When creating a betting strategy for the 2023 Kentucky Derby, you might want to consider wagering on a long shot contender. A long shot horse is a derby contender that is unlikely to win and with considerable odds.
Betting on a long shot promises higher returns but has a higher risk. It’s the most significant disadvantage of betting on a long shot in the Kentucky Derby or any other horse racing event. So, if you plan to bet on a long shot in this upcoming Kentucky Derby, you might want to check these things below first to increase your chance of success.
The Racing Form
The racing form is a vital information source to know each derby contender. It consists of the horse’s past performances, which is a fantastic tool to help bettors predict the performance of horses in the future.
When betting on a long shot, you must look at the form and read between the lines. You must go beyond the obvious and find a valid reason why a horse poorly performed in the previous races earned him long odds for the Kentucky Derby.
You must look for horses that have good runs from time to time. For example, a long shot horse that finishes 4th or 5th in their five most recent races. Avoid those contenders who don’t have a form at all.
You must also consider the track condition during their previous races, especially those they failed. You’ll need this information to compare with the track condition of Churchill Downs on the day of the race during the selection process.
The Selection Process
The selection process is the first thing you need to consider if you want to bet for a long shot on the derby this year. You must learn how to select a long shot horse to bet on correctly. The selection process isn’t the same as choosing a favorite to bet on.
Picking a long shot is much harder than choosing a favorite, as you’ll need to dig deeper into handicapping the horse to acquire enough knowledge to determine whether that horse has the slightest chance of winning.
This kind of information can’t be commonly found on paper, and you’ll need to do your due diligence and get them yourself in whatever way you can. There are rules you can follow on selecting a long shot that will help you increase your chance of success. Rule number one is to check out the race itself.
Check out the line up for Kentucky Derby, as well as the type of race track the horses will run, and even the weather condition on the race day. All these factors can affect the performances of all horses participating in the Kentucky Derby Next rule is to choose male long shot horses as male horses win a race more often than female horses.
Lastly, look at the distance of the race. Most long shot winners emerged victorious on race courses ranging from 2000 miles and up. Churchill Downs is only a mile-long racetrack, so that should significantly impact your decision.
Betting On Long Shots Is Psychological
Long shot betting isn’t for everybody. So, if you haven’t tried betting on a long shot before, whether in Kentucky Derby or other races, this part is crucial for you.
If you’re the kind of person who likes something about a thoroughbred, although it looks bad on paper, and you put your money on that long shot, then lose the race and start blaming yourself, then this isn’t for you.
You’ll only beat yourself up badly over a failed long shot bet. Imagine how awful you’ll feel if you lost the bet with your decisions. If you know that you’ll be displeased with yourself and just blame your mistakes, then avoid betting on a long shot.
That said, this betting strategy will not benefit you financially and psychologically. It will only throw you off your game and could affect your future betting decisions.
If you think you can handle the psychological pressure of betting on a long shot, you can try it this upcoming Kentucky Derby. Just remember that betting on a horse race doesn’t guarantee whether you’re betting on a long shot or a favorite.
Your Luck
Betting, as it is, is 50% luck and 50% based on your skills and knowledge. However, when it comes to betting for a long shot, this ratio drastically changes since you’ll be relying more on your luck than your skills in handicapping.
Some individuals are lucky than most. So, if you belong to the lucky ones, you might succeed with long shot betting. Yet, don’t put your hopes high, as luck isn’t consistent. You’ll have better chances if you follow your intuition and add some luck to the mix.
The True Long Shot Horse
What makes a horse a true long shot depends on the bettor’s perspective. But when you look into the history of Kentucky Derby racing or the horse racing industry as a whole, you’ll find that odds beyond 8-1, the odds of choosing a winner become challenging.
There are a lot of factors that should be put into account when handicapping a valuable long shot to bet on. Handicappers combine all factors that could affect the horse’s performance and the race when picking the true long shot.
Final Thoughts
Bettors find that betting on a long shot contender will give them a huge payout. Thus, despite the risk involved in this wagering strategy, they still gamble and hope for the best that luck is on their side.
After you read the things you need to consider when betting on a long shot and still feel confident about going this path, you go. But if you feel otherwise, it’s best to stick to the simplest bet method, which poses a lower risk.
