“I don’t want to pick against LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but…”
That’s how every conversation about the Los Angeles Lakers’ 2021 NBA Playoffs first-round series against the Phoenix Suns should and will begin. So that’s how I’ll start this piece, too.
I don’t want to pick against LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but James looked like a shell of himself in the first half of the play-in game against the Warriors. Maybe that’s just age, more likely it’s injury or a combination of the two. That doesn’t mean James is washed or cooked or finished, but it does mean we have valid cause to worry about his ability to take over and win a series for the first time in a decade.
For the first time, LeBron James will enter the first round of the playoffs without home-court advantage.
Now 36 years old, James played the lowest percentage of games (62.5%) and fewest minutes per game (33.4) of his career this season. When aging stars miss a significant chunk of a season, it is often assumed teams are being overly cautious with them to save their legs for the playoffs. And that’s probably partially the case here, but James didn’t look like a well-rested star raring to go against the Warriors.
Against a very good Suns team, LeBron will need to be LeBron to win the entire series, and after watching the Warriors game, that doesn’t feel like a sure thing. James said Friday that he is “good, ready to go on Sunday.” If that’s true, and the ankle holds up, the Lakers have a great shot at winning this series.
Presumably, James will primarily be defended by Mikal Bridges, who is a terrific wing defender. Bridges will want no part of James in the post, though. If Phoenix doesn’t send help quickly on post-ups, James will bulldoze Bridges as offhandedly as a bowling ball blasts through a pin. That’s assuming James looks like himself, of course.
I don’t want to pick against LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but Andre Drummond should be mostly unplayable this series because his lack of mobility on the perimeter means the only pick-and-roll coverage the Lakers can play with him is drop coverage. Phoenix is the best midrange shooting team in the league (49.1% this season, per Cleaning the Glass), which means they’re perfectly designed to exploit drop coverage. Devin Booker and Chris Paul (who shot 50% and 53% from the midrange this season, respectively) will happily rise up and shoot over a dropping big man every time, and the midrange jumper from those two players is a deadly enough weapon to beat you in a series with if you can’t find a counter.
So this series could, in part, come down to Frank Vogel’s (or Davis’) rigidity. Davis at center is the Lakers’ best defensive look, but we’ve all heard the refrain: Davis wants to be a power forward, not a center. If the Lakers insist on playing Drummond significant minutes, it could spell trouble for them.
Drummond has averaged 24.8 minutes per game for the Lakers this season. Since his first game with the Lakers, he has only played below 20 minutes once — and that was against the Suns. He played 19:39, so it was basically 20 minutes, but still, it suggests Vogel is aware of Drummond’s limitations against Phoenix. If Davis is fully healthy and primarily plays center, the Lakers’ odds of winning this series soar. Davis can switch and guard pick and rolls however Vogel would like to. He’s light enough on his feet that he won’t be sent stumbling backward as Paul or Booker cashes in an open jumper.
I don’t want to pick against LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but Davis didn’t look so hot against the Warriors either, particularly in the first half. He finished the game with 25 points and 12 rebounds but shot only 10 for 24 from the field and 1 for 6 from 3-point range. Plus he had four turnovers and only two assists. In defense of Davis’ play-in performance, he was going against Draymond Green, who is arguably the best defender on earth, consistently plays Davis well and was brilliant defensively from opening tipoff until the final buzzer. With that said, Davis looked timid for much of the Warriors game, and the Lakers will need him to be very much the opposite against Phoenix. Davis’ versatile dominance was a big reason the Lakers won the championship a year ago, and they need him to be that guy again.
The good news: The Suns don’t have a Draymond Green. That is, a generational defender perfectly designed to guard Davis. The Suns will primarily throw Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton at Davis, both of whom Davis should be able to feast against in different ways. Ayton has improved defensively, but he’s still a bit stiff, and Davis has the speed and skill advantage. It’s easy to imagine consistent foul trouble for Ayton in this series if Davis is his primary assignment. Per NBA.com, Ayton only guarded Davis for just over four minutes this season. In those four minutes, though, Ayton didn’t slow him down. Davis scored 12 points on 5-of-8 shooting. If the Suns use Crowder, who is a terrific defender and spent more time than anyone guarding Davis in the NBA Finals a year ago, Davis will have a similar mismatch to the one James will have against Bridges. The mismatch will allow Davis to power through Crowder in single coverage and will draw traps every time he posts up. The onus will be on Davis to make the proper reads and pick apart the Suns’ defense.
I don’t want to pick against LeBron James and Anthony Davis … and neither does Las Vegas. The Lakers are favored, -220 to win the series.
Bottom line, my feeling on this series is this: If LeBron and Davis look like themselves, the Lakers deserve every bit of the advantage Vegas is giving them. If either of those two is hobbled, things get dicey — especially if it’s Davis.
The Lakers and Suns clashed three times this season. Each time, the Lakers’ injury situation was different. First, they played with James but no Davis. The Suns took that one by 10 points even though James scored 38 points on 16-of-24 shooting — and that was with Booker getting ejected after playing less than 24 minutes. In the next matchup, they had neither James nor Davis. The Suns won again. In the most recent game, May 9 at Staples Center, they had Davis but not James. The Lakers won thanks to Davis, who played 41 minutes and absolutely dominated, scoring 42 points as the Lakers outscored the Suns by 26 points with Davis on the floor.
James and Davis are walking mismatches, and if both of them are healthy, it’s hard to see the Suns winning, even though they’re designed to play bigs like Drummond off the floor, even though they’re deeper, even though they were a far superior team in the regular season. It’s really, really hard to pick against defending champions LeBron James and Anthony Davis, so I’m not going to. It’s easier to give them the benefit of the doubt, to assume they’ll figure it out. But nothing lasts forever, not even LeBron James. So maybe this is the year things start to really go downhill for him. Then again, maybe it isn’t.
Pick: Lakers in 6 … If James and Davis are healthy.
