What a difference a week can make. Or, more specifically, one game.
In particular, the Chicago Bears made a big jump after their win over the Washington Redskins.
Regarding the Bears, the change is an interesting reaction to Chicago beating two teams with a combined record of 0-6 thus far in Denver and Washington.
But perhaps the biggest reason for the jump was the play of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who went 25-31 for 231 yards and three touchdowns against one interception.
In terms of the odds, the Bears’ move is noteworthy. The team’s odds now sit at +1400, putting them right around the middle of the top-ten most likely Super Bowl winners. But it makes a lot more sense when considering the fact that those numbers aren’t necessarily meant to predict the future, rather, the numbers are set to encourage relatively equal betting on both sides.
The Bears are one of the NFL’s most popular teams, one of the few teams that legitimately have a national following. Confidence among fans of Chicago’s football team is understandably very high, even if the two wins don’t reveal a whole lot about the team. From that perspective, it’s understandable. There’s probably a lot more Bear fans out there willing to put money down on them winning the Super Bowl now than there was even a few days ago.
Still, for the knowledgable bettor, there has to be value in the current odds somewhere. If for no other reason than the fact that only six NFC teams will make the playoffs.
Currently, within the top-11 teams most likely to make it to the Super Bowl, only the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, and Houston Texans appear out of the AFC. So there’s at least one team in there not making the postseason. If one were to reverse-engineer this, correctly identifying the team that will be left out is an important first step toward making a good bet on who has the best chance to make it the Super Bowl relative to their current odds.
Further, there are three NFC North teams clustered around the top-five. The Green Bay Packers (-1200), Chicago Bears, and Minnesota Vikings (-1600), Both Chicago and Minnesota already have early-season losses to the Packers. So it’s interesting there isn’t more of a divide there. But perhaps the best group out of that bunch – or at least the one we can feel the best about – just might be the Bears defense. That should go a long way in formulating a betting plan here.
We’ve seen in the past that the two most important things to look for in a title contender are sound quarterback play and a good, consistent defense. We’re pretty sure of the latter, it just comes down to how each individual bettor feels about the former.
As they say, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. And right now, to many, the Bears look beautiful, rightly or wrongly.