There are several ways to approach making an NFL Power Rankings list. It could produce a list that measures performances week in, week out. The results in those tend to waver pretty wildly as that manner of listing can end up subject to knee-jerk reactions and overreaction to outlier performances. Or it could end up as a sort of future rankings poll where more weight is put on youth.
Here, the rule is simple: This is a ranking of how close a given team is to winning a championship, relative to the other teams in the league.
NFL Power Rankings, Tier 1: The Favorites
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
These five teams represent the handful of teams that almost everyone would consider the favorites to win the Super Bowl. There could, however, be an argument made that Patriots belong to some sort of upper-level-sub-tier all alone. But crazy things happen in the NFL. And one of these years Tom Brady is bound to regress a little (right?). But until that happens and/or Bill Belichick is longer on the Patriots’ sideline, you’ll find New England at, or near, the top of the NFL Power Rankings.
The one thing that separates this group from the next tier is that these teams should win their divisions pretty handily. That bodes well for them in terms of getting healthy for the playoffs by resting players in Week 17 and/or getting the first round bye in the postseason. Atlanta could fall prey to the infa=mous Super Bowl Hangover. Combine that with the fact that the Seahawks added more talent to their defense, and it was enough to move Seattle ahead of the NFC’s Super Bowl representative from last year.
Both Green Bay and Pittsburgh have enjoyed a lot of regular season success in past years. There’s no reason to think they won’t make a return trip to the playoffs and challenge for spots in their respective conference championship games. Though if the Packers or Steelers want to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this season, they’ll need to sustain their top-notch offensive production from previous seasons and improved efforts from their defense.
Tier 2: Pencil into the Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
It wouldn’t be surprising if any of these three teams made a run at a Super Bowl appearance. The Cowboys and Giants (obviously) are in the same division, making each of their paths to the playoffs a little tougher. The Giants’ defense might resemble that of their Super Bowl teams rather than that of their more recent average-at-best units. Which would go well with the jaw-dropping amount of talent they have catching passes on offense. Dallas can ride the best offensive line unit in the game. But the Cowboys will need Dak Prescott to keep making strides and an improved defense to crash the party at the top tier.
Likewise, the AFC West might offer the toughest challenge to whoever is the eventual winner. Right now, Oakland’s youth, upside, and ability to make explosive plays on offense and defense makes them the favorite to take the AFC West crown. Their spot in the NFL Power Rankings is particularly volatile, though.
Raider fans should exercise cautious optimism though. The looming move to Las Vegas could sour things in a hurry. There’s usually at least one team that enjoys some pre-season buzz, then proceeds to dramatically underachieve. If one were looking for a team that fits the description of a team that doesn’t live up to expectations, this year’s Raiders should tingle the spidey senses.
Mood when you find out the @Raiders are now the Las Vegas Raiders pic.twitter.com/7xxh5pF0UM
— Moreno (@Moreno) March 27, 2017
Tier 3: Wild Card Hopefuls
Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings
Denver Broncos
No American sports league is set up for so many teams to finish around .500, give or take a game or two. That’s due in part to the NFL’s comparatively truncated season. All of these teams have very intriguing strengths. But each has some significant shortcomings on their roster.
Aside from the Bucs, it seems likely that the other six teams in this tier could make up the majority of the top-ten defenses in the NFL. However, of those six (Carolina, Kansas City, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, and Denver), only Carolina heads into the season knowing for sure who the best quarterback on their roster is — and he’s coming back from injury. Weakness at the most important position is the best way to tank an otherwise impressive roster.
Tampa Bay offers the inverse problem. They’ve put all their trust in Jameis Winston (for good reason), but can’t feel totally sure their defense will offer enough support to propel their dangerous offense to the playoffs.
Tier 4: Not Quite Enough
Tennessee Titans
New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
The Titans have a nice core of young players, a solid defense, and play in the weakest division. That makes them the favorite of this group to move up the NFL Power Rankings as the season progresses. Tennessee needs to show they can sustain a playoffs-worthy passing game before they can make the leap, though.
You know how when a Sunday NFL game gets done and the network(s) switch to a close game that’s running late? And there’s a team that has the ball down six trying to drive the field to win? The team(s) with the ball in that situation are New Orleans, Cincinnati, and the L.A. Chargers. Those three teams have offenses good enough to keep games close. But, as of recently, none of them can seal the deal enough times to produce a season worthy of the postseason.
Injuries and question marks at quarterback are enough to move the Ravens and Dolphins down a full tier in this version of the NFL Power Rankings. Should either solidify their QB play, second place in their respective divisions is up for grabs. That would put them in Wild Card contention. Neither would have the talent to make any sort of noise in the playoffs though, should that scenario play out.
Tier 5: The False-Hope Five
Washington Football Team
Los Angeles Rams
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
Indianapolis Colts
Optimistic fans of these teams can probably close their eyes and envision playoff games. It’s not happening, however.
Detroit made a habit of pulling out close games last season. That is until that luck ran out. In any sport, much less one where virtually nobody plays both sides of the ball, winning close games is less about skill than luck. Proof of that is that if follow any team long enough, their record in close games will always end up around .500. The Close Game Karma Gods won’t be so kind to the Lions this time around.
The Eagles, Rams, and the football team in Washington all have some pieces that fans could point to as a reason to believe. Unfortunately, there are about 45 other players on their rosters that will have a say in how the season plays out, and that’s not great for those clubs.
The Indianapolis Colts’ sole reason to be optimistic about the season comes in the form of Andrew Luck. An injured Andrew Luck; injured Andrew Luck who nobody seems to know when he’ll be healthy. An injured Andrew Luck who nobody seems to know when he’ll be healthy with a bad roster around him.
QB concerns in Indy lead to this: a rare Colts-Patriots trade: https://t.co/sCyDPxwovt
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 2, 2017
Tier 6: Let’s Just Have the 2018 Draft Already
Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
New York Jets
Last season Jacksonville was getting some buzz as a potential sleeper team. But the new Jags ended up being the same as the old Jags (not the David-Gerrard-led, playoffs old Jags, rather the top-five-pick-in-the-draft old Jags). From where expectations were heading into last season to actual production, Blake Bortles might’ve had one of the most disappointing quarterback performances that can’t be blamed on a major injury of the last couple decades.
The Bills seemed to have a pretty decent roster at the start of last year. But eventually, the wheels came off. And the organization made the decision to make a coaching change and overhaul the roster. Whenever that happens to the extent it did in Buffalo, the sun has to set in order for a new day to come.
It wouldn’t be implausible for one of San Francisco, Chicago, or Cleveland to surprise a bit. Any of them could shock the football world and appear towards the middle in the final NFL Power Rankings of the season. But in this case, “surprise” would mean going 6-10. All three are in the middle of a rebuilding project and will use this season to sort out the players they want to keep around and who is expendable. In that sense, they’re pretty much set to play 16 more pre-season games.
As for the Jets … uh, Jets fans might want to find a college football team to become really invested in this season. You know, to distract from the collegiate-level team that’ll be playing on Sundays against real life NFL teams. (Preferably pick a college team with a potential number one NFL Draft pick on it, that way it’ll be seamless when that player is on Jets next year.) It’s gonna be a long year for the Jets. And a long scroll down for Jet fans to find their team in any NFL Power Rankings this season.
