The team with the NBA’s best record will face off with the Utah Jazz in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. MVP candidate James Harden and the Rockets are set to take on the Utah Jazz in the 1-5 matchup in the 2018 NBA playoffs Western Conference second round.
The seeding difference may be large, but don’t be fooled, this ain’t your Grandmas Utah Jazz team. They closed out the regular season winning 26 of their last 32 games, and Rudy Gobert’s infusion made this team a force to be reckoned with. Their fifth seed is also deceiving, they were one win away from being in the third slot in the conference and just handily dispatched Russell Westbrook and the Thunder in just six games.
Do the Rockets care? Nah. The aforementioned Harden and his star sidekick Chris Paul aren’t afraid of anyone. Their gentlemen’s sweep of the Timberwolves was evidence of how potent their offense can be, and this team had no problem with any opponent in the regular season.
Including the Jazz.
The Rockets dismantled the Jazz this regular season, four times to be exact. Houston poured in 116.3 points per game on the Jazz and was one of the two teams to take down Utah in February. That is important. Mike D’Antoni and co have proven one thing: they can beat the Jazz, even at their peak.
But the Jazz held the Rockets to 96 points in that February loss, and their defense has only gotten better with more reps since. Despite having less star power, Utah has the defense, and the scheme, to beat Houston if they can execute.
Let’s take a closer look.
In case you’ve been living under a rock this season and don’t know, a staple of the Rockets offense is taking, and making three-pointers. They lead the league in deep looks attempted per game with a hair over 42. They are in the middle of the pack in terms of actually making those shots, shooting 36.2 percent as a team, but when you take as many as the Rockets do, you mitigate the chances of having an off night from deep. It’s hard to struggle from three-point range for an extended period of time when you shoot as many as the Rockets do.
The Jazz, meanwhile, gave up the third fewest attempts from long range per game at just 26. Utah has an obvious strategy on defense. They look to prevent three-point attempts, and they want to force the opponents to drive into long, outstretched arms of their big men under the basket.
Rudy Gobert has the name, but Derrick Favors and Ekpe Udoh are also talented rim protectors, which allows the Jazz to seamlessly run their defense scheme regardless of their personnel on the floor. Gobert, though, is something else. Per basketball reference, Gobert’s 99 defensive rating is the best mark of a player on either team sans the aforementioned Udoh. But Gobert does it against starters, and for longer periods of time, making him far and away the most impactful defender in the series.
Offensively, Utah is methodical and sharp. They run elaborate sets that get their shooters moving off the ball, while also setting ball screens to get ball-handlers free. In tandem, all of their motion gets the defense scrambling, and once they make an error, the Jazz pounce. They support a fairly balanced scoring attack with six players scoring between 11-17 points per game. But Utah is led by their young stud Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell has taken the league by storm, dropping in 20.5 points per game with a tidy 54.1 true shooting percentage. His ability to create shots for himself and others has made him one of the most electrifying rookies in history, and when he is surrounded by the Jazz excellent cast of role players, he thrives. Utah doesn’t have anyone bad in their rotation, but guys like Joe Ingles, Ricky Rubio, and Jae Crowder spread the floor out and offer another threat for him to share the court with. Between Gobert’s D and Mitchell’s O, they have plenty to get by on both ends.
But the Rockets are the freakin’ Rockets. James Harden is likely the league MVP. Chris Paul is still one of the best 15 players in the league, maybe 10 if you squint really hard. Clint Capela might be the most underrated player in the league, and his defense anchoring the paint has been massive for Houston all season long.
Capela’s 101 defense rating leads Houston, and though the Rox are known for their offense, they are pretty hard to score on when they throw out guys like Capela, PJ Tucker, Trevor Ariza, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (who could return from a shoulder injury during this series).
On offense, there isn’t a whole ton to say about the Rockets that isn’t obvious. James Harden is brilliant. Chris Paul is a magician. Those two pour in 49 points per game and dish out 16.7 assists, which is about as high powered as it gets. When one of them sits, and you think you get a breather, you don’t. Eric Gordon’s 18 points per game checks in, and you’re stuck trying to prevent him from beating you.
The Rockets rotation is stacked. There is a reason they won 65 games. But Utah is finally healthy after a tough start, and their 48 wins undersell how good this Utah team is. Strictly looking at win totals, maybe the Rockets are heavy favorites.
In actuality, this will be a tough series for them. They are either going to have to figure out how to get off good looks from deep or figure out how to finish over Rudy Gobert, two tough assignments.
But they have one of the best offenses in basketball. It might a few games, but they will figure it out.
