Monday night’s Tennessee/Dallas contest projects as a bit of a different style game than last night’s Packers/Patriots game. In fact, in terms of style, this game could bring a sort of football culture shock. But speaking of last night’s game, we got a respectable two of three picks right in this space. The question we got wrong – who will score the Packers first touchdown – went to the obvious pick (Green Bay WR Davante Adams) while the pick given here went out on a limb and took the field (meaning any other player besides Adams, Aaron Jones, Jimmy Graham, or the “no touchdown scored” choices). The game went about as expected though, although maybe not quite as high-scoring as thought. However, as far as the game at hand, it’s not hard to predict how it will play out, given how these teams have played up until now. Here are the featured picks for Titans vs. Cowboys:
Featured Pick #1: Will there be a field goal in the first quarter? (Yes)
For whatever reason, it feels like this season kickers are as unreliable as ever. But in these uncertain kicking times, Dallas and Tennessee bring the most dependable.
Dallas kicker Brett Maher is 16-18 (88.9%) on the season with a long of 55 while Tennessee’s specialist, Ryan Succop, is 15-17 (88.2%) so far with a best of 54. Maher’s in his first NFL season and has done pretty much as well as Dallas could have expected. Succop, on the other hand, is in his tenth season and sports a career mark of 224-268 (83.6%). Given the performances in the league in general, it would be tempting to take the chance on there being missed field goal in any game this year. This just isn’t the game.
With Dallas being the home team, there’s virtually nothing to worry about as far as weather, temperature, or sub-standard turf affecting the kicking game. For kickers in the NFL, JerryWorld is as forgiving as it gets.
It would be the surprises of all surprises if one of these offenses came out on fire. More likely, this game will have a slow pace … a real three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust-type contest. The chances that one team puts together an early, decent drive only to have it stall within field goal range is a very likely outcome.
Featured Pick #2: Who will score the Titans first touchdown? (Derrick Henry)
Tennessee lacks the ability to consistently make big plays. They have players who can, but they just don’t do it on a regular basis. The odds of the Titans scoring on one of those three-play seventy-yard drives are not good.
Betting on Henry getting the first taste of the end zone might not make you feel that great about it. But the Titans are committed to getting him going. They’re telling you so by giving up a roster spot to do so. Which is to say: On the 29th of October, Tennessee cut linebacker Robert Spillane to sign fullback Jalston Fowler. Not many teams even roster fullbacks anymore. But the Titans’ brass did so specifically to give Henry a lead blocker.
When do fullbacks-as-lead-blockers have the most value? In short-yardage situations. You know what Henry did last week in Fowler’s first game with the team? Derrick Henry scored his first touchdown of the season.
Featured Pick #3: Who will be the winner? (Dallas Cowboys win by 1-13 points)
Neither Dallas nor Tennessee is exactly on fire right now. Over the last three weeks, the Cowboys are just 1-2 while the Titans are 0-3. Tennessee got by early on by winning ugly. But what used to be the only way to play – solid defense and pounding the running game – is now sort of a gimmick. To be fair, Dallas plays in a very similar way. But the Cowboys just do it … better.
This game will probably feel like a throwback. Straight out of the ‘60s or ‘70s. (But don’t expect Dak Prescott or Marcus Mariota to sport a mink coat a la Joe Namath.) In the areas that matter, it’s at best a push, otherwise, advantage Dallas. Defense? They’re pretty even. But consider that for as much credit as the Titans defense gets, the Cowboys have allowed fewer points on the season, albeit only by four points. Elsewhere, Ezekiel Elliott is the best running back in this game by a wide margin. Quarterback is relatively even, but at least Dallas has had the luxury of stability at QB. Prescott enters Monday night with an 87.4 QB Rating to Mariota’s 78.5.
In addition, the home field could mean quite a lot in this game. Generally, teams that play in domes (or controlled environments since AT&T Stadium has a retractable roof) benefit a little bit more than teams that call open-air fields home. Home field advantage seems especially applicable in this game since Dallas is 3-0 at home thus far and Tennessee is 1-3 on the road.
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