When The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported on July 1 that Fred VanVleet had agreed to re-sign with the Toronto Raptors, the team’s fans rejoiced. They were getting VanVleet on a bargain contract – only $8 million per season – and retaining one of the key bench cogs from last year’s 59-win squad.
But just five months after VanVleet re-signed, some Raptors fans are already considering whether the contract was a mistake.
Sure, this is nothing new for VanVleet, who adopted the motto “bet on yourself” because of the many times he’s been counted out. But now, the doubts resonate a bit more because they aren’t unfounded.
On paper, VanVleet doesn’t seem to be playing much worse offensively than last year, besides his sharp drop in 3-point percentage and, to a lesser extent, his drop in true shooting percentage. He’s averaging a point per contest more than last season (from 8.6 to 9.6) and shooting nearly the same percentage from the field. He’s also got a similar assist rate, with a bump in his nightly assists average.
Despite all that, something has changed. Early on, we could’ve shrugged it off as a product of VanVleet’s toe injury, which kept him out for four of the team’s first eight games. But VanVleet’s on-court struggles have been more about decision-making than a nagging injury.
For one thing, he’s often forcing the issue, dribbling into traffic and either hoisting a difficult shot or turning it over:
VanVleet is good at getting to the rim, but he’s only five feet 11 inches and struggles to finish against taller and longer defenders. Among 73 guards who have attempted 50 or more shots from within five feet of the basket, VanVleet ranked 66th in shooting percentage from that area before Monday’s game.
Most players find it difficult to get deep into the paint. VanVleet’s problem, however, is that he gets too deep and ends up in trouble:
Occasionally, VanVleet will make tough shots near the rim, but those are far from reliable. His best bet is to keep the defense off balance by adding more of a midrange game. While VanVleet’s game is analytically sound – almost all of his shots have come from near the rim or behind the 3-point arc – he could still use some more variety.
Taking more pull-up jumpers from the midrange would help open up VanVleet’s driving game, especially off the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop. Defenders usually hang back in anticipation of VanVleet’s aggressive drives, waiting to meet him at the rim:
Though it’s a relatively small sample size, VanVleet has shot better from floater territory (5-9 feet) and midrange areas (10-14 feet, 15-19 feet) than anywhere else on the floor.
Instead of forcing plays in the paint, VanVleet should stop short and look for his shot, make a simple pass to his roll man or look to the weak side wing if a third defender drops down to help:
VanVleet has the skill and basketball IQ to make all of these reads. He frequently did so last season as a part of Toronto’s three best high-usage lineups, including its five-man bench unit.
That unit no longer exists, with Jakob Poeltl joining DeMar DeRozan in San Antonio. VanVleet had far better pick-and-roll chemistry with Poeltl than he does with Jonas Valanciunas, though there is still time for that to improve. It would help if C.J. Miles could make a shot to spread the floor. The biggest loss for VanVleet, however, was Pascal Siakam – a player that the Raptors didn’t lose at all.
Siakam has just been too good to come off the bench. As Blake Murphy pointed out, Siakam provided a dimension for the reserves that OG Anunoby simply doesn’t have. Anunoby, while improving, does not have the driving and playmaking skills of Siakam.
One of Toronto’s most-used duos, VanVleet and Siakam played 1,085 minutes together over 74 games last season. Going into Monday’s game, they had shared the floor for 224 minutes in 19 games this season – on pace for about 200 fewer minutes together than last year. That number would’ve been even lower about a week ago, before Raptors coach Nick Nurse started playing Siakam more often with bench units.
Without Siakam to create off the dribble, that burden falls entirely on Delon Wright and VanVleet whenever Toronto’s stars are off the floor. That’s why Nurse has staggered his lineups more lately, replacing Siakam early and bringing him in to aid bench groups.
Assuming Nurse continues to do that, as well as sprinkling in some minutes with Kawhi Leonard or Kyle Lowry alongside four bench players, VanVleet’s playmaking burden should naturally begin to ease. When he plays off the ball, VanVleet usually fares much better, as he did in the fourth quarter against Memphis last week:
VanVleet is a solid 3-point shooter, and his mark from distance (33.3 percent going into Monday’s game) should rise as he gets more catch-and-shoot opportunities and more minutes next to the starters. It’s no coincidence that his barrage of crunch time 3s all came off passes from Leonard in the clip above.
More than anything, VanVleet needs to settle down and be patient with the ball. Once he stops forcing drives and over-dribbling, he’ll be able to get back to his level of play from last season. VanVleet’s nickname is Steady Freddy for a reason. The Raptors need him to be a calm, collected presence to lead their bench units and help continue their stellar play come the postseason.
All stats according to NBA.com. Stats are up to date before games played on Dec. 3.
