The Oklahoma City Thunder are reported to be active prior to this season’s upcoming trade deadline on February 23, per HoopsHype’s Alex Kennedy, though nobody outside closed doors has any idea whether Thunder GM Sam Presti plans to be a buyer or a seller.
The Thunder are a bit more interesting. In talks with other teams, they have sent mixed signals. Rival executives aren’t sure if they want to be buyers to make a playoff run (they’re the West’s seventh seed), or if they want to move off some of their players to focus more on the team’s long-term outlook. Either way, the Thunder are working the phones and one general manager said, “They will do something, one way or the other. They won’t stand pat.”
If the Thunder choose to go the route of “buyer” and solidify their rotation for a playoff run, they’ll have a difficult time consolidating assets in the form of draft pick compensation for a trade. The Thunder cannot trade away their first round draft pick in the 2017 NBA Draft this summer before using it due to the Stepien Rule, which dictates that a team must have at least one first-round draft pick every other year. Presti chose to send Oklahoma City’s 2018 first round draft pick to the Utah Jazz prior to the 2015 trade deadline along with Reggie Jackson, Kendrick Perkins, Grant Jerrett, and Tibor Pleiss in a three-team trade with the Detroit Pistons, which brought back Enes Kanter, D.J. Augustin, Kyle Singler, Steve Novak, and a future second-round draft pick.
The pick Oklahoma City sent out to the Jazz is protected 1-14 through the 2020 draft, meaning if they make the playoffs next season, the draft pick will immediately convey to Utah. If the pick doesn’t convey in 2018, the same protection applies in 2019, and again in 2020 if needed. If the Thunder miss the playoffs in each of 2018, 2019, and 2020, they will instead send their 2020 and 2021 second round draft picks to Utah and simply retain their first round draft picks.
If this were the only first round pick debt Oklahoma City owed, they would be able to trade one of their own first round draft picks as early as two years after a pick is conveyed to Utah, or as late as 2022. Because earlier draft picks inherently have more value than later picks, any team that would want to receive a first-round draft pick from the Thunder would phrase the terms of the agreement as “a first round pick two years after a pick has been conveyed to Utah,” meaning a pick would be conveyed sometime between 2020 and 2022.
This is exactly what Presti and Philadelphia 76ers GM Jerry Colangelo agreed to in a trade early this season that sent Ersan Ilyasova and a first round pick to Philadelphia in exchange for Jerami Grant. The pick will convey two years after Oklahoma City conveys one to Utah, though the pick to Philadelphia is protected for picks 1-20 from 2020 to 2022. This means if the pick falls in that range, it will not convey to the 76ers. If a first round draft pick doesn’t convey to Philadelphia by 2022, Oklahoma City’s obligation to Philadelphia turns into both their own 2022 and 2023 second round draft picks.
This paints a grim scenario for Presti in terms of his asset availability when it comes to negotiating trades. The best-case scenario for the Thunder would be to make the playoffs next year and convey the pick to Utah as soon as they possibly can, and then become a top 10 team in the league by 2020 to convey a draft pick to Philadelphia. However, the worst case scenario would be missing the playoffs in 2018, 2019, and 2020 and simply conveying two second round picks to Utah. At that point, the Thunder would theoretically owe Philadelphia their own 2022 first round draft pick, protected for selections 1-20.
Where does that leave Presti in terms of negotiating before this season’s trade deadline? If Oklahoma City chooses to part with one of their own first round draft picks, there are two ways Presti could negotiate to construct the deal. The first would be to simply convey a draft pick two years after one has been conveyed to Philadelphia, much like the pick that is owed to the 76ers.
The second, less preferable option for the Thunder would be to simply convey their 2024 first round draft pick, though this would hamstring the Thunder and prevent them from trading one of their own first round draft picks until 2026 (or later, depending on negotiated pick protections). At the moment, Presti does not have the ability to trade a first round draft pick outright until 2024 due to the aforementioned Stepien Rule.
Presti needs to be cautious when looking to bolster his team’s roster in preparation for a playoff run this season and look to do so without sacrificing significant future assets. Doing so could potentially set the franchise back multiple years if all goes wrong.
