Two weeks ago, David Morrow highlighted his great set of NBA Power Rankings right here! Check it out!
During this set, I will refer to his results from last week to have continued conversation about the similarities and differences of our reasoning. He will return next week.
Bi-Weekly Reminder
Multiple Linear Regression model foundation– featured here (independent variables, method, and all).
These NBA Power Rankings are designed to limit my bias and provide insight about how well teams execute different statistically significant play types and fulfill their own defensive and rebounding philosophies; therefore, I’m not supremely concerned with who beats whom (maybe a team performs better than their record would indicate).
Also, to note, the rankings are a byproduct of an entire season’s work. There are not as sensitive to the fluctuations that NBA teams often endure over the course of the year (which is a potential shortcoming of the process). Additionally, because the model that we’re featuring only includes 30 observations (because of limited access to Synergy Sports Tech play-type data), the frequency of outliers will be a little more prevalent now than in future seasons. In fact, there were a few teams with favorable rankings this week, from the MLR Model, that I plummeted anyway because they were badgering me.
MLR Model Formula
Each team is given a cumulative score, which is a result of the values that they earn for each independent variable in the model multiplied by its respective coefficient and by 82 games.
These scores are ranked from 1 to 30.
Nuanced NBA Power Rankings
The Nuanced Rankings are more reasonable and intuitive than those of the MLR Model.
Using MLR Model as a basis, I used Strength of Schedule (SOS), Off. & Def. Efficiency (& Net Rating), injury status, and the current W-L records of the teams to refine the model’s rankings and reward winners (more, or less). Additionally, this week’s version will be a little more “trade-sensitive” because some teams have emerged as buyers; others, sellers.
NBA Power Rankings
Top 10
- Golden State Warriors – Staying quiet at the deadline was likely prudent; no reason to disrupt chemistry in fear of the other teams that are chasing them. It will be interesting to see whether or not Jose Calderon’s sharpshooting can bolster the second unit.
- San Antonio Spurs – Kawhi Leonard is certainly an MVP candidate,; though they sometimes seem to lack the firepower that they’ll ultimately need in the playoff run, San Antonio finds ways to overcome deficits against other elite NBA teams.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – Cleveland has been much improved in the month of February. On Monday, they should be re-integrating more talented players by acquiring former Dallas veterans, Andrew Bogut and Deron Williams.
- Houston Rockets – Stifling any hopes that the Pelicans had of running the table with newly acquired DeMarcus Cousins and exposing doubters of the Lou Williams acquisition, the Rockets appear to be a slight threat to the Warriors’ hopes of returning to the league’s throne. The shrewdness with which Daryl Morey conducts his front office will likely pay dividends.
- Utah Jazz – TheJazz have a plethora of talented, competent individuals who work well together on both ends. Will Derrick Favors factor into their success in the playoffs?
- Toronto Raptors – Masai Ujiri finessed the opposition and acquired Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker before the deadline. Their depth and defensive potential should become strengths. However, Lowry is the engine, and he’s nursing a wrist injury.
- Washington Wizards – Adding Bojan Bogdanovic should add more sustenance to their formerly unimpressive bench unit; John Wall believes that a few more calls while driving to the rim would go a long way towards restoring their competitive balance against equally talented teams like the Jazz.
- Boston Celtics – Isaiah Thomas has been superb, averaging near 30 points per game with 6 APG. Although they were complacent to sit back (and not force themselves to expend assets), they’ll be likely competitive in the late rounds of the playoffs.
- Los Angeles Clippers – Chris Paul is no longer in street clothes- with continuity will come play-type execution and defensive stability.
- Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis has recently become a plus-net rating team, despite their record. Will their offensive execution improve over the late stages of the season? Can Chandler Parsons return to his Houston form?
Middle 10
- Miami Heat – Erik Spoelstra must be Coach of the Year. James Johnson has been much improved, and the Heat can’t seem to score fewer than 100 points. David and I are both very fond of how Miami has escalated toward a near-elite ranking.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – They’ve been about where we expected them this season. Adding shooting and toughness on the offensive glass, respectively, with Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson might show that the Thunder are serious about maintaining playoff relevancy.
- Atlanta Hawks – Their road has been tumultuous. Despite their relevance in the conference, they’ve amassed a negative net rating and recently taken lopsided losses to Florida-based teams.
- Denver Nuggets – At this stage, they are the favorites for the eighth seed in the West, but they are equally flawed (in comparison to other Western Conference hopefuls). Being ripped by Willie Cauley-Stein for 29 points and 10 rebounds is discouraging; the Nuggets remain among the league’s worst in Defensive Efficiency.
- Indiana Pacers – Has Paul George lost faith in this organization? Their recent road woes haven’t helped George’s sangfroid or anyone else’s.
- Milwaukee Bucks – The plan is to fight for competent positioning despite Jabari Parker’s devastating injury.
- Chicago Bulls – To tank or not to tank… or to tank on the fly. They are fortunate to have two victories against a LBJ-less Cavaliers team.
- Charlotte Hornets – It appears as if Nicolas Batum is a better tertiary offensive option, and he’s also not proficient in Pick & Roll offense — better suited for spot-up possessions and handoffs. I’m reluctant to let go of this team’s ability because of near-victories, like this most recent one against the Los Angeles Clippers. But David Morrow is correct, their unconvincing late-game production is what will ultimately hold them out of playoff contention.
- Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks may have fleeced the 76ers in this trade for Nerlens Noel. He’ll only make a solid defensive unit even better.
- Detroit Pistons – They may be playing the new-look Pelicans without DeMarcus Cousins on Tuesday. The Pistons could use a break in the schedule.
Bottom 10
- Portland Trail Blazers – Will Jusuf Nurkic help to solidify their interior? Because CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard can’t guard anyone.
- Philadelphia 76ers – A myriad of injuries have disrupted their playoff push.
And then, well… *collective sigh*Again, #Sixers‘ Joel Embiid is out indefinitely due to swelling and soreness in his left KNEE. He’ll have an MRI today.
— Keith Pompey (@PompeyOnSixers) February 27, 2017
- Minnesota Timberwolves – It’s time to hold our horses when it comes to Minnesota’s imminent dominance in the West.
- New Orleans Pelicans – The trade of the year… But Cousins, Holiday and Davis will need time to gel and this team is devoid of guard depth right now. Even Omri Casspi injured his thumb and was waived, there is no rest for the weary. They’ve tried to add Jarrett Jack, Hollis Thompson and Reggie Williams in the meantime, so we’ll see who stays.
- New York Knicks – Carmelo Anthony had quite the buzzer beater against the 76ers, but it’s not enough to rescue the team from mediocrity.
Carmelo Anthony gets his revenge!
Melo sinks the game-winner over McConnell and the Sixers!pic.twitter.com/8R0xLcQY4y
— Def Pen Hoops (@DefPenHoops) February 26, 2017
- Sacramento Kings – It’s “Steph Curry” Buddy Hield’s and Trill Cauley-Stein’s time to shine after the blockbuster deal. It must be; their future assets are not exclusively in their control.
- Phoenix Suns – Thank you for making the Eastern Conference a tad more interesting.
- Orlando Magic – They received a solid return for Serge Ibaka. Terrence Ross will help the Magic develop.
- LA Lakers – Get that top 3 pick!!!
- Brooklyn Nets – The worst team
