For the last decade, the Charlotte Hornets have found themselves stuck in the middle of an underwhelming Eastern Conference. For some, this is seen as the price of being owned by Michael Jordan. A man with the rich history of winning and the all-powerful brand he has will not tolerate losing, certainly after the Charlotte Bobcats era. Partially, though, this was due to the historically awful drafting of former general manager Rich Cho. His errors were continuous and reached their depressing plateau by taking Malik Monk over Donovan Mitchell in his final draft with the team. Monk has improved under James Borrego but, regardless, it wasn’t exactly the first miss by Cho. When it keeps happening, it’s no longer an accident.
Mitch Kupchak came in to replace Cho and the former Lakers man was handed the worst situation in the entire NBA. The Hornets were nowhere near bad enough to outright tank, but they were also paying a lot of money to average players. They were paying the majority of their cap to Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller, four players who have combined for zero all-star appearances. It looked a hard situation to get out of, so the key was to find good building blocks with the draft capital he already had.
Despite the fact Kupchak has had two lottery picks, he may have found his best building block via a trade many would have thought to be pretty meaningless at the time. In the second round of the 2018 NBA Draft when the majority stop watching, the Hornets traded two second-round picks to acquire the rights to Devonte Graham who had been selected by the Atlanta Hawks. Graham has been the Hornets’ best player to start the year, and he has ranked well offensively by tape, statistics, and advanced metrics.
The most notable thing about Graham is, to put it simply, he fits the hell out of the modern NBA. He can shoot from all-types of scenarios and has unlimited range, already gaining the respect of veteran defenders early in the shot clock. He is second in the NBA in three-pointers made at this early stage of the season, and should not be overlooked.
Due to his high usage percentage, the majority of his looks are coming while he has the ball in his hands. Graham’s shooting numbers are both startling in terms of efficiency and frequency. 54 percent of his looks come from beyond the arc which puts him in the 84th percentile. He’s in the 29th percentile for shot attempts at the rim and the 18th percentile for shot attempts from the corners. This illustrates the fact that Graham is doing the majority of his work on the ball and in high situations. Of the top 25 guards in usage percentage, only Kemba Walker has a higher frequency of overall shots coming from downtown.
What is most striking about Graham though is how he somewhat dwarfs the departed Kemba Walker in terms of efficiency. Graham is shooting 43 percent from downtown which is one of the most surprising statistical outliers of the season which lands him in the 96th percentile. Walker is shooting an impressive 40% from downtown which sees him in the 76th percentile. Not only is Graham shooting threes at a rate not bettered by many players with similar usage percentages, but he’s knocking them down at a very high volume.
Many think the modern point guard needs to be able to live at the line. This has been amplified even more by the impressive rise of the Houston Rockets style of basketball led by James Harden. For the Hornets, Graham’s lack of activity inside is more because of the style than any of his own particular failings. James Borrego doesn’t want the ball sticking, so he prefers Graham to navigate a variety of high screens. Not only does this open opportunity for Graham to use his quick release to punish defenses, but it also keeps the paint open for their young athletic wing duo of Miles Bridges and PJ Washington to cut to the basket. The Hornets don’t have a lot right now due to the nature of their rebuild, but Graham’s gravity is their best weapon and they use it well by setting a variety of back screens and timing their cuts and rolls well.
His range is simply unlimited at this point, and the go-to plays at the end of games are simply for him to bring the ball up the court and potentially pull up from very deep range. This is good for the Hornets who lack any other players who can consistently win in the half-court. It opens up space for back cuts and high double-drag sets that Borrego runs. The play below is an example of his unlimited range.
This was in one of the early games of the year, in arguably the game that Graham announced himself to the masses. The Pacers defensive scheme is arguably the most flexible in the NBA, but Graham’s unlimited range simply stunned them. Here he takes a simple high screen and nails the three from deep. The confidence is there and James Borrego gives him the license to shoot from anywhere.
Every team has ‘early offense’ sets that they use in transition. The Oklahoma City Thunder, for example, run early post-ups to give Steven Adams an early advantage. The Brooklyn Nets run a variety of looks out of the pistol formation to free up shooters. The Hornets early offense is highly simple – let Devonte Graham bring the ball up and give him the green light. The idea is to keep the defense high up as opposed to forcing them to drop into the paint. This opens up space for cutters but also for easy options for Graham to initiate a pick and roll to punish defenders who may not be comfortable high on the perimeter. Below is the simplest outcome of the Hornets early offense, as Devonte Graham nails a pull-up three against Ben Simmons.
Most defenses want to retreat into the paint in transition, but Graham’s gravity and ability to hit from deep means they must engage early. This is a great weapon for a team with young players to have because it allows them to use their speed and athleticism in transition situations.
As Graham garners more respect, expect plays like the one below to be more common.
The Hornets force the miss and grab the rebound. Malcolm Brogdon has to stay relatively high. Myles Turner also plays high, which opens up space for Cody Martin to make a backdoor cut across him. Though this read wasn’t used on this occasion it’s still a highly dangerous early offensive option. On this occasion, Graham stops at the sort of area he’d usually shoot from, and fires a pass to Malik Monk which eventually ends in an easy layup for Cody Zeller. The Hornets had a clear man advantage on this situation but what unfolded is relevant to the value of Devonte Graham. I used an earlier play from the first time the Hornets met the Indiana Pacers, notice how different the defense is in the second play. In the first possession, the Pacers stood off him and maintained the structure Nate McMillan likes. On the latter possession, they made sure they played higher. This stops Graham but opens up the opportunity for secondary actions. If the Hornets can find some better wings and big men, they could wreak havoc in transition.
Something James Borrego does in early offense situations when Marvin Williams and Devonte Graham are both on the court is have Williams be available for a high screen. This pulls the defense up because Graham needs minimal room for a screen, but they are also worried about Marvin Williams prowess from downtown as he shoots relatively well for a big man, you can see how this combination troubles teams on the play below.
The Hornets move in transition, but look at how high Derrick Rose, Luke Kennard, and Andre Drummond are playing for Detroit. They are terrified of Graham’s ability to punish them from very deep, but they are also worried about Marvin Williams. Bismack Biyombo benefits from the situation as he ghosts between the defenders and beats a slow rotation from the corner defender to get the easy dunk. Derrick Rose was very aggressive over the screen and Luke Kennard was shaded towards the three-point line. To put it simply, teams are treating Devonte Graham like a star player in early offense situations. If they don’t, he usually makes them pay. This huge shot down the stretch against the Nets shows what can happen if you don’t close him quickly enough in transition.
Graham can win in the half-court too. All of his value right now relates to the fact he can pull up from anywhere. He flashes something that is key for a guard to be elite in the modern NBA- the ability to consistently beat drop coverage. We have seen him do it mostly in transition. The great guards can do it in half-court situations, and Graham has continuously shown the ability to do this as you can see below.
The Nets are known for their drop coverage scheme, even more so now that DeAndre Jordan is in town as he can’t defend above the elbow. On this occasion, Graham turns a simple 1-5 pick and roll into a mid-range jumper. His mechanics are great and he transitions into his shots really well. If teams are dropping against Graham, they are simply not doing their homework. He can shoot from anywhere. As the Hornets are a young team, Borrego keeps the reads relatively basic. Most plays start with a Devonte Graham high touch, but this is not a player who is fully reliant on being effective in transition.
Due to the fact he is the Hornets only real ball-handler with ability, his off-ball usage is minimal. It has started to improve as the team gets more comfortable giving PJ Washington more touches, and this is where Graham showcases off-ball flashes. Something he has shown in his usage of the variety of ball screens James Borrego utilizes is the ability to attack closeouts, which is something else that is key for him to reach and maintain offensive stardom. You can see his abilities here in the play below.
Charlotte gives the illusion that they are using Graham as a screener to set up a Miles Bridges post up. Instead, Cody Zeller sets a down screen that frees up Graham for a three-pointer. He shows the two things needed to attack a closeout- good footwork and agility. He pump fakes Dillon Brooks and drills the mid-range jumper with ease. His off-ball usage will increase as the Hornets find other building blocks, but the signs are there to suggest he can do more than just shoot unassisted pull-up jumpers. He plays well within a team setting and can punish closeouts and simply give defenses headaches. Again, these plays are minimal and hard to find, but they exist in a very unique situation for a sophomore second-round pick to find themselves in.
The area where many think Graham may need to develop in is attacking downhill, notably finishing at the rim. He ranks in the 15th percentile in terms of his scoring efficiency at the rim among fellow combo guards. Context must be utilized when studying Graham’s statistics. James Borrego’s biggest fear for this Hornets team is having the ball stick, so he does not want his lead guard charging into the paint and finding himself hitting a brick wall. Due to the lack of a true roll threat, this could happen quite often as teams will ‘ice’ the drive without any real consequence. Because of this, the majority of the Hornets core offense is designed to create jump shots for Graham which in turn leaves driving lanes for the likes of PJ Washington and Miles Bridges to attack. So ultimately Graham really rarely sees great driving lanes at this point in his career as his team’s best weapon is his shooting, so he spends as much time behind the perimeter as possible.
Despite the numbers not being great, there are some flashes suggesting he can become a downhill scorer when that is what the Hornets offense requires him to be. Take the play below as an example.
The Hornets look as if they’re going to bring the corner shooter up off two screens. Instead, Devonte Graham attacks downhill. He immediately gets defended well by Coby White, who doesn’t give him much of a lane to the basket. Graham, however, shows good acceleration and readjusts before finishing with his off-hand. Being able to readjust and move to a secondary play after the first fails is an area where many young guards struggle. Graham can not only find a plan B when driving, but he is willing to move the ball on, he’s not a ball hog by any means.
Where Graham’s improvement in driving might become important is in terms of fully empowering the Hornets sets. Right now out of their high screens he almost always ends up shooting a pull-up jumper. His high rankings in many offensive metrics suggest this is not necessarily a bad thing. He ranks 11th in Basketball Index’ Offensive player impact plus-minus metric, which suggests he is a player who is impacting the game and not just putting up the dreaded empty statistics on a mediocre team. But if Graham can continue to develop as a downhill player, he might genuinely become one of the most feared players in the NBA. As he gets better he will see higher coverage, and something he can do to exploit players who are not quite comfortable blitzing is to just use his agility to blow past them. He does this to Jarrett Allen on the play below.
Allen is a solid defender who is good in a drop coverage scheme. He’s uncomfortable pushing too high and Graham exposes it here. The Hornets set two screens at the top of the key and Graham attacks the side Jarrett Allen is on. He glides his way past Allen and backs his body into Allen when he is recovering into the paint. This limits Allen’s wingspan and length and gives Graham a better opportunity to finish the layup. On this occasion, Graham used his leverage really well to finish over a good shot-blocker who is much bigger than he is. On the surface, it’s a simple pick-and-roll action, but a deeper study shows that Graham is very shifty and intelligent in terms of manipulating Jarrett Allen.
Again, these plays are hard to find simply because his usage is generally perimeter-based. But there is enough agility and body control to suggest he can punish blitzes when the big who is blitzing is not comfortable such as Jarrett Allen. Beating good blitzing big men will require an improvement in the Hornets personnel.
On the whole, Devonte Graham has impressed early on, and he is the biggest building block for the Hornets with a realistic path to becoming a top 20 player in the NBA. He has unlimited range and has already hit some big game winners from the Damian Lillard or Trae Young range. He doesn’t get much of an opportunity to show what he can do as a driver, but he has good body control and the ability to stop-start which means we can project him to potentially be an above-average finisher in the future which will be just fine due to his elite ability as a three-point shooter, especially on pull-up jumpers. Either way, Mitch Kupchak found some insane value in the second-round, and Graham is the runaway favorite for the Most Improved Player award at this point in time.
