It’s finally here! With Opening Day set to take place it’s time to make some predictions for the 2016 MLB season. After an offseason filled with intrigue let’s take a look at my thoughts and predictions for the upcoming campaign.
AL EAST:
- Boston Red Sox
Let’s make one thing clear, all five teams in this division have a legitimate shot at postseason play. While each team in the division has some major flaws I believe Boston holds the best chance to win the AL East. Adding David Price, Craig Kimbrel, and others makes the Red Sox baseball’s most improved team. Boston’s going to score a lot of runs, the question is whether they have the pitching and defense to carry them the rest of the way. Defensively there is reason to be optimistic after a impressive spring training from Hanley Ramirez over at first base along with the fact that the Red Sox had the courage to bench Pablo Sandoval after a horrific 2015 season in favor of Travis Shaw who looked really good in spring training. Let’s not forget this team is loaded with young talent including possible MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. My bets on Boston winning the AL East. Can they really let down David Ortiz during his swan song season?
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Like Boston, Toronto is going to light up the box score the problem is that they might also allow just as many runs. Losing David Price to the Red Sox stings. Combine that with the fact that I wasn’t a huge fan of their replacement moves in J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez. The good news for Toronto is with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion in contract seasons they figure to put up explosive numbers yet again. With reigning MVP Josh Donaldson on board this is a team that figures to be one of two AL wild card teams.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays might have one of the best rotations in baseball and yet nobody knows about them. Can Chris Archer vie for a Cy Young award? Can Blake Snell be a later summer call up propelling Tampa into the race? Can the combination of Jake Odorizzi and Erasmo Ramirez continue their momentum from 2015? The Rays problem in 2016 will be their offense and will finish with a modest third place finish.
4. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles were the offseason’s biggest spenders. The problem is they somehow got worse. They gave Chris Davis $161 million after being only two years removed from a season where he hit .196. They also replaced Wei Yin Chen for a declining Yovanni Gallardo. Let’s also not forget they decided to double down on Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez, one of them has to field….. The positives for Baltimore is you can never count out a Buck Showalter team. They still do have some talent of course in the form of Adam Jones and Manny Machado.
5. New York Yankees
I say this with all due respect but the late great George Steinbrenner has to be rolling in his grave. The Yankees were the only team to not sign a major league free agent this offseason a sentence I still cannot fathom to this day. A roster filled with aged over paid players its hard to see them back in the postseason after another offseason where they failed to really improve. They did add Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman but the entire dynamic surrounding those moves is awfully strange. Starlin Castro is somehow expected to start at second base while also being their super utility infielder? Arolids Chapman is expected to improve upon a bullpen that only lost one game in which they lead in the 7th inning or later a year ago?
AL CENTRAL:
- Cleveland Indians
Yes the Indians read it and weep. The Indians remind me a lot of the Mets from a year ago. While most people are familiar with Corey Kluber, I am more excited with their 2,3, and 4 starters. Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer are going to shock a lot of people with just how good those young arms really are. Cleveland’s offense may struggle at times but I expect outstanding seasons from middle infielders Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor. Jump on the Indians bandwagon before it’s too late. You heard it here first.
2. Detroit Tigers
I don’t know about you but I love what the Tigers did this offseason and figure to be in a real win now mode. Adding Jordan Zimmermann, Justin Upton, and a number of other players figure to put Detroit back in the mix in 2016. Then again if things turn south this season it will because of this aging roster. Miguel Cabrera will have to return to MVP form if this team has a chance to return to the playoffs.
3. Kansas City Royals
Yes they won the World Series last year but are they really that much better than everyone else? Kansas City is the perfect roster for today’s baseball but I just don’t see that translating three years in a row I just have a bad gut feeling about this one. One of the biggest concerns for me is their very average rotation.
4. Chicago White Sox
The Adam LaRoche fiasco may have just doomed this team from the start. Nevertheless this team is very much improved with Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie now on board. The biggest area of need remains in the rotation with question marks from starters 3 to 5.
5. Minnesota Twins
The Twins surprised a lot of people last year but they figure to have hit their ceiling. Minnesota could finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th. An average rotation and mediocre offense keeps them in the cellar.
AL WEST:
- Seattle Mariners
No one was busier than Seattle this offseason under new GM Jerry Dipoto. Seattle didn’t have the best 2015 but there is no question they may be the most talented team. If Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez isn’t enough then core players such as Kyle Seager, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Nelson Cruz figure to play huge roles as well.
2. Houston Astros
Carlos Correa might be the best player in baseball, Houston’s rotation is down right filthy, and they are loaded with prospects the give the team more juice later in the season. Let’s not forget this was the only team that was leading the Kansas Royals in a playoff series a year ago.
3. Texas Rangers
Texas could actually be better this upcoming season. A full year of Joey Gallo – Cole Hamels, plus the return of Yu Darvish has Texas as primed contenders. I like Texas just not as much as the other two teams.
4. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have the best player in baseball. They also have the best defensive shortstop in quite some time and they are still awful at just about every other position. It may be time to entertain a Mike Trout trade as it seems as if they are wasting his prime years on a mediocre team.
5. Oakland A’s
I’m not quite sure what the A’s strategy is this season. After being famous for their moneyball tactics, they don’t have a player on the roster who will have an on base percentage over .333. Maybe Billy Beane is slowly losing his mind after the horrendous Josh Donaldson deal.
NL EAST:
- New York Mets
I was tempted to take Washington but the Mets rotation is tough to bet against. An improved offensive unit figures to put the Mets right back into the postseason mix. Keeping Yoenis Cespedes was monumental for that eventual playoff race. New York’s best baseball team has 3 legit cy young contenders. Don’t forget about the return of Zack Wheeler either.
2. Washington Nationals
Dusty Baker is the new manager which figures to be the biggest difference maker in DC. The Nats did add Daniel Murphy and Ben Revere to an already explosive lineup. The Nationals rotation is pretty darn good too and should make a return to postseason play as a wildcard team.
3. Miami Marlins
Another big managerial switch brought in Don Matingley as manager and Barry Bonds as hitting coach. Miami’s best player Dee Gordon is an on base machine and figures to set the tone of the lineup for the other big bats (Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna). Wei-Yin Chen also should bring some stability to the rotation headed by Jose Fernandez.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
2015’s worst team figures to be bad again in 2016. This figures to be a multi-year rebuilding project after former GM Rueben Amaro destroyed their farm system years ago.
5. Atlanta Braves
This is another big time rebuilding project. This team wants to lose so bad they just released Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher outright. The good news for Braves fans is they have the best farm system in baseball and it’s not even close.
NL CENTRAL:
- St. Louis Cardinals
Look this is the Cardinals we are talking about. They always find a way trust me. St. Louis certainly isn’t they favorite but they sure do have a strong roster even after losing key players to the Cubs. The Cardinals had the best record in baseball a year ago and I don’t expect them to be far off 100 wins again. Randall Grichuck and Stephen Piscotty are two players you should get familiar with.
2. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will sneak into postseason play as the 2nd wildcard. While I expect them to be a good team in 2016 they could actually be worse from a year ago as it is hard to replicate 97 wins even with a roster improvement. Is it possible GM Theo Epstein made another Carl Crawford type signing with Jason Hayward? Is it possible Ben Zobrist ages and actually has a worse season than Starlin Castro? There are a lot of questions here and nobody is talking about them.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
All three teams in this division could realistically make the postseason as they all did a year ago. If Pitt does somehow fall out of the race don’t be surprised if this same payroll franchise entertains a Andrew McCutchen trade. I don’t expect this to happen however as the Pirates usually find a way to stay competitive always rolling out a solid rotation to go along with their star bats.
4. Cincinnati Reds
Want to hear a common theme in the National League? There are a lot of bad teams! the Reds are one of them. As long as they are rolling out productive bats in Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips they could still win some games and enough to tag them in 4th place.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are so bad they might be able to get beaten by one of the stronger AAA teams on a given night. Seems like only a matter of time until Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, and others are dealt away.
NL WEST:
- San Francisco Giants
Its an even year! The Giants have won the world series in 2010, 2012, and 2014 and should have a really great year in 2016. They made some high risk signings in Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto but they have the potential to be a dominant staff this season. Keep Buster Posey and Hunter Pence will be just as vital. If the Giants do win the division it will be because solid players like Matt Duffy and Joe Panik made the improvements I expect them to make.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have a quarter million dollar payroll and still have holes at way to many positions. I’m not sure how that previous sentence is even possible but the Dodgers managed to do so somehow. The rotation is littered with question marks after Clayton Kershaw. The good news is their AAA rotation may actually be better than some of their major league starters. It is a matter of when LA will call them up (Julio Urias, Frankie Montas). Looking at the LA lineup faces even more questions. Andre Either is on the DL, Yasiel Puig somehow forgot how to play, and they have virtually no power in the lineup outside of Adrian Gonzalez. Nevertheless a $250 million dollar payroll should keep them competitive right?
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Two days ago I really contemplated putting Arizona in the postseason race. That dream is no longer a reality after A.J. Pollock broke his elbow. Arizona completely destroyed their farm system in an attempt to go for it in 2016. We will see if they can keep the ship afloat until Pollock returns from injury or they make another big trade. Over paying for Zack Greinke and giving away virutally every prospect they had could make this season rather interesting in Arizona.
4. San Diego Padres
You know I still can’t ever figure out what San Diego is doing? They somehow have managed to stay mediocre for the last decade. Maybe Petco Park is cursed, then again it is one of the harder places to hit homers. Why would a great hitter sign there again? The Padres seem destined to deal away James Shields, Andrew Cashner, and Tyson Ross at some point.
5. Colorado Rockies
The farm system is good, the major league team not so much. The Colorado rotation will limit this team as it always has. One player to watch is Nolan Arenado who could be in the MVP race. The Rockies would be crazy to deal him but anything is possible after seeing them deal away Troy Tulowitzki.
World Series Prediction:
Red Sox Defeat Cubs
What a headliner this would be. The cursed go up against the team that used to be cursed. Theo won a title in Boston can he do it in Chicago? Will former Red Sox Jon Lester and John Lackey throw gems to win the series for the Cubs? I’m still going with Boston. Peyton Manning won a title in his swan song year, why can’t David Ortiz do the same for the Red Sox. It would mark the 4th title in 12 years for Boston.
