The first NBA 5 x 5 of the year, and the decade!
Bam Adebayo
Last month we ended with a look at the Miami Heat, and how they’ve competed with the East’s best through the first quarter of the season. Adebayo was not mentioned extensively, but in December he proved himself to be one of the Heat’s indispensable fulcrums. “#NBAAllStar Bam Adebayo” has started permeating NBA Twitter.
His nightly box scores are becoming Draymondian – high in “stocks” (steals + blocks) and characterized by the occasional triple-double. The Heat offense has largely thrived in the halfcourt and struggled to score in transition. But Adebayo has proved to be a savant as a point forward in the open court:
While on its face that play appears simple, it requires a tremendous amount of basketball IQ. Transitioning from a dead sprint with the ball, to setting an on-ball screen without shifting, and dropping the ball off in stride is a thing of beauty.
Adebayo has also learned the shorted pick-and-roll drop-off pass, a favorite of Heat veteran and franchise legend Udonis Haslem:
Some of Adebayo’s uncanny decisions on the court mirror those of Haslem’s hay day. (Haslem is still on the Heat roster, by the way.) The two have developed a strong bond, and its shown in Adebayo’s development. These are the intangibles of “culture” that teams across the league glean, but that few actually possess. It would be unfair to attribute all of Adebayo’s early development to the Heat organization, he came in with a skillset tailor-made for the modern NBA. But with the recent success of Miami’s young, undrafted core, you have to wonder whether the 22-year-old would have reached this level with another franchise.
It will be worth monitoring over the next month to see if Adebayo cements his All-Star candidacy. And it will be worth watching Adebayo’s development over the next few years.
Atlanta Hawks
After enjoying a rosy start to the season, the Hawks offense has fallen off a cliff. Injuries and suspensions to Trae Young, John Collins, and Kevin Huerter have derailed the start to the season. But aside from Atlanta’s misfortune, it seems clear that many were too bullish on the Hawks too early. Much of the optimism came from the Hawks’ (and Young’s) strong finish at the end of last season.
Young’s shot selection has continued to expand beyond the 23.75 feet marker for above-the-break threes, towards 28 feet-plus. Per nbashotcharts.com, Young has already attempted 121 3-point attempts from the farthest zone on the chart. Through his entire rookie season, Young attempted just 207 “deep-zoned” shots. This is partially a result of Young’s lack of support, due to the absences of Collins and Huerter. Sometimes these looks come off the dribble, with more than 10 seconds remaining on the shot clock:
That action is designed to give Young the opportunity to make a decision based on the defense’s reaction. When the screen comes, Kendrick Nunn veers away early from his assignment to switch. Young sees this sliver of space as an opportunity to fire, without having the awareness Jimmy Butler is sliding over to contest his shot. At best, it is a difficult attempt from one of the league’s best shooters. Over time, Young will develop stronger decision-making in these halfcourt situations,
It may be difficult for him to get better looks if the Hawks don’t make changes to the roster. Wing options like Jabari Parker, rookie Cameron Reddish, and rookie Deandre Hunter don’t command defensive attention on the wing. Huerter and Allen Crabbe are the two high-volume high-efficiency options to pair with Young. Crabbe hasn’t been effective this season, shooting just 30% on three attempts per game.
The Hawks rank 30th and 27th in offense and defense respectively, per Cleaning the Glass. Some of their struggles have come from overall shot-making, which should improve throughout the season. The Hawks have shot 32% on 3-point attempts so far, dead last in the entire league. Against the Atlanta defense, opponents have shot 42% from the mid-range – well above league average – and 36.5% from beyond the arc – slightly above league average.
Over the summer the Hawks traded away some of their most-prolific shooters. Tauren Prince and Dwayne Dedmon both shot 39% on a decent volume of attempts last season in Atlanta (Prince struggled with injury concerns and was only available in 55 games). Vince Carter, the sage veteran with a strong 3-point shot, has seen his average dip from 39% last season to 31% through 28 games.
Some bright news for the Hawks – they’ve played the toughest schedule in the entire league and Young was playing even worse this time last year. The realistic expectation was never for this Atlanta team to make any legitimate noise with such a young roster. With the return of Huerter and Collins, the Hawks could coalesce into a middling opponent. At the very least, they’ll be a fun team to watch over the next month.
Lou Williams
The most fascinating part of Williams’ game is his rhythm. The bop-and-weave dance that he does with the ball – incredibly methodical, simple and prepossessing – is an ode to the former NBA, the NBA of the midrange. Passable defenders can know with certainty a feint is coming, and Williams still makes them look doltish.
Exhibit A, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:
Gilgeous-Alexander is not a defensive sieve, and Williams freezes him completely with an elongated pause. His partnership with Montrezl Harrell, well-documented as one of the best pick-and-roll duos last season, intensifies his efficacy with a live dribble. So far this season, plays involving a Harrell pick have resulted in the Clippers scoring 1.26 points per possession, per NBA Stats.
Exhibit B, Patrick McCaw:
Once again, Mccaw is no slouch on defense. He toys with the 24-year-old long enough to deceive him into thinking Williams will pull up, then hesitates and pushing his dribble inside the arc. Rather than pass to Beverly in the corner, he two-steps past Norman Powell and arcs a high floater over the outstretched arm of Marc Gasol. On plays where Lou Williams takes more than 7 dribbles, he is shooting 48% on 2-point attempts, per NBA Stats.
Compared with his 2017-18 campaign, each of the last two seasons Williams’ effective field-goal percentage has dropped off, largely driven by a lower accuracy inside the arc. Part of the difficulty comes from the addition of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Williams will get fewer looks when he shares the court with either, particularly in the fourth quarter. The Clippers bench, leading the league in scoring again this season, is still driven by Williams’ offensive brilliance.
The question for the Lou Williams and the Clippers in their quest for a championship: can he improve his efficiency enough to offset his defensive liability?
Washington Wizards
You’d be forgiven if you ignored the Wizards so far this season. They haven’t won a lot of games and their defense has been abysmal through 32 games. But their style of play is mesmerizing enough to make watching each game worthy of consideration. The Wizards have the league’s 8th best offense – largely driven by exceptional outside shooting from Bradley Beal, Moe Wagner, and Davis Bertans.
Bertans has become an NBA League Pass golden child. He takes and makes ridiculous shots that will have you screaming at your television:
The Wizards are just plain fun on offense. On the flip side, their defense is on pace to be the worst in league history (measured with defensive efficiency). Aside from corner 3-pointers, they allow opponents to take uncontested looks from the highest efficiency spots on the court. The Wizards have given up the third most offensive rebounds and committed the second-most fouls of any team defense, per Cleaning the Glass.
They have no chance of contending for a championship, and likely won’t even make the playoffs in the weaker Eastern Conference. Most of their players are still young and/or inexperienced. Rui Hachimura has recently put together a nice offensive streak. Wizards games hold no implications for how the 2019-20 season will play out. And yet, they are one of the most entertaining teams to just watch play.
If nothing else, tune in to see the Wizards attempt to score 150 points.
Dennis Schroder
It can be hard to notice the nuance in Schroeder’s game, and how it has raised the Thunder’s offense to an average level. The Thunder play a different game than the rest of the NBA – they take a large number of mid-range attempts and rarely push in transition. Schroeder is the catalyst for this idiosyncratic style, he loves the mid-range and prefers to size up his opponents in the halfcourt.
On the season, Schroeder is shooting 55% on “long mid-range” attempts, per Cleaning the Glass. Even the unnamed maligned analytics department would approve of such attempts in that efficiency band. He supplements these looks with a high percentage of shots at the rim, and he’s shooting 62% on attempts within 4 feet. Schroeder has had a stretch of games to end the month of December that may define the Thunder’s season. As of this writing, Oklahoma City is seventh in the Western Conference standings.
On December 22nd, Schroeder carried the Thunder down the stretch to seal a close victory over the Clippers. He finished with 28 points, with 16 coming in the fourth quarter. On the 27th of December, Schroeder scored 24 points on 10-17 shooting to defeat the Charlotte Hornets in overtime. Against the Charlotte guards, Schroder put on a display, flashing some of his eccentric moves off the bounce:
The Thunder have won five of their last six games, largely against inept competition. With the West playoff race tightening up – 6 teams are vying for 8th place within two games of one another in the standings – the next two months is a crucial stretch for the Thunder. They’ll look to Schroder to continue to provide a scoring punch off the bench.
Philadelphia 76ers
There is no team in the NBA quite like the Sixers, and it still appears that this group is figuring out their identity. That makes sense given that Tobias Harris, now the team’s highest-paid player, was traded to Philadelphia less than a year ago. The inconsistency of play is concerning, but regardless the Sixers are still one of the league’s best teams.
Their defense has been as good as advertised, allowing just 105 points per 100 possessions on 51% effective field-goal percentage. Both marks are above league average, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Sixers starting lineup, the largest in terms of height and length in the league, has dominated the glass in starters-only minutes. Ben Simmons is also leading the NBA in steals per game.
Simmons is highly proficient in defensive isolation. Even when guarding the opponent’s most talented scorer, he’ll feint full ball denial and then snatch the ball out of another opponent’s hands:
Even with his offensive idiosyncracies, the Sixers are better with Simmons. His ball-handling and defense, along with his length, allow him to match up with the league’s best. Undoubtedly, his shooting foibles have hurt the progression of his pairing with Joel Embiid. Embiid’s inconsistent offensive prowess could also be attributed to his physical conditioning.
The Sixers are one of the premier contenders in the Eastern Conference and the NBA. Their dominant performance against the first-place Milwaukee Bucks on Christmas Day proves so. They have the versatility to match up with any opponent, and the defensive aptitude to stop the league’s most potent offenses. Were the Sixers to match up with the Bucks in the conference finals, they have three different options when guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo. If they’re able to figure out their identity and coalesce at the right time, they could be a problem for the rest of the league.
Also, in advance of the February 6th trade deadline, the Sixers are positioned to make a move to fortify the roster. A back-up point guard or another shooter could further elevate the Sixers’ potential for contention. A mid-level return for Mike Scott and Zhaire Smith is the most likely scenario, though if a previously unavailable star comes on the market it wouldn’t be shocking to hear Simmons in trade rumors as well. No matter the final roster construction, Philadelphia will be worth watching in 2020.
Pat Connaughton
Pat Connaughton is the basketball version of the Energizer bunny – always alert and moving, waiting for his opportunity to impact the game. Few guards in the NBA have blocked more jump shots than Connaughton. He leaves opposing guards enough room to trick them into thinking they’re open, before extending and tipping enough of the ball to deflect the shot:
He takes Milwaukee’s league-leading defense and makes them better. Last season the Bucks, on their way to the East’s top overall seed, allowed a large portion of opponent attempts to come from beyond the three-point line. Last year, opponents shot 36% on those attempts. Through the first two months of this season, that number is creeping up to 38%. Even if opponents get off the shot, Connaughton is always subconsciously convincing them that he may sneak up and alter it.
After coming over from Portland last season, Connaughton has found a home in the Milwaukee system. Having relied exclusively on a diet of 3-point attempts and shots at the rim, Connaughton’s shot profile mirrors that of the Bucks perfectly. He leads guards in block percentage and foul percentage, deterring shots without giving opponents easy opportunities at the line.
The one struggle for Connaughton this season has been his outside shooting. After shooting 46% in his last full season with the Blazers, his accuracy has dropped to 32% and 31% in the last two seasons with Milwaukee. Hunting for more attempts in secondary lineups may provide the extra bit of confidence that persuades the ball to drop in the net. If he’s able to raise his outside shooting slightly, Head Coach Mike Budenholzer will be forced to play him extensive secondary minutes in the postseason.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have reached the “make or break” point of their season. Before their December 26th overtime win against the Kings, the Wolves were on an eleven-game losing streak. During that stretch, Minnesota was the worst offensive team in the NBA, scoring just 95.4 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
What changed between the Wolves’ hot start in November and the last few weeks of play? Poor play from the Wolves’ key offensive contributors – mainly Andrew Wiggins – and general poor shooting luck from the most important areas of the floor.
As of this writing, Minnesota features the 27th best effective field-goal percentage in the league at just 50.5%. Their shot profile is fairly optimal, with just over 75% of their attempts coming at the rim or from beyond the arc. However, on these attempts, Minnesota is shooting just 60% and 32%, respectively.
Aside from Karl Anthony-Towns, who started off the year scorching hot from beyond the arc, and Jeff Teague, no other Minnesota starter is shooting above league average. Wiggins, who had one of the league’s best offensive starts, is now shooting just 33% on 6.5 attempts per game. Robert Convington’s accuracy has dipped down to 33% after he shot 37% or better in each of the last two seasons. Non-shooters and rookies, such as Treveon Graham and Jarret Culver, are weighing heavily on the overall team’s percentage.
Some of this should have been expected. Few names on the roster, save for Towns and Convington, have displayed the ability to make outside shots at a consistent level. The Timberwolves are experiencing an extreme level of shortage, but they can’t necessarily count on Towns shooting 42% from outside the rest of the season, either.
All of this to say that Minnesota’s most important stretch of the season will come in January. During the aforementioned eleven-game losing streak, the Wolves played seven current playoff teams. They also lost to the Cavaliers, Warriors, and Grizzlies during that stretch. In the next two weeks, the Wolves will rematch with each of the three. They’ll need to win these “gimmie” games and some matchups against better opponents to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Andre Drummond
If Andre Drummond weren’t wearing a Detroit uniform, there would be little to be thankful for as a Pistons fan. The 26-year-old is quietly having the best year of his young career and is still improving. He’s slowly started expanding his game from back-to-the-basket bruiser to an eyes open passing threat:
Some of the improved passing is a result of having more adept offensive teammates to pass to. Derrick Rose and Luke Kennard are two of Drummond’s favorite options.
Another wrinkle he’s started to master is the mid-post hook shot:
Few guys his size are able to make an even admirable attempt at creating their own shot in a crowded lane.
Drummond is worth monitoring as a potential trade target heading towards the February 6th deadline. While his contract is slightly toxic – with a massive $37.5 million player option in the 2021 offseason – the Pistons’ leadership could be ready to swap with another pricey contract (Kevin Love, for example). With Drummond and Blake Griffin both commanding over $60 million combined for the next two seasons, Detroit may consider cutting bait to go into a full rebuild. A team like the Knicks or Hornets, looking for another commendable player to feature on the team’s program cover, could also become a suitor.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are the closest thing to the Eastern Conference Spurs (not this year’s Spurs); a model NBA franchise for consistency and togetherness. In December, they won close games against the Raptors, Lakers, and Celtics. But can the Pacers finish in the top half of the rather deep Eastern Conference playoff picture?
On the back of another strong defensive season, Head Coach Nate McMillan has once again pushed the Pacers to exceed expectations. They’ve limited opponents to a 50% effective field-goal percentage by nixing opportunities at the rim. Some of this success is slightly fluky, as Pacers opponents have the league’s second-worst percentage at the rim and worst percentage on corner 3-pointers. Even with limited action from an ankle injury, Myles Turner has been one of the best rim protectors in the league.
The Pacers’ biggest strength lies in their reliable guard play. They further bolstered their outside shooting with the additions of TJ Warren and Jeremy Lamb this past offseason. Malcolm Brogdon has kept the offense alive while Victor Oladipo is recovering. Brogdon’s offensive contributions and efficiency have dropped as a result of his increased usage. With the assimilation of Oladipo, Brogdon should regain the incredible shooting efficiency he displayed last season for the Bucks.
The Pacers have made the playoffs each of the last four seasons, but they haven’t reached the semifinal series since 2013-14. It won’t be an easy road with the Sixers, Bucks, Heat, Celtics all expected to win 50 or more games, according to NBA Stuffer. The Pacers are projected to be just under that mark.
In January, the Pacers will matchup against the Sixers twice and the Heat once, prior to embarking on a 10-day West Coast road trip. Indiana is 7-9 on the road this season, even with the league’s third easiest strength of schedule. This month the Pacers will have to prove they can win important games away from home, so they aren’t forced to do the same in the postseason.
