lower that upside appears to sink. All of these teams have to be looking at the 2018 NFL Draft (or perhaps 2018 free agency) to improve their play from the guy(s) they have under center. Especially in Arizona, where Carson Palmer may have played his last down in a Cardinals uniform, if not in the NFL in general. That uncertainty is only magnified due to the fact that Arizona’s roster (outside of quarterback) might have more talent on it than the other three it appears within these NFL Power Rankings combined.
