This week continues the trend of separation in the NFL. Whereas a few weeks ago it felt like every team was .500, the league has grown more top- and bottom-heavy. Which is why more teams appear in both the top tier and bottom in this week’s NFL Power Rankings.
2017 NFL Power Rankings, Tier One: Best the League has to Offer
- Philadelphia Eagles
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia (8-1) remains on top of the NFL Power Rankings, but with more competition than in past weeks. The end of the season gets a little tougher for the Eagles, as they play the Cowboys (twice), Rams, and Seahawks.
It’s kind of weird how under-the-microscope New England (7-2) is as a team, but just keep winning. This season, there’s been injuries, poor defense, a round of “Is Tom Brady in decline?” early on in the season, and varying levels of competition for the AFC crown. But everything looks like it’s coming up Pats.
Even though it happened over the course of this season so far, doesn’t it feel like New Orleans (7-2) has miraculously reinvented itself as a football team overnight? Drew Brees and Sean Payton are still the most important people in the locker room. But an impact assault of running-back-by-committee and one of the league’s best defenses have the Saints winning differently than they have in past years but winning nonetheless.
Examining the impact of every NFL team’s rookie classhttps://t.co/VAKUNXxouX pic.twitter.com/6eofQCrJis
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 17, 2017
Tier Two: Playoff Bound
- Los Angeles Rams
- Carolina Panthers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Minnesota Vikings
The Rams (7-2) are a lock of the playoffs. But before they get there, we’ll have a healthy idea if L.A. is for real or not. The Rams play the Vikings, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks, and Titans yet. That’s a heck of a gauntlet to finish the year. That’s the type of schedule that could take the wind out of young, on-the-rise team who’s arrived before anybody anticipated. Either way, Jared Goff’s development to date has been remarkable.
Most teams ranked up this high don’t have a truly terrible loss on their record so far. Carolina (7-3), on the other hand, well … there’s still no explaining the 17-3 loss to the Bears in Week Seven. Though there’s no denying that the Panthers are a really, really good football team. It never seems like a team’s offense should get better when they play without their number one receiver, but that’s exactly what’s happened since Carolina offloaded Kelvin Benjamin.
Kansas City (6-3) has hit a low point in the season it would seem. The Chiefs’ three losses have come in the last four weeks, and their offense has fallen back to earth. Things set up quite nicely for K.C. to get back on track though. The schedule from here on out has the Chiefs playing the Giants, Bills, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, and Broncos.
It helps the case for Pittsburgh (7-2) being a contender that their division isn’t nearly as good as anticipated. The Steelers can walk to the playoffs, making sure to get healthy along the way. The rest of the AFC North has combined for as many wins as Pittsburgh to date. However, the Steelers can’t run the risk of growing complacent.
The Vikings (7-2) might have had the biggest variance in ups and downs so far this season. Case Keenum has looked phenomenal the past couple weeks, but there’s reason to be skeptical. The likelihood of a journeyman quarterback figuring it out at 29 and becoming an elite performer at his position doesn’t have much precedence.
Tier Three: Waiting for a Sign
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tennessee Titans
- Seattle Seahawks
- Dallas Cowboys
Jacksonville (6-3) is the only team in the AFC South that has a positive point differential (at +92). Plus, the Jags should add to that margin on the plus side since their next three are against Browns, Cardinals, and Colts.
This week will be a good litmus test for gauging how good the Titans (6-3) really are. On the road in Pittsburgh should provide a good challenge.
Seattle (6-3) is still in pretty good shape for a wild card spot (though the Seahawks certainly still have a chance at the division title, too). But Seattle doesn’t have much breathing room. Plus, the injuries are stacking up for Pete Carroll’s squad.
The Cowboys (5-4) can’t waste any time finding answers on offense without Ezekiel Elliott. Dak Prescott is a great start, but the once-overwhelming offensive line is all of the sudden shaky, and Prescott has never really found a good rhythm with Dez Bryant. It doesn’t help that Dallas hosts Philadelphia this week, either.
Tier Four: Zero Breaks Given
- Atlanta Falcons
- Green Bay Packers
- Detroit Lions
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Houston Texans
- Denver Broncos
- Washington Football Team
Any hope Atlanta (5-4) has of making the playoffs get dashed pretty quickly when you glance at the schedule. The Falcons exist in far, far worse position than the Rams, but like L.A., Atlanta’s remaining games are just brutal. Besides two against Tampa Bay, Atlanta takes on Seattle, Minnesota, New Orleans (twice!), and Carolina. The Falcons basically play the NFL schedule version of the American Gladiators’ “Eliminator.”
The Packers (5-4) play bad football without Aaron Rodgers. But bad football can still be kind of fascinating. Seeing if Green Bay can stay alive long enough for a Rodgers comeback is one of the most compelling storylines to be played out from now until the postseason.
The Lions’ (5-4) win against the Browns was deceiving if you weren’t paying attention. The final score wasn’t particularly close (38-24), but the game was close/tied much of the way. Hard to consider that a “win” for Detroit in anything other than the broadest possible definition of the word. Despite a relatively easy schedule, the Lions haven’t shown much as far as the ability to reach the playoffs.
Count the Ravens (4-5) as a team like Detroit that is still alive and has a very manageable schedule. Baltimore also – somewhat surprisingly – sports a positive point differential (+19). But that number is skewed a bit by a couple blowout shutouts to pretty weak teams. It’s unlikely that the Ravens have the firepower to add enough victories to make squeak into the playoffs.
Buffalo (5-4) made the pretty odd decision to bench quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The QB isn’t elite by any means, but he’s above-average by any measure, and he’s one of the main reasons the Bills are still fighting for position in the playoffs.
There was a ton of buzz around the Texans (3-6) during Peak Deshaun Watson. And they’ve certainly got some big-name players (though less so with J.J. Watt not in the lineup). However, the struggles this year has shown even at full health there would probably still be significant holes in the depth chart. To really capitalize on the talent of the young stars on the Texans, their management may have to pull off a mini-rebuild around the top 15% of the roster.
Been a while since I’ve been told I’m losing my credibility so let’s fix that. Accuracy percentages for this season: pic.twitter.com/rirzmJtKsu
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) November 16, 2017
Denver (3-6) has to solve their quarterback situation before too long. Otherwise, we’ll look back years from now and wonder how much winning the Broncos left on the table during the years when they had the league’s premier defense. (Even factoring in the Super Bowl victory the defense led them to.)
Just noticed, Denver #Broncos pressure rate is down to 22nd in the league in the @SportsInfo_SIS charting. Probably biggest reason behind defensive decline this year. Very little interior pressure.
— Aaron Schatz ? (@FO_ASchatz) November 16, 2017
Washington (4-5) plenty of question marks going forward. By handling the Kirk Cousins contract situation in the manner they did, they kind of went all-in on this season. That hasn’t worked, obviously.
Tier Five: On the Wrong Side of Tomorrow
- Oakland Raiders
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Arizona Cardinals
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New York Jets
- Miami Dolphins
Games against the Patriots, Chiefs, and Eagles has Oakland (4-5) looking at an 8-8 record … at best. That’s certainly on the disappointing side for a team that has as high a aspirations as any team heading into this season.
If there’s any good that comes of the disheartening Chargers (3-6) season it’s that things may have gone so badly that the team will move back to San Diego.
The Cardinals (4-5) are pretty widely regarded as a pretty talented young team (mostly on defense). Things might not have bottomed out yet in Arizona. The roster is secretly older than you might think and nobody knows who they’ll have at quarterback going forward.
Cincinnati (3-6) faces many of the same questions as Arizona (see above). But in terms of explaining away the poor season, there are more pressing issues facing the Bengals than the Cardinals.
Amongst the reasons Tampa Bay (3-6) should question how long they’ll ride with this version of the franchise is the fact that the Bucs haven’t won a division game yet this season and remain winless on the road. Having Tampa appear this high in the NFL Power Rankings might even seem too optimistic.
While it was cute and all for the Jets (4-6) to stay alive in the playoff hunt longer than most people expected, the harsh reality of the NFL schedule hasn’t fully hit yet. The New York Jets remaining schedule includes games against Carolina, Kansas City, New Orleans, and New England. Before all is said and done, the Jets might slide back down the NFL Power Rankings and end up close to where they started.
Miami (4-5) is technically still alive for a playoff spot. But their point differential (-87) is in line with that of 1-8 teams New York Giants (-88) and San Francisco 49ers (-86). Usually, we talk about “contender or pretender” in context of winning teams, but it’s entirely possible the 2017 Miami Dolphins are the most fraudulent 4-5 team in the history of the NFL. Which is why Miami ranks dramatically lower in the NFL Power Rankings than their record might indicate.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier Six: Here We Are, Again
- Chicago Bears
- New York Giants
- Indianapolis Colts
- San Francisco 49ers
- Cleveland Browns
To the extent losing teams can call a losing season a “success,” Chicago (3-6) has every right to claim as much. The Bears can claim to have significant pieces in the right places more so than any other team in the bottom tier (and even some of those in the tier above).
The Giants (1-8) desperately need to use the remainder of the season to figure out which pieces of their roster are worthy of staying there long-term.
Indianapolis’ (3-7) situation between ownership/management and quarterback Andrew Luck might end up getting messy if accusations start (continue?) to fly. Either way, what a waste of a season for the Colts.
San Francisco (1-9) got their first win of the season in Week 10. So it’s all gravy for the 49ers now, right? Okay, maybe not. But at least they avoided the skunk (and the existence of the Browns keeps San Francisco out of the NFL Power Rankings basement).
Time is running out on Cleveland (0-9) to find a win on their schedule before the year is done. Week 12 at Cincinnati and Weeks 15-16 at home against Baltimore and on the road in Chicago look like the most likely candidates for the Browns to get a “W” on the board. Even a win probably wouldn’t move the Browns out of last place in the NFL Power Rankings, though.
