2017 NBA Playoffs Preview:
“I’m here! I’m back!”
After suffering a knee injury in the first round of the 2016 playoffs, Steph Curry returned against Portland in game four of the following round. Golden State had managed to win their first two games at home, but Portland had taken advantage of the reigning MVP’s absence by taking game three and looked to even the series. Curry had 23 points in regulation, but was obviously laboring and didn’t seem to be 100%. Portland forced overtime and was threatening to take the second game, but instead, Curry sprung back to life. In the midst of a record-setting 17-point overtime, Curry yelled those iconic words at the silenced Portland crowd. “I’m here! I’m back!” And back he was. The Warriors won the game and finished the series in five.
In the 2017 NBA Playoffs, Golden State and Portland will meet once again, and that moment won’t be forgotten by either side. Golden State will remember fondly when they reasserted their dominance, and Portland will undoubtedly have revenge on their mind. Golden State is heavily favored, but does Portland have a chance to overthrow the Western Conference kings in the 2017 NBA Playoffs?
Golden State Keys to the Series
Golden State has the best offense in the league and a top-ten defense to boot. When digging into the stats, there’s no shortage of advantages for the Warriors. Portland has a high powered offense, but Golden State has a better one. Portland has an above average defense, but Golden State has a better one. Portland has star power, but Golden State has more. You name it and the advantage probably goes towards Golden State. There’s a reason the Warriors have the best record in the NBA and Portland just finished at .500.
Golden State Weaknesses
This is a short list. The Warriors are the best team in the league, and their deficiencies are well hidden. However, the weaknesses are there and if they’re exposed in just the right way, the giants could topple.
Their number one issue is depth. After failing to cap off their historic 73-9 season with a championship last year, the Warriors sacrificed their depth in order to sign Kevin Durant without losing any of their core players. They’re still 7-8 players deep in quality NBA players which is the average for most playoff rotations, so their lack of quality players past that shouldn’t be exposed too much. However, one injury could have the potential to completely unravel the team’s structure.
Kevin Durant’s injury ultimately didn’t do as much damage as some projected, but in the playoffs, everything is magnified. Matt Barnes, Ian Clark, Patrick McCaw, and David West are not great options for important playoff minutes. They can get away with a few filler minutes here and there, but if one of those is asked to play a significant number of minutes due to injury, the Warriors may be in trouble.
The other possible Achilles heel for the Warriors is their chemistry. Durant’s injury cost them over a month of valuable time to solidify the chemistry and pecking order of a core that’s struggled to know who to look to. Golden State has copious amounts of talent, but they have apparently yet to decide whether Durant or Curry should be “the guy.” Both are past MVPs and are more than capable of handling the responsibility, but if they’re caught in between the two, neither may be able to get the job done. Check out this possession against the Grizzlies earlier this season and watch the body language of Curry, Durant, and Draymond Green. It’s not pretty. Both are past MVPs and are more than capable of handling the responsibility, but if they’re caught in between the two, neither may be able to get the job done. Check out this possession against the Grizzlies earlier this season and watch the body language of Curry, Durant, and Draymond Green. It’s not pretty.
Portland Keys to the Series
Let’s be honest, it’s going to take a lot for Portland to pull this off. If they’re going to win the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs, they’ll need to take advantage of every possible mistake the Warriors could make. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are capable of going supernova on any given night, but to match the scoring of Golden State, they’ll likely need to be special every second they’re on the court. But that’s the easy part for Portland. They’ve relied on their two stars all season long and they’ve come through rather consistently.
Portland will have to rely on their role players to step up and make a difference. Mo Harkless, Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, and Al Faroq-Aminu are all capable scorer who can make a huge impact on a game under the right circumstances. Jusuf Nurkic has been incredible since they acquired him near the trade deadline, and almost singlehandedly revitalized their season. Portland will desperately need special performances from one or more of these players to have a chance.
Portland Weaknesses
Injuries have bitten Portland big time. Ed Davis was ruled out for the season after a shoulder surgery in March, and Jusuf Nurkic has missed the last seven games with a fibular fracture in his right leg. Portland is still hoping Nurkic can play, but if he’s not 100%, it will severely wound them. The Blazers need to be at full health to have a chance against the top team in the league and they’ve already lost an important player in Ed Davis.
Another weakness for Portland is the number of free throws they give up per game. This season they finished 29th in free throws allowed at 20.8 a game. They also finished 29th in FT% allowed which means that not only do they commit a lot of shooting fouls, but they commit the against good free-throw shooters. The Warriors finished 11th overall in FT% and have three guys they know won’t miss when it matters in Curry, Durant, and Klay Thompson. If Portland can’t keep their fouls under control, they don’t have a chance.
X-Factors
There are two players who can make and break this series for their team: Jusuf Nurkic and Kevin Durant.
Durant has had limited minutes with the starters since coming back from his injury. His stats and play have looked good since returning, but it’s hard to tell if he’ll be 100% through the post-season. If Durant can come back, gel with the starting lineup, score close to or at his normal rate, and not be a defensive liability, Portland doesn’t stand a chance. Conversely, if he comes in flat-footed and messes with the groove Golden State has found themselves in, he could hamper their efforts in a big way.
Nurkic has had the best 20 games of his career in Portland and if he continues to play like that, he could give the Blazers a fighting chance. He’d be able to outclass Zaza Pachulia and his height would give him a distinct advantage against Draymond Green. If the offense runs through Nurkic, and his playmaking and scoring continues to thrive, the Warriors will have a hard time containing him. Those are big ifs coming off a major injury, but Nurkic might be the Blazer’s only chance.
Final Prediction
Golden State in 4.
Portland has a lot of talent, but the Warriors just have more. Sorry Blazers, maybe next year. The 2017 NBA Playoffs aren’t your time.
