Last fortnight’s NBA Power Rankings are right here.
All team statistics are recorded as of games played on Mar. 10th. This model is now using luck-adjusted ratings (with adjustments to account for turnover rates, free throw rates, and rebound rates to capture shooting luck. A few of the Sunday contests aren’t included in the model, which marginally affects the results.
If you’d like to read the rankings’ methodology, then check the postscript at the end.
Here are the results after the 21st week of NBA action. Because the NBA Power Rankings’ data was not compiled using rolling averages, extraordinarily hot/cold teams aren’t given strikingly high/low valuations; rather it’s an evaluation/estimation of a team’s winning success given its year-long offensive and defensive execution.
Notes for this week’s rankings
- All year Houston, Golden State and Toronto have shown to be the most sound rosters. One of which with overwhelming bench depth & the others with extremely high-end offensive talent.
- Portland and New Orleans have risen near the top because of their recent long winning streaks. Portland’s even been the caliber of a 50-win team, thanks in large part of their defensive consistency, which may have not seemed feasible given recent years with that backcourt. (Utah over New Orleans isn’t factored into this model’s update as this was updated as of Feb 10th’s games.)
- San Antonio understandably has fallen off of its win pace given its injuries.
- Philadelphia & Milwaukee have been too inconsistent to maintain a top 10 status. But as you can see, most teams are clustered around 45 wins.
Postscript: Frame of Reference for NBA Power Rankings
Once again: I’ve created two models. One that predicts team win percentage given a variety of statistics that I tested in a random forest model and another that’s based on hierarchical clustering. It is not a matter of who beat whom.
I should also stress that wins and losses that greatly affect a team’s net rating manifest in the final product. Therefore, if a team loses by 40, as the Magic did to the Jazz on Nov. 17, then their ranking could suffer and the opponent’s rating could flourish above expectation.
As a reminder, here’s a snapshot of the final result for the 2016-17 NBA Power Rankings: