Def Pen NBA Power Rankings: Spurs, Warriors Pursuing Top Spot; Clippers, Bulls Face Midseason Roster Flux

NBA Power Rankings

Last week, David Morrow highlighted his great set of power rankings right here!. During this set, I will reference his results from last week to have continued conversation about the similarities and differences of our reasoning. He will return next week.

To work on these rankings, I’m using the multiple linear regression model that I created before the season’s beginning and described at length– it’s featured here (independent variables, methodology, and all). I recommend perusing it to get an idea of why the model might contentiously value a team higher or lower than expected.

These rankings are designed to limit my own bias and provide insight about how well teams execute different statistically significant play types and fulfill their own defensive and rebounding philosophies; therefore, I’m not supremely concerned with who beats whom (maybe a team performs better than their record would indicate)– we’ll worry about that after the All-Star break.

Also, to note, the rankings are a byproduct of an entire season’s work. There are not as sensitive to the fluctuations that NBA teams often endure over the course of the year (which is a potential shortcoming of the process). Additionally, because the model that we’re featuring only includes 30 observations (because of limited access to Synergy Sports Tech play-type data), the frequency of outliers will be a little more prevalent now than in future seasons.

MLR Model Formula

Each team is given a cumulative score, which is a result of the values that they earn for each independent variable in the model multiplied by its respective coefficient and by 82 games.
These scores are ranked from 1 to 30.

Nuanced NBA Power Rankings

The Nuanced Rankings are more reasonable and intuitive than those of the MLR Model.

Using MLR Model as a basis, I used Strength of Schedule (SOS), Off. & Def. Efficiency (& Net Rating), injury status, and the current W-L records of the teams to refine the model’s rankings and reward winners (more, or less).

The last two columns correspond to the aforementioned MLR ranking process.

Top 10

1. San Antonio Spurs – League-leading cumulative score by a wide margin, and why might this be? They are superb with TO% differential, # touches deep in the paint, efficiency from offensive cuts to the basket for open layups/dunks, and are very competent protectors of the rim. Although they endured a puzzling loss to the Hawks this week, they are holding a plus 17 net rating in their last 5 games. It’s also important to note that in last week’s rankings David Morrow argued that the Spurs weren’t quite as imposing as in past years. I think this is a very reasonable concern; although the Spurs have executed at an impressive rate, they could lack the firepower to match the Warriors and Spurs.
2. Golden State Warriors – Led by all-star frontcourt player Zaza Pachulia (just kidding).
   Led by Ste–
   Led by Kevin Dur–
   While I’m not entirely sure who is the singular leader of this team, it likely doesn’t matter. This team is dominant on both ends and features one of the 3 best offenses in NBA History, according to the Adjusted Rating model from NBAMath.com.
   However, what helps perpetuate the “GSW doesn’t have poise in the clutch” and “Curry isn’t a point guard” narratives is their tepid clutch net rating of plus .4, good for 15th in the league.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers – Kyrie is certainly improving, and of course, Lebron spearheads their late game execution. While the model doesn’t give them a superb score, it appears as if Lebron and Kyrie are almost irrationally impressive in the clutch. They remain 2nd in the NBA in Clutch Stats net rating.
4. Houston Rockets – The extent to which they are great on offense is beyond most expectations. They’re on a 63-19 win pace and seem to be talented enough to win games in which they’ve underachieved. A reason that the model may undervalue them is their infrequency in certain statistically significant play types. With a competent defense, they are undoubtedly among the elite. Harden for MVP?
5. Toronto Raptors – Impressive offense, 20th in defensive efficiency. But to chase or not to chase? That is the question. Should they implode their second unit in favor of pursuing a talent like Millsap who they could potentially sign long-term with bird rights? They aren’t matching up well against the top teams in the NBA– 7 of their losses are from GSW, CLE, SAS, HOU.
6. Utah Jazz – Very solid team but an inordinate amount of injuries have hindered Utah from reeling off a long string of victories. Nevertheless, Rudy Gobert is certainly DPOY caliber and has also become a creative, proficient finisher around the rim. I will, however, accept an argument that Boston should be in this spot at 6.
7. Charlotte Hornets – Charlotte appears to have the poise of respectable team in the East; however, they’ve failed to close out games as of late. Nevertheless, because Kemba Walker has been an All-Star worthy guard, the Hornets seem to be impervious to any precipitous slides that would drop them among the 8th/9th seeds in the conference. This ranking is a little higher than that of David’s, and the Hornets have faltered a few times lately; however, they appear to execute efficiently enough to expect their record to rise again in the near future.
8. Boston Celtics – As they are getting healthy, we’re beginning to see the excellence that we expected during the preseason. Isaiah Thomas has been their catalyst. Currently, he’s got an OffRtg over 111 and has an Ast/TO of 2.61 which is the highest of his career. What could move them into the elite spots? Maybe it’s their defensive rebounding (DREB%), which is 29th in the NBA.
9. Oklahoma City Thunder – The combination of their decent net rating and low strength of schedule gives us cause for concern. OKC will be tested this month against greater opponents; and although the likelihood that Westbrook commandeers the pace with abundant stat lines remains high, we have not seen if the Thunder can handle stretches containing teams like the Clippers, Jazz, Warriors, and Cavaliers. David and I are both bearish about their future and whether a top seed is attainable. Until they endure more hardships however, the model won’t reflect a ton of vulnerability.
10. Milwaukee Bucks – Fun team, but a very alarming loss to the New York Knicks. They don’t seem to have the type of accomplished scorer who can make difficult shots off the dribble in late-game scenarios. Giannis’s confidence in his jump shot is still nascent, and their halfcourt offense struggled against NYK in the clutch, which is something to watch for in future matchups.

Middle 10

11. Los Angeles Clippers – Injuries have mired them beneath the elite in the Western Conference. The Clippers’ scintillating start gives them a relatively competent ranking in this model. When Chris Paul plays, their play-type execution soars, he restores their direction.
12. Memphis Grizzlies – Grit and grind with some added pace… Their net rating is less than 1, so the model hasn’t quite captured their win capability. The Grizzlies have been superb in late game situations. The 24-point comeback and 9-point overtime victory against Golden State on Friday still have fans awestruck. Here’s an exceptional stat: +18.6 net rating in clutch situations which is fourth place in the league.
13. Indiana Pacers – Essentially average with net-rating and deplorable rebounding (3rd worst REB%) withholds them from playing at a consistent level. They seem to be meandering back into the top half of the league. They could propel themselves into the heat of the playoff race if they take care of business during a generous January schedule, as David Morrow writes.
14. New York Knicks – This ranking seems rather high, but because of their propensity to crash the glass well and knock down catch & shoot 3 pointers, they maintain relevance with the model. However, they are also 26th in Defensive Rating; and if they were to finish above .500, they would have greatly exceeded our expectations at Def Pen. The Knicks must ensure that Porzingis is the focal point of their offense and find ways to avoid Kristaps having to defend opponents in space. He’s rather imposing as a rim protector & shot blocker; this is where he should be expected to impact the defense.
15. Washington Wizards – Watching a healthy Bradley Beal in the backcourt alongside arguably the best PG in the Eastern Conference has been a treat. Over their last 11 games, the Wizards have accounted for an OffRtg of 110.4.
16. Portland Trail Blazers – Should we put more stock into CJ McCollum’s stint as the forerunning scoring threat? Over the past 5 games, the Trail Blazers’ defensive efficiency has improved to 105.2, but overall, the Trail Blazers have a defensive rating of 113, which is losing them games. However, Portland’s DFG% differential around the rim is in the elite category; because of variable importance, this elevates their standing in the MLR model. They are still in desperate need of competent defenders and are potentially looking for Tyson Chandler.
17. Denver Nuggets – Jokic is beyond superb and a NBA Math TPA Allstar. It appears as if Denver has a surplus of frontcourt talent, but their defensive deficiency has prevented them from taking command of the Western Conference’s 8th seed.
18. Detroit Pistons – Supremely average, but once a dependable defensive unit– no longer as Reggie Jackson contends.
19. Atlanta Hawks – Although this team is within the first 4 seeds in the convoluted Eastern Conference, they are beginning to relinquish their veterans in exchange for unrealized assets. Thus far, they’ve been an approx. 45 win team but with the imminent roster turnover, we don’t know what we should expect.
20. Chicago Bulls – Prudently, the Bulls have chosen to expurgate Rondo from all lineups. They’ve been wildly inconsistent this season and are hard-pressed to find a source of 3 point shooting. Nevertheless, their cornerstone has been stupendous as of late. Butler has games of 52 & 42 points over the last week; he’s held his club afloat as a playoff contender.

Bottom 10

21. Minnesota Timberwolves – Plethora of talent, but as Coach Nick from BBallBreakdown contends in his video, it’s possible that Rubio is withholding young stars from performing at their potential because they lack the space that they need to operate. The way that defenders slide way under Rubio/KAT PnRs makes it difficult for KAT. They’ve got a long way to go, but they are at least competitive.
22. New Orleans Pelicans – Signing Donatas Montejunas should help Anthony Davis find more space to create good looks and fill the stat sheets with his absurd numbers. However, the Pelicans are brutal on the glass and surrendered a surfeit of extra possessions. Additionally, they’ve been sporting a bottom 5 OffRtg on the season. These factors correlate to their wild inconsistencies, experiencing 4 game winning streaks as often as 3 game losing streaks.
23. Sacramento Kings – They’ve got a few impressive wins on their resume. After their brief stint of brilliance, David had them at 17 last week which makes a lot of sense. They’ve seen continued a small slide, thus this week’s ranking. Can they lock up Cousins long-term? Are they going to be buyers or sellers come the trade deadline?
24. LA Lakers – Julius Randle has an impressively versatile skill set! LAL was relatively competitive at the season’s beginning, but perhaps the injuries and lineup shuffling reveal their true pedigree? They are missing Nance’s presence and appear to lack the footspeed and athleticism to contest well at the rim. Some would argue that their focus should shift to keeping their top 3 protected draft pick from the 76ers.
25. Miami Heat – I would vouch for the strength of their defensive scheme, but now that Justise is also injured, there’s not much hope for this season. Their efforts should be rewarded with a top pick this summer.
26. Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks have increased their offensive efficiency over the past few weeks, but they are certainly in line to pick up a top lottery choice. Fans would certainly be interested the prospect of adding Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz to this system.
27. Orlando Magic – Not too surprised by what their current rank is given their nonplussing roster composition. Last week, they were 18th in David Morrow’s account because they haven’t been too awful yet, despite their MLR rank.
28. Phoenix Suns – They’ve got a myriad of young guns, so this is expected; however, the extent to which Devin Booker’s ascension is gradual is somewhat shocking. Bledsoe is far and away the best contributor they’ve got.
29. Philadelphia 76ers – Unsurprisingly, this is the NBA’s worst offense… but Joel Embiid has been an all-star caliber post scorer/rim protector, and Ben Simmons is on the way back. There’s no reason to be downtrodden for this team despite their record.
30. Brooklyn Nets – This team wants 2 first round picks for Brook Lopez, which is reasonable because Kenny Atkinson has likely reached the maximum potential of this current roster. The Nets need assets for long-term rebuilding. They were mired at the bottom last week too.