As the Game 5 buzzer sounded and the confetti started to fall over the fans at Oracle Arena, what was long-believed finally came true. While Golden State celebrated their second title in three seasons, both over the Cleveland Cavaliers, the room I sat in fell silent. In my aunt’s living room, the surround sound softly spilling Kevin Durant’s postgame interview into the air. While disappointment should have been the reaction, the feeling was surprisingly absent. The loss was imminent. Even after a deflating Game three loss at Quicken Loans Arena, LeBron James, who would normally have words of wisdom, seemed dumbfounded. Head coach Tyronn Lue, despite what he said throughout the season, had no secret defensive schemes planned for the playoffs. The Cavaliers’ bench was once again an incredible liability and nobody had an answer for Durant’s size, speed, and scoring ability. It was a sobering series where the whole world saw how much better the Warriors are than their conference counterpart.
Everyone in the room all had the same question for me: can we beat the Warriors? It is a loaded question, one that the rest of the NBA is scrambling to figure out. For the Cavaliers, the answer is actually another question: do they have the means to improve? Cavs owner Dan Gilbert answered the question for everyone by making a critical mistake, one that has detrimental possibilities.
David Griffin did not receive a contract extension, meaning his tenure as the first Cleveland general manager in 52 years to win a championship is over. Team president Trent Redden, who spent the last 11 years with the Cavs, is also gone. This is surprising to many people, but it really shouldn’t be. Gilbert has never given a contract extension to any general manager. Danny Ferry, Chris Grant, and now Griffin all have this commonality. Maybe he wanted money and/or power that Gilbert was unwilling to fork over. It is customary, more or less, when a general manager wins a championship they get a promotion. Bob Myers of the Warriors and RC Buford of the Spurs are two examples of this. Perhaps Griffin wanted to pull off a big trade, or tried resisting one Gilbert wanted to make. Regardless of the reasoning, he was handed a pink slip before an incredibly pivotal summer.
Cleveland has no general manager. They went through draft night without one, discussed significant trades without one, and signed free agents without one. Even if Chauncy Billups joins the front office as rumored, he would still have to hire a GM. But what free agent would want to come to a team who has dysfunction, limited cap space, and a roster that was the oldest in the league? LeBron carries a lot of influence and he advocated for Griffin to get a contract extension and was not consulted on the final decision. James normally reaches out to players and recruits them to Cleveland, but he is not doing that this time around. LeBron wants the front office to do its job, a very reasonable expectation. Despite the jokes, James has very little front office power. After whiffing on the Paul George and Jimmy Butler fronts, Cleveland will more than likely roll out a very similar team from last year.
And even with the same team, the Cavs still rule the Eastern Conference. But, because this team cannot compete with the Warriors as is, the same result will occur. Albert Einstein defines insanity as the act of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. This roster has little to no wiggle room and cannot make drastic changes without shipping out top talent. Kevin Love’s name was dangled in a potential trade for George or Butler, but those talks didn’t get very far. Aside from Love, there isn’t anybody below him on the roster that has enough value that would have improved the Cavs. Instead, James watched George and Butler get traded to Oklahoma City and Minnesota respectively. That’s not to say either of those players were the difference between winning and losing in the Finals either. Even if George or Butler were in a Cavs uniform next season, it is impossible to say Cleveland would be drastically better off against Golden State. The Warriors are dramatically better than the Cavs and present LeBron with the biggest hurdle ever.
When James came back to Cleveland and Andrew Wiggins was shipped out for Love, championships were supposed to be the next step. And while one ring was enough to fuel an entire year’s worth of parties and celebrations in Northeast Ohio, the current state of Cleveland’s title chances does not look great. James has always said that he will continue to play as long as the team is doing whatever necessary to win titles. He is not in this to mentor players in his twilight years, nor accept division titles and winning a playoff round or two. It is championship or bust every season. Dan Gilbert sort of made amends from his atrocious comic-sans letter on the night James left for Miami, but not retaining Griffin is a startling move. It implies that he is no longer willing to pony up for top-level talent. There was no reason the man who assembled a championship roster not be retained, no matter the cost. It was an irrational move that may make James think twice before staying in Cleveland beyond next season.
But, I think it is unlikely that LeBron leaves. He will be 33, approaching 34, when his contract is up. Assuming he still wants a shot at a ring, the Eastern Conference is the place to be. The path to the Finals still looks clear, despite the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards gaining momentum. The Raptors are grasping at straws. They’re still trying to build on their Conference Finals appearance two years ago. The Pacers and Hawks are in full on rebuild mode since both Paul George and Paul Millsap jumped ship.
The Cavs still have a solid roster with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love as supporting stars. Lue has James’ respect, and LeBron has shown support for the coaching staff. There is no reason to leave the Cavaliers from a winning perspective because they offer the best shot to at least get to the Finals. The Western Conference will be a dogfight for the entire season, with the bottom four seeds being a complete toss up. LeBron has never ventured out West and I do not think that path is in play.
What about the Lakers? Despite the vicious rumors and speculation, LeBron is almost certainly not going out West to La La land. Los Angeles has an exciting core, but they will not be a playoff team by the time James can join their roster. Even if Paul George dons the purple and gold, it will be difficult for a 34-year old James to lead a roster of youngsters to the promise land. He was barely able to do it with All-Star caliber players in Love and Irving, it will be borderline impossible with Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. If winning is still the goal for LeBron, and there is every reason to believe it will be, then going to the Lakers is a terrible idea. The Clippers were considered another destination, but they’re in a pivot-rebuild after trading Chris Paul.
There is every indication that LeBron James will end his career where it began, in the Cavalier wine and gold. He is a figure within the community and an inspiration to many. His characteristics go beyond basketball. When he left for Miami, it was for the sole purpose of learning how to win. Then when he left Miami, the goal was to bring a championship home. He has completed both of those goals, but what would be the attraction of leaving again? Even though he fulfilled his promise to Cleveland to bring a championship to the city, it would be career suicide to leave Ohio. However, it is possible the one championship is all he will be able to bring home. The Warriors are perhaps the best team ever constructed and the Cavaliers are strapped for money. The window to win another ring may be slammed shut. And sure, plenty of analysts felt the Cavs’ window closed when Golden State was in the midst of a 73-9 season. We know how that ended.
This time feels different.
As the rest of the league prepares for life after the Warriors reign of terror, the Cavs’ future seems bleak. Once James retires, Irving and Love are likely gone in some fashion. Kyrie in particular quietly voiced to his Team USA basketball teammates that he wants out of Cleveland once James departs. The now former front office regime mortgaged the near future in terms of draft picks in favor of win-now players. The idea was that by the time LeBron retires, the Cavs would be back in the draft and able to rebuild adequately. If that process is sped up and James leaves sooner than expected, the Cavs will be saddled with a financially bloated roster, very few young players, and few draft selections. Between expensive contracts for underwhelming players and the death-machine Warriors grinding up every team in their path, the Cavaliers could very well be back to irrelevancy sooner than later.
This is not to say all hope is lost. Cleveland, barring a huge shift in the Eastern Conference, will likely make the NBA Finals once again. Given the Cavs’ resource deficiency, they really have one course of action: run the whole thing back with some minor tweaks. The bench badly needs to be infused with more athleticism and defensive energy. J.R. Smith staying healthy and finding a consistent shot paired with Iman Shumpert building on his good defense from the Finals would help the weak bench. Kyrie Irving, who spent last summer playing in the Olympics, is getting some well-deserved rest this time around. Tristan Thompson missed the first games of last season which was a sign that the team needs a backup center. Only one of these tasks is a guarantee, and two others are merely forms of hope.
Reality is harsh. The Cavaliers and David Griffin did whatever was necessary to win a ring, which they did. The Kevin Love trade is vindicated, despite what people will say about Andrew Wiggins’ future in this league. Cleveland erased a 52-year championship nightmare, and that cannot be taken away. Given that, it is unfair to be upset that the Cavaliers have spent themselves into a dangerous corner that is not only very small but filled with dynamite. LeBron is propping open the championship window and has been for a while, but there are more forces pushing down than ever before. There is no telling what the Cleveland Cavaliers will look like for the 2018-2019 season, but it could either be an unmitigated disaster, or a threat.
