2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 4

NFL Power Rankings
Matt Ryan and the Falcons are in the thick of the NFC South race, but they can’t afford to lose any more ground than they already have. (Bob Donnan/ USA TODAY)

It’s still a little early to draw any big conclusions about this NFL season and a lot of teams. However, we’re learning something new every week. We’re still not big on drastically moving any team up or down the NFL Power Rankings, but there are some things that are too hard to ignore. Week 3 brought some unexpected outcomes, and as you’ll see, we wrestle with how to handle those. In all, Week 4 is a big week as, after the conclusion of this week, the season will essentially be a quarter over. Look for a bit of a reset next week, but for now, here’s how we think teams are arranged in the NFL hierarchy:

2018 NFL Power Rankings, Week 4; Tier 1: The Front-Runners

1 Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

Last week marked the first time of the new L.A. football era that the Rams and Chargers played each other. As expected, the Rams came away a convincing winner. Now that they won the NFL battle for Los Angeles, they can set their sights on the rest of the league. Wondering whether this L.A. team can push for a perfect regular-season record isn’t crazy anymore.

2 Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

Every week, people keep wondering when Patrick Mahomes’ performance will come back down to earth. Every week, he puts up another absurd stat line. Though their defense is lacking, they probably have the most dangerous offense in football. That dynamic makes them more fascinating, not less. But whether or not the defense will start costing them games remains to be seen.

(Obviously, a lot can – and will – change before the end of the season, but a Rams/Chiefs Super Bowl is looking like it would be an endlessly fun game.)

Tier 2: The Legacy Acts

3 Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

The Eagles came away with a victory in Week 3, but it was a closer-than-necessary win against the Colts. As far as their high ranking, their performance this season might not merit it, but outside of the two established teams already listed, it feels like the rest of the league is a bit of a toss-up. Thus, we’re going back to last year to dole out benefit-of-the-doubt points. In that regard, Philly gets more credit than anybody.

4 New England Patriots (2-1)

New England knows more than any team a successful season is a long-term proposition. Week 3 handed the Pats a bad loss at the hands of the Lions, but with Josh Gordon now in the building and Julian Edelman being able to get back on the field in the coming weeks, we’re guessing this team has a breakout game coming in the next few weeks. At least offensively. The defense remains a question mark, but they made it to the Super Bowl last year with arguably a weaker defense, so they are able to compensate.

Tier 2.5: The NFC South

5 Carolina Panthers (2-1)

This is one of two teams that have the early bye this week (Washington being the other). So the Panthers can sit back and watch what the rest of the division does. Despite the NFC South being the NFL’s most talented division, it feels like Carolina is the one team that we’re almost certain will appear in one of the top two spots. Which is to say: Whether they win the division title or not, the division title will run through Carolina.

6 New Orleans Saints (2-1)

Unless you expected the Saints to go undefeated, it feels like despite being 2-1 they’re considered a disappointment to this point. Some of that is fair, as their defense hasn’t come close to matching their 2017 performance. But there’s plenty of time for them to figure it out. The ceiling here is still as high as any in the league.

7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a nightmare start to last Monday’s game against the Steelers. However, it’s encouraging that the Bucs still managed to make it a close, three-point game. Out of the four teams in the NFC South, Tampa’s place feels the most volatile, but even in defeat, they’ve been nothing short of impressive this season.

8 Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Rookie receiver Calvin Ridley has emerged as an additional weapon next to Julio Jones. The Falcons also have a really nice running back combo that brings a diverse set of skills to the table between them. However, their defense has trouble getting stops when they need them most, as evidenced by their overtime loss to the Saints in Week 3. That either needs to get fixed or may ultimately be their downfall.

Tier 3: The Now-or-Nevers

9 Washington Football Team (2-1)

The odds of Washington unseating Philadelphia as the division champs still appears to be a longshot. Beyond that, with all the talent in the NFC South, a scenario in which Washington works their way into the NFC playoff picture may prove too tough. They have, however, done what they’ve needed to in order to be in that situation. Consistency may be an issue here, though.

10 Green Bay Packers (1-1-1)

Running back Aaron Jones gave the Packers a spark out of the backfield in his first game of 2018. But they still seem hesitant to use him – or any of their running backs – in a way that suggests they have full confidence in them. That would help while Aaron Rodgers is playing on one leg. This week offers an interesting test for Green Bay: One would think a game against the Bills is a chance to get some things going in the right direction and get a W. However, it’s the same Buffalo team that destroyed the Vikings.

11 Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1)

Are the Vikings as good as we thought? To start the season, Minnesota was looked like a contender for the NFC Super Bowl bid. However, they’ve beaten a 49ers squad who aren’t as good as we thought (with or without Jimmy Garoppolo), tied a Packers team that could get filed under “Are we sure they’re good or not?” in their own right, and then suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in NFL history to the Bills. It’s really been a bizarre season for the Vikes so far.

12 Miami Dolphins (3-0)

So far, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the talk of the NFL in terms of surprise winning teams. But that hides how unexpected it is that this Dolphins team is undefeated thus far. Miami has some “FitzMagic” of their own in the form of defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is one of the early leaders for Defensive Rookie of the Year (along with the Chargers’ Derwin James). It wouldn’t appear like there’s a lot of believers, either, as 3-0 Miami is still a touchdown (or more) underdog against the Patriots. As far as the NFL hierarchy resting on one Week 4 game, the Dolphins/Pats game is as big as they get.

13 Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

To this point, the Ravens are second to only the Rams in terms of point differential. However, that number is still wildly misleading due to Week 1’s lopsided win. If that proves to hold up over a bigger sample size though, Baltimore will be moving up in these rankings.

14 Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

The Bengals have played solid football this season. But solid may no longer get it done. Being just on the good side of the median line seems appropriate for now. But we’re willing to bet they’ll be at least five spots higher or lower in six weeks. Why? Because their upcoming schedule is on the road in Atlanta, home for Miami, home for Steelers, on the road against the Chiefs, then home games versus the Bucs, Saints, and Ravens. By the end of that stretch, Cincy will have either proved themselves legit contenders or things will have gone south to the extent they might not be able to rebound.

15 Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1)

Trade talks revolving around Le’Veon Bell surfaced over the past week. He’s a tough piece to trade though. The new team is risking getting him as a rental or has to be willing to not only give up pieces for him but willing to break the bank to get him to stay. Pittsburgh is in a weird situation, but their problems only start with Bell not being there. Defense and depth are major concerns.

16 Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

We’re willing to give the Jags a break for last week’s six-point performance against the Titans. They were dealing with a ton of injuries to key players. Still, we’re not sure how much better their offense is at full strength. This team can’t afford to let winnable games slip through the cracks like last week.

Tier 4: The Frustration

17 Chicago Bears (2-1)

It would seem the Bears have all the pieces in place to be really competitive. And they are to some extent. But until they prove they are capable of winning a game with the passing game at least every now and again there will be a cap on how high they can be ranked. That might be a little higher than where they’re at now, but not much.

18 Tennessee Titans (2-1)

Credit to the Titans for finding ways – albeit not visually pleasing – to win. Last week’s 9-6 victory was a pretty gutsy performance for a team that never seems to know who’s gonna be at QB. That can only go so far, though.

19 Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)

L.A.’s “other” team is one of the league’s hardest to judge. They’ve lost to the Chiefs and Rams (the top-ranked teams in this list, for what it’s worth), and have beaten the Bills (one of the worst-ranked teams on this list). That’s a really uneven schedule. We’ll be able to better gauge this squad as the schedule evens out a bit. That could be a while though, as the Titans are the only team the Chargers face over the next six weeks that currently have a winning record.

20 Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

Dallas has a defense that most teams would envy. However, their offense is about the opposite of that. We’re not all that convinced the level of play on the defense is sustainable all season, so look for them to stay well below the halfway mark in these NFL Power Rankings going forward.

21 Denver Broncos (2-1)

Denver’s Week 1 win against the Seahawks doesn’t look so good in hindsight. Still, 2-1 puts them in line for a wildcard spot. If the Broncos are for real, the schedule is set up pretty nicely for them going forward.

22 Detroit Lions (1-2)

Despite a nice win against New England, the Lions still get a low ranking. The win over the Pats screamed of something that Matt Patricia geared up for since taking the job in Detroit, and a game Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about. And it showed. The Lions could use that game a jumping off point for a successful season from here on out, or they could get trapped into not being able to reach that level – emotionally or physically – again. We’re not sure that performance is indicative of their talent level, or lack of.

23 New York Giants (1-2)

Beyond Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley, the G-Men are devoid of talent, except for a few other young players who have had a nice showing so far. We’ll continue to say what we’ve said all along, this team might be pretty well set up for the future, just not for the present.

24 Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

The Seattle Seahawks downfall might be uglier than anticipated. Aside from Doug Baldwin (who’s been injured but maybe coming back this week), they’re essentially down to one difference-maker on offense (Russell Wilson) and one of defense (Earl Thomas). That doesn’t get you very far in the NFL these days.

Tier 5: The Hopefuls

25 Cleveland Browns (1-1-1)

Ladies and gentlemen, the Baker Mayfield era! This feels like it’s going to be a lot of fun, for better or worse.

26 San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

With Jimmy Garoppolo now out, things might get worse before they get better. We can’t necessarily move them down (to the extent they can be moved lower) based on projecting what they’ll look like without their QB. However, expect that move down to happen in the coming weeks.

27 New York Jets (1-2)

If you think the Jets’ situation was going to improve, don’t look at their schedule. Things don’t get any easier – aside from their two remaining games against the Bills. This team might only be favored in two or three games the rest of the year.

28 Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

We’ve waited patiently for the return of Andrew Luck. Even though the Colts don’t have much around him. However, it should be concerning that Indy brought in Jacoby Brissett to throw the last-second Hail Mary. There’s probably a good reason for that, but one of those reasons might be that they still don’t really think Luck is back to a full 100% health. If he’s not by now, maybe he never will be. This is a Colts team dealing with a new normal at quarterback.

Tier 6: The Cross-Offs

29 Houston Texans (0-3)

The Texans were one of the teams coming off a losing season that we were high on. That was a bad choice. Despite J.J. Watt rounding (back) into form, they still struggle in a lot of areas. It turns out “Houston Texans” and “rebuild” may be redundant, yet inseparable terms.

30 Oakland Raiders (0-3)

If this were pro wrestling, Jon Gruden’s heel turn would be that of legend. He pulled it off to perfection.

31 Buffalo Bills (1-2)

As impressive as this team was in beating the Vikings, it was far more embarrassing on Minnesota’s side than impressive on the Bills’ behalf. Maybe that’s the wrong line of thinking, but if the Bills deserve a better ranking than this, they’ll prove it in the coming weeks.

32 Arizona Cardinals (0-3)

This team had a chance to beat the Bears, but it was all for naught. However, they’re putting Josh Rosen at the helm, so we’ll try to judge them on a bit of a clean slate from here on out. Thing is, we’re not sure they got any better after Rosen came in.

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Ryan lives in Wisconsin. He was raised on a steady diet of whole milk, cheese, sports, WWF/WWE wrestling, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

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