2018 NBA Playoffs: (2) Boston Celtics vs (7) Milwaukee Bucks
Despite myriad injuries, the Boston Celtics rode surprising young talent, excellent defense, strong ball movement and superb coaching to the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Because of the many blows the injury bug has dealt to Boston’s roster, the Eastern Conference will see a matchup far more interesting than the typical two-seed-versus-seven-seed seriesa.
The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward on opening night. Kyrie Irving is out for the playoffs. Daniel Theis, who was a pleasant surprise as a bench big, is also done for the year. Marcus Smart is targeting a return date that could bring him back by the end of this series, but it likely wouldn’t be until game seven (if the series goes that far).
Despite the injuries, the Celtics were able to adapt on the fly, managing 55 wins. It is this adaptability, courtesy of Coach of the Year favorite Brad Stevens, that makes it difficult to pick against the Celtics in this series, despite missing four important rotation players.
The Milwaukee Bucks, the seventh-seeded team in this series, were slightly disappointing this season. They weren’t expected to win a championship, or even the East, this season, but a bit more progress would have been nice to see; the Bucks increased their win total from 42 last season to 44 this season – not a huge improvement.
The Bucks are led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the most exciting young talents in the league. A 6-foot-11 point-forward with long, swinging limbs, Antetokounmpo can do a bit of everything on the hardwood (except consistently knock down 3-pointers). His biggest weakness is his inexperience. Antetokounmpo is phenomenal, and averaged career-high averages in minutes per game (36.7), points per game (26.9), rebounds per game (10) and field-goal percentage (52.9 percent). He’s also just 23 years old.
Antetokounmpo is surrounded by long, versatile players who are active on both ends of the floor. Players like Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell and John Henson.
The Bucks have a spacing problem. As a team, they shot 35.5 percent from 3-point range, which ranks 22nd. They also don’t shoot those outside shots with consistency; only five NBA teams attempted fewer 3-point attempts than Milwaukee’s 24.7 per game. Henson is a non-shooter. Antetokounmpo is more or less a non-shooter and is treated as one by opposing defenses. Bledsoe is an OK-not-great shooter (34.9 percent on 4.9 shots per game). The Bucks’ best floor-spacer in past years has been Khris Middleton, a career 39.1 percent outside shooter, is shooting just 35.9 percent this year. Tony Snell shoots over 40 percent from deep, and Brogdon is a great shooter, but the stats say none of those players have excelled at shooting non-open 3-pointers.
The Celtics, on the other hand, are an excellent 3-point shooting team. They’re terrific at swinging the ball around the court until it finds an open look. Only the Warriors shot better from long range than the Celtics did this season, and Boston attempts nearly six more 3-pointers per game than the Bucks do. Milwaukee will need to find a way to overcome that difference in shooting.
Another weakness for the Bucks is rebounding. They ranked dead last in rebounds per game this season. Antetokounmpo is an excellent rebounder, but Milwaukee lacks a reliable center. The Celtics, on the other hand, were the eighth-best rebounding team in the NBA this season. Despite frequently trotting out smallish lineups, the Celtics’ size on the wing with players like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris give them an edge on the glass. Terry Rozier is an excellent rebounding point guard, and Aron Baynes can grab boards when he’s in the game as well.
Jabari Parker will be the x-factor for the Bucks. His talent is apparent, but two ACL tears later, it’s unclear if he’s capable of consistently playing at a high level. Plus, his defense is disastrous. If Parker can play passable defense and score efficiently and at a high rate, the Bucks might just be able to win this series against a hobbled Celtics team.
The Celtics aren’t going to win a championship this season. Neither are the Bucks. For Boston, this is a crucial learning experience for star rookie Tatum, and a good one for the young players who have been here before, but not in as pronounced roles. Brown and Rozier will be full-time postseason starters alongside Tatum, and this will be a huge test for those three players.
Tatum had a historically efficient rookie season:
Jayson Tatum becomes the fifth rookie in NBA history and the first since Stephen Curry to finish a rookie season with 1,000+ points and a 3-PT % of at least 40.0%
— Celtics Stats (@celtics_stats) April 12, 2018
It will be interesting to see if Tatum can maintain that efficiency in a playoff setting, when every team plays a little harder and tighter on the defensive end.
For the Bucks, this postseason should be looked at as another opportunity to let Antetokounmpo keep learning and getting better. This series will probably be a close one. We’re either going to see a Bucks team overcome a depleted Celtics team, or the young players of Boston brimming with confidence after winning a playoff series without the help of Irving.
series schedule
(all times eastern)
Game 1: Sunday 4/15, 1 PM, in Boston on TNT
Game 2: Tuesday 4/17, 8 PM, in Boston on TNT
Game 3: Friday 4/20, 9:30 PM, in Milwaukee on ESPN
Game 4: Sunday 4/22, 1 PM, in Milwaukee on ABC
(if necessary)
Game 5: Tuesday 4/24, TBD in Boston
Game 6: Thursday 4/26, TBD in Milwaukee
Game 7: Saturday 4/28, TBD in Boston on TNT
