NFC Wildcard Playoff Preview: Seattle At Minnesota
Sunday, January 10th, 2016 – Fox 1:00 P.M. ET
Announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver
It’s a rematch of a week 13 game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Minnesota Vikings. In the previous meeting the Vikings were blown out by Seattle 38-7. Seattle, the reigning NFC champs, have been on a tear winners of 6 of their past 7 games. Seattle comes into this game as 4-point favorites while playing this game on the road. Early reports have suggested this game may be one of the coldest in NFL history. With that in mind let’s take a look at the keys to the game in the first of two NFC wildcard playoff games.
Why Seattle Will Win:
- Russell Wilson Gives Seattle The Edge
The Seahawks have the clear quarterback advantage and it’s not even close. Wilson already has a Super Bowl ring and is on track for another one. Wilson is undefeated in opening round games giving me no reason to believe that will change (4-0). Wilson has taken his game to another level this season with career highs in passing yards (4,024) and touchdowns (34). This version of Russell Wilson is better than their Super Bowl run.
On the other sidelines will be second year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has been a sort of game manager under offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Teddy’s play has been mediocre at best and figures to have even more restrictions due to the weather. The key for the Viking passing game will be to give the young signal caller 3rd and manageable downs.
- Playoff Experience
This team has been battle tested in the past and knows what it takes to win a playoff game. Not only is this not their first rodeo but also the team is fairly healthy. Left tackle Russell Okung is back and so is the entire starting defense. The Vikings are the complete opposite as most of the players on the team have never been to the playoffs let alone won a game in postseason play. The last win by the Vikings during the playoffs was back in 2009 when Brett Favre was the quarterback. The unsung hero for Seattle always somehow plays a factor in a Seahawks victory. General Manager John Schneider has done a great job of building this team in more ways then one.
Coaching experience can also have an effect during the months of January and February. Pete Carroll teams always play well down the stretch. This can be traced back to his days at USC who always found themselves playing their best football when it matters the most. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota’s head coach, will be coaching his first playoff game. Zimmer will likely be giving his mentor Bill Parcells a call before his first playoff showdown.
- The Analytics L<3VE Seattle
Analytics: the systematic computational analysis of data or statistics.
Whether you are a fan of the analytic phenomenon or not they are essential in today’s sports world. The numbers often don’t lie and the numbers absolutely love the Seahawks. According to Football Outsiders this Seattle team is one of the best of all time.
The first-ever DVOA Championship Game turned into a blowout to rival the worst early-’90s Super Bowls. In fact, thanks to the high opponent adjustments for playing Arizona, Seattle earned 115.7% DVOA for its Week 17 blowout victory, the best single-game DVOA rating of the entire year. That game made Seattle the clear No. 1 team for the entire year with 38.0% DVOA, ten percentage points ahead of the rest of the league. Arizona fell behind Cincinnati, which finishes No. 2 for the season at 27.9% DVOA.
Seattle’s big win gives the Seahawks four straight seasons on top of our ratings, which no other team has ever done. It even launches the 2015 Seahawks into the all-time top ten, right behind the 2012 and 2013 Seahawks but ahead of the 2014 Seahawks.
The gap between Seattle and Cincinnati ends up as the fifth-highest gap in DVOA ever measured between the top two teams. Four other years have had a gap of at least ten percentage points:
BEST TOTAL DVOA, 1989-2015 Year Team DVOA W-L OFF Rk DEF Rk ST Rk 1991 WAS 56.9% 14-2 27.2% 1 -21.1% 3 8.6% 1 2007 NE 52.9% 16-0 43.5% 1 -5.8% 11 3.6% 7 2010 NE 44.6% 14-2 42.2% 1 2.3% 21 4.7% 8 1996 GB 42.0% 13-3 15.2% 3 -19.3% 1 7.4% 2 2013 SEA 40.0% 13-3 9.4% 7 -25.9% 1 4.7% 5 1995 SF 40.0% 11-5 18.6% 5 -23.7% 1 -2.2% 22 2012 SEA 38.7% 11-5 18.5% 4 -14.5% 2 5.7% 3 2015 SEA 38.0% 10-6 18.5% 2 -15.2% 4 4.2% 3 2004 PIT 37.6% 15-1 16.3% 8 -18.9% 3 2.4% 10 2012 DEN 36.5% 13-3 22.1% 2 -13.8% 5 0.6% 13 1989 SF 36.0% 14-2 26.2% 1 -11.5% 5 -1.7% 21 2010 PIT 35.4% 12-4 14.3% 5 -20.7% 1 0.4% 16
BEST WEIGHTED DVOA AT END OF REGULAR SEASON, 1989-2015 Year Team W-L DVOA Rk WEI Rk Playoffs 2010 NE 14-2 44.6% 1 54.3% 1 Lost Div Round 1991 WAS 14-2 56.9% 1 52.4% 1 Won Super Bowl 2015 SEA 10-6 38.0% 1 51.1% 1 — 2012 SEA 11-5 38.7% 1 47.1% 1 Lost Div Round 2013 SEA 13-3 40.0% 1 43.7% 1 Won Super Bowl 1989 SF 14-2 36.0% 1 42.9% 1 Won Super Bowl 2007 NE 16-0 52.9% 1 42.5% 1 Lost Super Bowl 2004 BUF 9-7 31.3% 3 41.6% 1 Missed Playoffs 2012 DEN 13-3 36.5% 2 41.4% 2 Lost Div Round 2004 PIT 15-1 37.6% 1 41.4% 2 Lost AFC Championship 1992 DAL 13-3 35.1% 1 40.6% 1 Won Super Bowl 1994 SF 13-3 27.6% 3 39.5% 1 Won Super Bowl
The difference is the two charts are weighted and non-weighted. To make things easier to understand the first describes a team’s play over the course of the season while the second places more importance the teams play of late. As evidence the second chart of results cannot be ignored as it almost guarantees a Seattle victory. Then again this is just numbers, anything can happen on any given Sunday.
Seattle’s X-Factor: Tyler Lockett
Doesn’t he just seem like a sort of playoff guy to you? The rookie 3rd round pick has been electrifying all season in the return game as well as the passing game. With the expected weather conditions field position will be important. Lockett gives them the opportunity to get a great special teams return each and every time.
WHY Minnesota Will Win:
1. Adrian Peterson Is Still The Best Half Back In Football
The NFL’s rushing champ resides in Minnesota, Adrian Peterson. During a game of extreme weather conditions his presence will be as important as ever. Peterson will often have to overcome 7-8 man defensive boxes. For the Vikings to have any shot, Peterson will have a major impact in the ground game. The good news for Minnesota is they won’t to deal with Marshawn Lynch or Thomas Rawls. A combination of Fred Jackson, Christine Michael, and Derrick Coleman is much easier to game plan for. If one thing is certain the Vikings have the edge in terms of running backs. Back up Jerick McKinnon could be a guy to watch in the passing game as well.
- Minnesota’s Defense Is Comparable To Seattle’s
While many people believe the Seahawks have the better defense you can make the case that the Vikings may have a better one. In terms of points allowed Seattle gave up an average of 17.3 compared to the Vikings 18.9. Not much of a difference in that statistic. The Vikings pass rush has been slightly better recording 43 sacks on the year compared to Seattle’s 37. Both teams are tied in the turnover differential with 5, the only difference is the Vikings gave up the ball more and created more turnovers. Young pass rushing specialist Anthony Barr could become a problem for the Seahawks.
- The Vikings Have Nothing To Lose
This season for the Vikings has to be considered a success even with a loss. Any further accomplishments are icing on the cake as most people predicted them to miss the playoffs, not including myself of course. With this in mind there is no pressure the Vikings can let it fly. Want to throw in a few trick plays; great, all of the pressure in the world is on the defending NFC champion Seahawks. Expect some creative play calling on the Vikings sideline.
Minnesota’s X-Factor: Cordarrelle Paterson
Again I’m going to go special teams here. During the last meeting between these two Paterson’s kick return for a touchdown was the team’s only score. Unlike Tyler Lockett, Paterson has only caught two passes on the entire season. I have a weird feeling Paterson may be more involved during the circumstances of this game.
Def Pen Staff Picks:
Rob Lopez – Seattle Seahawks
Charlie Taylor – Seattle Seahawks
Honi Ahmadian – Seattle Seahawks
In the end I could not go against Seattle’s track record. I expect much of the same from the previous meeting as I would be surprised if Minnesota is within one score of the final. Russell Wilson’s ability to run will be to much to handle for a young Viking team.
PREDICTION:
Seattle Seahawks defeat Minnesota Vikings 26 – 10
