Philadelphia 76ers Have a Difficult Decision at Number Three in the 2017 NBA Draft

May 17th, 2017 will always be remembered in Philadelphia as the day when the picks swapped, the moment in which Sam Hinkie’s plan to control the fate of Sacramento Kings became reality. Despite little chances at first, Kings’ pick jumped up in the top three, giving the Philadelphia 76ers the opportunity to swap their 5th pick with another top three selection. For the fourth straight season, the 76ers will pick in the top three and for the will continue their streak of picking

But despite the easy irony on that infamous trade that the Kings decided to make two years ago to clear cap room in order to sign Rajon Rondo, Marco Belinelli, and Kosta Koufos, Sacramento now sits in the top-10 of the draft with two picks, no.5 & no.10, while the Sixers hold a very difficult decision to make at no.3, likely the most delicate position in the upcoming draft.

With Markelle Fultz likely heading to the Boston Celtics as number one overall pick and Lonzo Ball, with his omnipresent father alongside him, expected to be selected by the Los Angeles Lakers at number two, there’s not a clear choice for the Sixers at number three. The team desperately needs shooting around Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid but at the same time, they cannot afford a player not able to give his contributions on the defensive side or a ball stopper that needs too much offensive weight on his shoulders to be effective. So the question is: who is the best guy for the Philadelphia 76ers in this draft at number three?

If Philadelphia 76ers want to go in the direction of best player available, they’d probably draft Josh Jackson , the 6’8” forward coming out of Kansas. Jackson has the potential to become the kind of 3&D player that is really thriving in the league right now. He’s an outstanding defender, with great athleticism and the ability to defend multiple positions. He’s very good in transition, he can create for his teammates and he’s a pretty good rebounder for his size. In his only season at Kansas, he averaged 19.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game, shooting 45% from the field and 82% from the free-throw line.

Despite all the good numbers we listed, there’s still a big concern about Jackson and that’s his shooting ability. Jackson finished the season shooting a very solid 39.7% from the three-point line but his shooting motion doesn’t feel natural at all, it looks really forced and it clearly needs some work on it. This, of course, could be a problem for the Philadelphia 76ers. With Ben Simmons already known as an amazing passer but not exactly as a shooter and other wings like Robert Covington and Dario Saric who had pretty bad shooting slumps last season, Sixers clearly need reliable shooters on the perimeter and Jackson won’t probably become that kind of shooter, especially not at the first stage of his NBA career. Also, Jackson does come into the NBA with some off-court issues which seem to be resolved right now.

Regardless the doubts about the shooting, Jackson likely remains the best player available at no.3 for Philadelphia and likely the smartest choice for the team in this moment.

Another top candidate for the no.3 pick is Jayson Tatum, as also Joel Embiid stated in a recent interview. The forward out of Duke is probably the best scorer in this draft, standing at 6’8” Tatum killed basically every defender in his freshman season, using his great ability to score in isolation. His footwork is already impressive for such a young guy and thanks to his size he can post up pretty effectively, in fact, as noted by DraftExpress, with 1.30 points per possession generated in the post-Tatum ranked in the 99th percentile in terms of efficiency. But considering Sixers’ current roster Tatum doesn’t look like the perfect fit. First of all, he’s still an inconsistent three-point shooter, he only averaged 34.2% from outside of the arc in his freshman season.

Tatum trusts way more his iso game at the elbow than his outside shooting, the 40% of his non-transition field-goal attempts came from the mid-range but he only made 40% of them, per DraftExpress, not exactly a very effective result. That’s the biggest issue with his game so far, Tatum is a ball stopper and risks to choke way too much the spacing of a team like the Philadelphia 76ers, especially next to another non-shooting prospect like Ben Simmons. In addition to the spacing issue, there’s also concern regarding Tatum’s decision making. Clearly relying more on his offensive ability, Tatum finished the season with only 62 assists, at the same time he also committed 76 turnovers. At this stage of his development, he doesn’t make better the players around him and that’s a big issue.

If Tatum wants to translate his game at the NBA level, he needs to adapt and become a better shooter from the perimeter, we’ve already seen how many players that based their game in the mid-range area started to struggle with the modern style of the game.

Probably the best fit for the current roster, Malik Monk is one of the best pure shooters in this draft. The 6’3” guard finished the season with 39.7% from the three-point line, he can be deadly as a spot-up shooter and coming off the screens. His quickness also helps him in being a reliable scorer in transition. But during his freshman season at Kentucky, Monk has struggled to create enough danger from the dribble, especially against solid defenders. On the defensive side his lack of size could be a huge problem, he hasn’t the physicality to limit bigger SG’s and the opponent will take advantage of his inability to guard bigger players. Moreover, despite his quickness, Monk is not an elite athlete. His ability to finish at the rim is very questionable at this stage, he finished with 50.9% at the rim in this season, mainly because he doesn’t know how to absorb contact against the bigger opponents. Maybe using the third overall pick for such a specialist isn’t the best idea for Philadelphia. The ideal range for Monk should be 5-7, with the third pick the Sixers should look for a more versatile player.

Other options could be represented by guys like De’Aaron Fox or Jonathan Isaac but both names seem unlikely for Philadelphia. Fox is super quick and one of the best defenders in this draft but he simply can’t shoot from the three-point line, and as we said before Sixers clearly need shooters. In addition, Fox is a point guard who needs the ball in his hands to be effective and the Sixers want to use Ben Simmons as de-fact PG next season. Fox doesn’t look like a good fit at all for the team. Same history but with different reasons for Isaac. The forward out of Florida State is a very versatile player, can play both SF and PF but at NBA level is mainly a 4. He can shoot the ball and has an impressive defensive potential, thanks, both to his frame and his defensive I.Q, but he’d be another big man in a team filled with big men and forwards that can play at 4 (Saric, Simmons, Covington).

Of course, Philadelphia may decide to go in a different direction and simply trading the pick for a more experienced player but that doesn’t look like the most likely scenario right now. As we analyzed in the piece, there’s probably not a clear choice at number three for the Sixers, every prospect has his pros and flaws. Philadelphia can’t afford to waste such an important pick, so the next month will be crucial for the team. Maybe the perfect doesn’t exist at all but Bryan Colangelo and his staff need to weigh their next decision very carefully if they don’t want to waste the pick swap.