2017 NBA Playoffs Preview:
As the afterglow of the regular season begins to fade away, all eyes are looking towards the 2017 NBA playoffs that are on the horizon. Isaiah Thomas and the Boston Celtics secured the first seed with a 112-94 win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. They had an exceptional season and are heading into the playoffs with confidence. Their first round opponent, however, won’t go down without a fight.
Jimmy Butler and the Chicago Bulls have had a mixed season. They haven’t produced in the way some of the more optimistic Chicago fans hoped they would.
When it was announced that Dwyane Wade would be returning to his hometown, and Rajon Rondo would be joining the team as they attempted to form some sort of “big three”, there were a lot of questions. Unfortunately for Chicago, most of those questions will follow them into the playoffs.
Defense wins championships… as long as you can score
This season, the Chicago Bulls attempted fewer three-point shots than every other NBA team not named the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their spacing at its best was questionable and their offense, in general, was lackluster. There’s only one other team in the playoffs with a lower three-point percentage this year (Oklahoma City), and since the All-Star break, there’s only one other team in the playoffs with a lower offensive rating (Atlanta Hawks). If you were to summarize their offense this year with one word, it would be “erratic”.
So what do the Bulls do well? They attack the basket (they ranked in the top half of the league in points scored in the paint). Their issue earlier in the year was simply that they weren’t a good enough shooting team which meant attacking the basket was more difficult as defenders were more comfortable sagging off players. Since the All-Star break, the Bulls have turned things around. They’re one of the top six teams in three-point percentage and are in the top five for almost every statistic that measures assists.
But here’s what really separates them from everyone else; Chicago is the 3rd best defensive team in the entire league (DEFRTG), behind only the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors (post-All-Star weekend). They have one of the most elite perimeter defenders in the NBA in Jimmy Butler and are solid defensively in the center with Robin Lopez. It’s this defense that gives them a puncher’s chance in the first round. If they can make it difficult for the Boston Celtics to execute their offensive game plan, this disruption might put Chicago within striking distance of stealing a game or two in the 2017 NBA Playoffs.
The Boston Celtics can’t fall at the first hurdle… can they?
Unlike the Chicago Bulls who have strayed away from league trends, the Boston Celtics love the three-point shot. On a per game basis, they attempt those shots more than the Golden State Warriors and are 3rd in the league overall. It’s a large chunk of their offense. Fortunately for Chicago, they’ve been one of the best teams in the league at defending the three-point shot, boasting a defensive field goal percentage of just 31.8% since the All-Star break.
Defensively for the Boston Celtics, the ideal scenario is to make Chicago shoot contested twos. This is something they seem to enjoy doing anyway as they are 8th in field goal attempts between 15 and 19 feet from the basket, despite making less than 40% of those shots. This would help in countering any edge Chicago might have defensively. It doesn’t matter how many stops you get or turnovers you force if you aren’t making shots on the other side.
Unfortunately, this is easier said than done. The Boston Celtics are a solid defensive team but they still have to put Isaiah Thomas on the floor as he’s responsible for the bulk of their scoring. He’s also responsible for a lot of the points that they give up, not through a lack of effort defensively but more or less through an average defensive skillset trapped in the body of one of the smallest players the league has seen. The gargantuan aberrations that are your average NBA athlete can simply shoot over Thomas as if, for a moment, he ceased to exist.
The other area the Boston Celtics will need to focus on to avoid an upset is rebounding. During the four-game regular season series, the Bulls dominated the glass, out-rebounding the Celtics 195-157 overall, including a 60-29 advantage on offensive boards. The Celtics can’t allow themselves to be pushed around like that in the playoffs, especially in the first round against a team that doesn’t have many advantages over them. One of the keys to preventing the Bulls from seizing up so many second chance opportunities will be to actively box out Robin Lopez who is one of the craftiest offensive rebounders in the league. This isn’t just the role of the “bigs” however, this is a team effort that will require everyone to buy in.
The Celtics will also have to put an emphasis on getting everyone involved offensively. It’s more than likely that the Chicago Bulls will experiment with mismatches, putting Jimmy Butler onto Isaiah Thomas and possibly even altering their defensive scheme on pick and rolls to try and trap Thomas. With Thomas being the focal point of the defense, others will need to step up (cue Al Horfords return to All Star form).
Boston is undoubtedly the favorite entering this first round match-up but the Chicago Bulls are more than capable of snatching this series away if the Celtics don’t remain vigilant. The Bulls edge on defense and rebounding should ensure a fun series as opposed to a clean sweep but in the end, short of a perfect storm, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Boston doesn’t advance to the second round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs for the first time since 2012.
