Def Pen NBA Power Rankings: Wizards Formidable; Bulls, Knicks In Doldrums

Last week, David Morrow highlighted his great set of NBA Power Rankings right here! Check it out!!
During this set, I will refer to his results from last week to have continued conversation about the similarities and differences of our reasoning. He will return next week.

Bi-Weekly Reminder

To work on these rankings, I’m using the multiple linear regression model that I created before the season’s beginning and described at length– it’s featured here (independent variables, method, and all). I recommend perusing it to get an idea of why the model might contentiously value a team higher or lower than expected.

These rankings are designed to limit my bias and provide insight about how well teams execute different statistically significant play types and fulfill their own defensive and rebounding philosophies; therefore, I’m not supremely concerned with who beats whom (maybe a team performs better than their record would indicate)– we’ll worry about that after the All-Star break.

Also, to note, the rankings are a byproduct of an entire season’s work. There are not as sensitive to the fluctuations that NBA teams often endure over the course of the year (which is a potential shortcoming of the process). Additionally, because the model that we’re featuring only includes 30 observations (because of limited access to Synergy Sports Tech play-type data), the frequency of outliers will be a little more prevalent now than in future seasons. In fact, there were a few teams with favorable rankings this week, from the MLR Model, that I plummeted anyway because they were badgering me.

MLR Model Formula

Each team is given a cumulative score, which is a result of the values that they earn for each independent variable in the model multiplied by its respective coefficient and by 82 games.
These scores are ranked from 1 to 30.

Nuanced NBA Power Rankings

The Nuanced Rankings are more reasonable and intuitive than those of the MLR Model.

Using MLR Model as a basis, I used Strength of Schedule (SOS), Off. & Def. Efficiency (& Net Rating), injury status, and the current W-L records of the teams to refine the model’s rankings and reward winners (more, or less).

The last two columns correspond to the aforementioned MLR ranking process.

NBA Power Rankings

Top 10

1. Golden State Warriors – Undoubtedly the best team according to reasonable viewers and statistical references, however, they do slip up here and there.
2. San Antonio Spurs – Kawhi Leonard is certainly an MVP candidate; we will look back upon his nationally televised game against the Thunder as a signature performance. He’s got an assortment of moves that he can use to demoralize his opponent.
3. Washington Wizards – The Wizards are undeniably stellar at this stage. They’ve won 17 straight home games and 23 of their last 30 games. Put some “respeck” on these guys’ chances to make an ECF. David and I are both in consensus that Washington has the pedigree of a top 10 team, but I do believe that they are ready to take a step into elite territory, momentarily, by virtue of their sustained brilliance and the inconsistency of their Eastern Conference foes.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Cleveland had a few important bounce-back games after looking defenseless and vulnerable in the month of January. If Boston or Toronto had an absurdly competent stretch during Cleveland’s regression, then Cleveland may be second in the Eastern Conference standings at this point. Who will Cleveland sign as a playmaker?
5. Utah Jazz – They may be slightly underachieving actually, the Jazz have endured a few puzzling losses amid the  Hood injury. It’s remarkable that Alec Burks can quickly step in and perform as a suitable playmaker.
6. Boston Celtics – Isaiah Thomas stuns us with every marvelous fourth quarter performance he gives. Paul Pierce’s jumper from the wing to cut the Celtics lead to 5 was surely the best thing that happened to fans of Boston teams all Sunday.
7. Houston Rockets – It’s still easy to love this team, but their 20-point collapse was shades of the 20-point collapse that Josh Smith and Co. benefited from versus the Clippers back in the second round of the 2015 NBA Playoffs. Additionally, they are 11-8 since the beginning of 2017.
8. Toronto Raptors – Lowry is the engine, but DeRozan has the soul! There’s something about him that Lowry trusts such that their offense can continue despite its lulls. They may have won more of their recent games with his presence.
9. Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis tends to test poorly with statistics, but they execute brilliantly in close games. It was nice to see them dismantle an opponent, playing according to their true potential. Mike Conley was wonderful against the Suns with: The main concern is how slowly Chandler Parsons is returning to form; he’ll need to be back at a very high level if Memphis has hopes of making noise in this playoffs. The Grizzlies are higher than last week, but their resilience should be rewarded.
10. Los Angeles Clippers – Injuries have taken their toll. LAC’s defensive rating has climbed (read: regressed). Constant lineup shuffling has made this season quite the arduous journey. It’s also safe to say that they aren’t in the same class with the Warriors.

Middle 10

11. Atlanta Hawks – Solid team. Not known for their offensive firepower, but Tim Hardaway led a great charge despite a nearly insurmountable deficit against the Houston Rockets. 23 points in the fourth quarter– Atlanta coming in the clutch!
12. Indiana Pacers – The Pacers have been a lot steadier as of late. Quietly, they are taking advantage of their relatively weak schedule (SOS: -1.24) and are 6 games above .500.
13. Oklahoma City Thunder – They’ve been about where we expected them this season. Losing Enes Kanter because of his personal buncombe won’t make them any formidable in the West.
14. Denver Nuggets – Injuries have held back their charge for the 8th seed. They seem to be more equipped to handle a matchup against the Warriors in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs than any of the other sub .500 teams would. And did I mention a triple-double from MIP candidate Nikola Jokic?
15. Miami Heat – UNBEATABLE. Dion Waiters’s tenacity is reviving the Miami Heat. The narratives that we endure during an NBA season are unthinkable at times.
16. Charlotte Hornets – Kemba Walker certainly needs more scoring prowess around him, but his 1-5 FG performance against the Warriors was a little startling. Additionally, it appears as if Frank Kaminsky has won over Clifford’s confidence almost entirely, especially given their recent trade with the Milwaukee Bucks.
17. Portland Trail Blazers – It’s unfortunate that both CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard were snubbed, but their incurable defensive liabilities are more unfortunate. Perhaps their strength of schedule is holding back their W-L production.
18. Detroit Pistons –  Stretches of competence mixed with a few headaches and some pain along the way
19. Milwaukee Bucks – Khris Middleton has to come back now… it seems as if the Bucks have lost their appeal. There is a major disconnect between the model’s ranking and their current W-L mark, but they’ve been quite rough as of late and fallen into a negative net rating.
20. Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks have even beaten the Spurs and Cavaliers on back-to-back nights! They’re trending in the right direction. Let’s also admire Yogi Ferrell’s brilliance.

Bottom 10

21. Sacramento Kings – DeMarcus Cousins can only do so much! Maybe he should release an R&B album anyway to elucidate the hardships that he and Anthony Davis have to endure as members of mediocre teams. However, it’s always relieving to beat both 2016 NBA Finals opponents within a two-week period.
22. Philadelphia 76ers – Wonderfully competitive with Ben Simmons on the way after the All-Star break.
23. Minnesota Timberwolves – This model suggests that the Timberwolves are potentially better than their record shows. They had an opportunity to show the fruits of their labor on national TV against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but LeBron and co. spoiled their upset bid. Extremely unfortunate that Zach LaVine sustained an ACL injury this weekend.
24. Chicago Bulls – A little strife has been brewing. The roster configuration surely does not mesh with Fred Hoiberg’s strengths. They were 15th last week, but their production and dysfunction cause me to be a little bearish about their future.
25. New Orleans Pelicans – Just an enigma as a collective unit, but in the worst way. Superb defensively for a stretch, but then these efforts are followed up by an underwhelming performance like Wednesday night against the Detroit Pistons. New Orleans has backed itself out of the playoff race.
26. New York Knicks – Will they trade Carmelo Anthony? We don’t foresee this team making any playoff noise this season.
27. Orlando Magic – Who is on the move? Serge Ibaka? Nikola Vucevic? It’s quite interesting that Orlando is Toronto’s kryptonite.
28. LA Lakers – Lakers’ top 3 protected pick provides an added layer of complexity to their development. How seriously should the Lakers take tanking?
29. Phoenix Suns – Eric Bledsoe has been the lone consistent piece for the large part of the year.
30. Brooklyn Nets – The worst team