The current era of basketball has seen the most efficient scoring in league history. More and more teams are using advancements in analytics to guide their offensive principles leading to huge increases in the rate of shooting, both in volume and efficiency.
Yet there are the few players who remain champions of a dying breed, spitting in the face of analytics with every midrange jumper. No one has been more of a leader in the resistance movement than DeMar DeRozan and no one is more successful at it than him.
DeRozan’s game has been the symbol of what is now the old-school style of basketball, grinding possessions to a halt, isolating against a single defender and rising up for a contested jumper. To some, it’s ugly basketball. More importantly, it goes against the grain of what we perceive as effective, winning basketball.
But somehow through it all, DeRozan has prospered. No matter fans’ opinions on how he’s rated (he’s as divisive of a player in terms of on-court skills alone as there is in the league), it’s clear that DeRozan is a top-tier scorer in an unconventional way.
While long-twos are seen as the most inefficient shot in the game today, they work for DeRozan. Nearly 55 percent of his total field goal attempts come in the midrange (compared to 8.2 percent from three) and he hits at a 49 percent clip from 10-16 feet. If he’s shooting well from that range, why shouldn’t DeRozan continue his onslaught from the midrange?
But DeRozan is evolving into more than just long two’s for days. At times, there are glimpses of a higher ceiling at which the 27-year-old shows promise as a primary scorer and initiator, carrying the Toronto Raptors’ offense on his back.
Since the All-Star break, the shooting guard has been forced into an even bigger role for the Raptors in the absence of Kyle Lowry. DeRozan has had the ball in his hands more than ever, given free reign over the offense with the responsibility to make up for Lowry’s lost production.
So far, DeRozan has delivered.
Since All-Star Weekend, DeRozan is averaging 27.2 points per game on an improved 56.7 true shooting percentage, a number that falls roughly within the top quartile of shooting guards in the NBA, as shown in this helpful chart given by Nicholas Sciria of Nylon Calculus.
That’s clearly not indicative of an elite scorer, but you’d be hard-pressed to find another player who is as efficient on as high of a volume (34.1 percent usage rate this season) while the best player on their team is unable to play.
More impressive from DeRozan has been the slow progression as a passer. He has made strides over the last two seasons with assist rates hovering around 20 percent, meaning that one in five of his teammates’ field goals are assisted by him when he’s on the court.
Since Lowry’s injury, DeRozan has significantly improved that number (as well as his own true shooting percentage). In the 20 games since the All-Star break, DeRozan is assisting on 23.0 percent of teammates’ field goals, doing enough to get his teammates good looks while still carrying the bulk of the scoring load. That balance has led to a 14-6 record since the All-Star break.
It was never more apparent than during a recent win over the Chicago Bulls, one of the best performances DeRozan has had in what has been a career year for him. 42 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds, as well as countless massive moments in clutch situations while Jimmy Butler did the same for the other team.
DeRozan’s scoring will grab the headlines and rightfully so, but it was his passing throughout the night that was most impressive in the huge performance against the Raptors’ long-time nemesis.
DeRozan passed out of double-teams with ease as Chicago opted to try and get the ball out of his hands in the elbow or low-post. His passes led to direct catch-and-shoot opportunities on some occasions. On others, they broke down the defense giving others, such as DeMarre Carroll, the chance to attack closeouts and get to the rim:
Other times, DeRozan attacked the basket himself, putting pressure on a defense that was left without Robin Lopez after an earlier scuffle. He drew multiple defenders before kicking out for wide-open threes:
DeRozan is one of the best players in the league at driving to the hoop. He’s not only adept at finishing around the rim (67.4 percent 0-3 feet away from the basket for the season), but he gets to the line with tremendous frequency, currently averaging 0.41 free throws per field goal attempt. His footwork is among the most impressive in the NBA, reminiscent, to an extent, of his basketball idol, Kobe Bryant.
When DeRozan commits to attacking the rim, he has immense gravity, drawing defenders in around him. That opens up passing lanes for the shooting guard and as he improves his passing ability, that becomes a more and more efficient style of basketball.
Lowry’s absence in the regular season could become a blessing in disguise. The Raptors have lost some ground in the Eastern Conference standings (they went through a rough stretch even with Lowry in the lineup), now unlikely to finish with the second-best record.
But they uncovered a new evolution of DeRozan’s game.
DeMar is now a primary offensive weapon, capable of creating offense for himself and for others. Consistency is the key here, but DDR’s emergence in that respect will be crucial for the Raptors moving forward.
Having DeRozan create offense allows Lowry to turn into a dangerous secondary creator, a much better role for him than for DeRozan by virtue of the former’s shooting ability. Raptors’ head coach Dwane Casey will have to find a balance as Lowry’s shooting out of the pick-and-roll has been lights out this season, but there is something to be found with the ball in DeRozan’s hands.
It’s a good problem to have for a Raptors’ team that struggled to find its offense in the postseason last year. Opponents tend to trap Lowry and DeRozan, making it difficult for them to get good looks. If DeRozan can tap into his recent passing prowess, he can pick defenses apart especially with the added spacing and screen-setting of Serge Ibaka. It would be a welcome addition to a team that ranks bottom of the NBA in assist rate.
The Raptors have faltered after a hot start to the season but they look to still be a dangerous team once Lowry returns from his injury. But while the point guard still claims the title of the Raptors’ best player by virtue of his all-around play, it will be DeMar DeRozan’s consistency and improvement that will be key to any sustainable success in the playoffs.
All videos from 3Ball. All GIFs created via NBA.com videos. Statistics from Basketball-Reference and NBA.com. Shot chart from StatMuse. Stats accurate as of April 3, 2017.
