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When you’re talking about recent, non-divisional rivalries, this matchup ranks close to the top of what the NFL has to offer. The “Fail Mary.” The 2014 NFC Championship game in which the Packers snatched a loss from the jaws of victory. The fact that Green Bay has won three straight regular-season matchups against Seattle since then. The love/hate relationship between Russell Wilson and Wisconsin sports fans dating back to his time as a Wisconsin Badger. There’s a lot of bad blood and/or unique dynamics that few teams share like these two.
Featured Pick #1: How many points will be scored total? (Between 45-54 points)
It might be tempting to take another option here since this one sort of pigeon-holes you between two numbers. As opposed to the other two picks, which are “Under 45 points” and “Over 54 points.” But this just seems too logical to pass up. All the picks here are worth roughly the same (between 225 and 270 points).
As far as scoring, these are two completely average teams. They’re capable of big plays, to be sure. But their season production hasn’t matched their star power. Green Bay has scored 24.8 points/game (which ranks 13th in the NFL) while Seattle is not far behind at 21.3 points/game (15th).
Furthermore, the Packers recent discovery that running back Aaron Jones is really good and can be the primary option may change their offensive approach. Like past years, the offense up until last week relied on Aaron Rodgers making plays. Whether it was his knee injury or what, Rodgers hasn’t been his legendary self. Rather, he’s been merely great. But if Aaron Jones can get going again like last week when he had 145 yards on 15 carries, the Packers might opt to take some pressure off their QB by slowing the tempo down and playing a more ball control-centric style. Especially if they can get out to an early lead.
Seattle may look to do some of the same. They’ve used their mix-and-match backfield to do all season what the Packers did last week: place a premier on maintaining possession of the ball. There’s enough playmaking on both sides to deter one from picking the “Under 45,” especially since neither defense would make you feel good about that pick. But on the flip side, it might not be as high scoring as it might seem.
Featured Pick #2: Who will score the Packers first touchdown? (Jimmy Graham)
Jimmy Graham’s fit in Green Bay hasn’t been without its hiccups. His catch rate sits at 58.9%. Last season (when it was 59.4%) was the first time it dipped below 60% in the tight end’s career. But who did he play for last year? The Seahawks. What better way to stick it to his former team than to score his new squad’s first touchdown?
Aaron Rodgers still needs to cultivate a true third option behind Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. Or even a second option, considering Cobb’s health issues and inconsistent play when he is on the field. That’s largely because Geronimo Allison’s season is officially done after being put in injured reserve, leaving the Packers with a stable full of young, unproven pass catchers.
Despite Graham’s low(ish) catch rate, his yards-per-catch is actually a yard better than his overall career number of 12.3 yards/reception. If there’s ever a time for the Packers to look for him in the red zone, now would be that time. Green Bay has been pretty awful inside the opponents’ 20-yard-line. At least some of that is due to Graham’s absence in that space. But the glaring hole in this equation on Seattle’s side is the injury to K.J. Wright. He’s unlikely to play. Not having to go against the Seahawks’ big, athletic linebacker would be a major win for Graham and the Packers.
Featured Pick #3: Who will win the game? (Packers by 7-12)
The actual betting line for this game (Seattle -2.5 in most places) is pretty disrespectful of the Seahawks. If teams are considered even, home field usually is worth a full three points. And no team prides itself on its home field advantage quite like the Seahawks. (They even retired the number 12 in honor of the fans.)
Green Bay made relatively light work of the Miami Dolphins last Sunday while Seattle comes in having lost two in a row – most recently to arguably the NFL’s most bruising team, the L.A. Rams. That could matter considering when teams play on Thursday night they really don’t practice at all that week. (Monday is a recovery and treatment day, Tuesday is customarily the players’ day off, can’t go too hard on Wednesday since the game is 24 hours later.)
Thursday night games have a tendency to be a little … unpredictable. And if history indicates a wide variance in outcomes, look for the value play. One would think – unpredictability notwithstanding – that this game would stay within a two-touchdown final margin.
Therefore, taking Green Bay to win by 7-12 points, for a whopping 700 GameOn points, offers a ton of value. If you think the Packers have a chance to win, or even think it’ll be a close game, that’s your pick. Other than picking Green Bay to win by more than 12, no other option gives you over 570 points. And Packers by more than 12 is only worth 40 more points than the “Green Bay by 7-12” pick. If it hits, your either giving yourself a healthy cushion or you’re making up for a wrong pick elsewhere. Getting a point value of 125% or more is too good to pass up.
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