In a recent interview with NBA.com, Kyle Kuzma was asked where he should have been drafted back in June’s NBA draft. His answer was simple but loud. “Definitely in the Top 5.”
Kuzma was selected 27th overall by the Los Angeles Lakers and I think they’re more than fine with him falling so far in the first round. He has easily outperformed his draft position and so has plenty others. With such a deep rookie class, re-drafting them would produce an almost entirely different outcome, even at the top. Kuzma has certainly started the season like a top 5 draft pick and if folks know now what they should have known when he came out of Utah after three years, he very likely could have gone top 5. He believes so, at least. I don’t anoint myself a college basketball enthusiast by any means, but I have never even heard of Kuzma’s name until this past May. But all this gets me thinking, who else should have gone top 5 if we were to re-draft based on their play through the first 15 or so games of the season?
- Which means Markelle Fultz is out in this argument, as he has played only four games.
- Also, I’m not factoring in which team will be re-drafting. This is purely based on player performance.
2017 NBA Re-Draft
5. Dennis Smith Jr.
Dennis Smith Jr. was originally selected with the number nine pick by the Dallas Mavericks and even at the time some thought that was too late in the draft (especially LeBron James). In a re-draft, I have him taking De’Aaron Fox’s place at number five, which was a legit possibility for him at the time. Smith Jr. is averaging 15.8 points per game – second among rookies – to go along with 4.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. He’s been the superior athlete that most thought he would be in the NBA; displaying tiny resemblances to the elite Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook.
Smith Jr. has carried a load for the Mavericks even as a rookie. He leads both his team and all rookies in Usage rate (29.8) and he carries a top-5 assist percentage (29.5) among rookies, as well. His rim-rattling dunks have already become a common feature for Mavericks games, attacking the basket with an undeniable force that causes would-be shot blockers to make some split-second business decisions.
4. Lonzo Ball
Lonzo Ball is universally praised while also being hated by the association at the exact same time. He was selected with the number two overall pick and while his numbers won’t exactly show it, he’s been playing like he deserved to be picked in the top-5. Ball is averaging 9.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game this season but on shooting splits of 31.3/25/50 which is inherently not good. The good (and bad) thing is his shooting numbers don’t tell the entire story.
Ball is a playmaking god on the court. He launches full-court passes that land right on the money with twice the frequency of Kevin Love. His head is always up and looking for an open teammate. They don’t even need to be open yet, Ball is great at knowing where to place the ball for his teammate before they’ve even reached that spot. He is certainly guilty of making unnecessarily sophisticated passes just for the sake of passing, where it looks nice but likely led to a turnover. Learning to play the NBA game will come over time for him and once he really gets into a grove where he can consistently knock down shots, he can display his true star potential. He’s already broke LeBron James record of youngest player to ever record a triple-double in the NBA and it won’t be his last.
3. Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell was the sweetheart of the NBA draft. He fell to the number 13 pick with the Utah Jazz, who would be completely lost without his production through the early portions of this season, especially with Gobert missing time. But it was hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t perform at a high level, and that’s exactly what he’s done. Mitchell was drafted as a pure scorer, someone who can get your team points from any spot on the floor at any moment of a game. Shooting 14.4 shots per game in just 26 minutes of action, he’s fulfilled that expectation from him. His shooting splits aren’t fantastic. 38.1/31.3/83.3 isn’t awful but it certainly isn’t great. Consistency has been the issue for him thus far. He has three games this season where he’s recorded only two points, but he also has five games with 20 or more points. He makes mistakes as a rookie does, but he’s great at forgetting his last miss. He’ll shoot five straight times up the court if the defense lets him and that’s what makes him so dangerous, but it’s also what makes him frustrating to watch.
He’s second among rookies in usage rate (29.3) and is being asked to carry a ton of the burden on offense much like Dennis Smith Jr. is. I would argue Mitchell has been a better defender than Smith Jr. this season in a similar role, as well. With Gobert out for multiple weeks, Mitchell’s role will continue to grow within an offense that has little without production from him. I don’t think many are shocked that Mitchell is playing at such a high level, but there are definitely teams wishing they hadn’t passed up on him.
2. Kyle Kuzma
He claimed he should have been top-5 and he’s been right. Kyle Kuzma has played at a consistently high level ever since the summer league games and his play has transitioned favorably to the regular season. Currently averaging 14.9 points (third-most among rookies) and 6.8 rebounds per game, Kuzma has an all-around offensive game that is hard to come by straight out of college. You can tell he’s played college ball for a few years, he looks comfortable as a player and knows his limitations, which is important for rookies. He can shoot, drive, cut, rebound, run in transition and even play modest defensgamesuzma has four games with at least 20 points and only two game with less than 10. He’s one of the more complete players you’ll ever see come out of the draft.
1. Jayson Tatum
I’m not sure if I should credit Brad Stevens or Jayson Tatum more for how well he’s played to start the season. It’s definitely a mix of both, but Tatum has looked the part of deserving the number one pick, something that didn’t seem too far out of the realm of possibility back in June. Tatum went number three in the draft and he didn’t have the “appeal” of being a number one pick, but now he’s making people question that decision.
Tatum has had a prominent role in the Celtics starting the season 13-2 (13 straight wins), considering the injuries that have taken place around him. With Hayward out for the season, Irving missing games after being elbowed in the face and Horford missing games due to the NBA’s concussion protocol, Tatum has had to perform. The Celtics haven’t exactly had a tough schedule to begin the season (they rank 26th in strength of schedule), but Tatum has outperformed his rookie counterparts, nonetheless. Tatum is averaging 14.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game on incredible shooting splits of 50/48.9/82.8. He’s fourth among rookies in Box Plus Minus at 3.2, twice as high as fifth place. He’s also fourth among rookies in PER and second in free throw rate behind only Sindarius Thornwell.
He’s not the long-taking two chucker that some thought he might be (myself included), but that’s where I think Brad Stevens comes in. Tatum was always the most NBA ready prospect in my eyes and Stevens has made sure that’s exactly how he plays. He plays within the team and lets the offense work around him without having to force shots. Besides Ben Simmons, there hasn’t been a more consistent and dangerous player than Jayson Tatum and that’s why he deserves the number one pick in this re-draft.
Congrats, Jayson, you’ve finally made it.
