There are a seemingly endless number of angles one can examine when considering the timing and extent of the injury to Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
The most obvious is the on-field effect it has on the Steelers, and how much they can accomplish with backup Mason Rudolph as they begin their journey through the rest of the 2019 season without Roethlisberger for the remainder of the season.
But the ripple effects of Big Ben’s elbow injury suffered in Sunday’s two-point loss to the Seahawks and impending surgery trickle down to fantasy sports and gambling. Which is why – at least to this point – it’s the most impactful injury in regards to its influence on the NFL odds in 2019.
Interestingly, the Steelers’ projected win total consistently crept upward throughout the offseason and preseason. As recently as September 5th, the win tracker at Sports Betting Dime had Pittsburgh at 9.3 wins.
That number represented the fourth-highest in the AFC, behind New England, Kansas City, and the Los Angeles Chargers.
But, that number will see a sharp decline in the aftermath of Roethlisberger’s injury.
For context, one could assume news that the Steelers starter will miss the remainder of the season should have relatively the same effect as Andrew Luck’s retirement. When that happened, the Colts’ projected win total went into the tank.
Indianapolis held steady at 9.5 wins up until Luck’s announcement. Then that projected win total crashed to an even seven, where it remains today.
If Andrew Luck is worth a hypothetical 2.5 wins, one would expect Roethlisberger’s absence to have about the same influence on that number.
On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints saw Drew Brees suffer an injury as well, but they remain the favorite to come out of the NFC South.
Updated odds to win NFC South after Brees injury (will miss 6 weeks)
– Saints: -200
– Falcons: +333
– Panthers +850
– Buccaneers: +900Keep up to date with NFL divisional odds @SBD
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) September 16, 2019
However, Brees and Roethlisberger are pretty different situations. First, Brees isn’t expected to miss the rest of the season like Big Ben. The expectation with Brees is that he will miss six weeks. Second, the Saints – and the NFC South – lacks the depth the AFC North does. Based on early-season performances, it seems unlikely the Panthers, Falcons, or Buccaneers will position themselves as serious threats. The AFC North, on the other hand, boasts the Ravens (who have been phenomenal through two games), the Browns (who dramatically underperformed expectations in Week 1 but have the talent to run a run at the division title), and the Bengals (who in all likelihood won’t factor in other than to pad the records of the other three AFC North teams). And lastly, Teddy Bridgewater offers a (probably) better and more established backup for New Orleans than Rudolph does for Pittsburgh.
As for the shorter-term, the Steelers-49ers line has now moved solidly in favor of San Francisco, which would have seemed unlikely prior to Roethlisberger going down.
Line in #PITvsSF just opened at SF -7. Anyone taking the points with Rudolph?
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) September 16, 2019
All in all, with very few exceptions (if any), it’s hard to imagine a more impactful injury throughout the league than the one suffered by Ben Roethlisberger.
