The MVP award is the NFL’s most coveted piece of hardware given out at the NFL Honors award ceremony. This year the race for the MVP award is more unpredictable than ever in recent memory. Last season Cam Newton was the unanimous MVP and offensive player of the year making a prediction for this reward rather straightforward. Def Pen now presents NFL MVP Picks. Each NFL staff writer gave a well thought out explanation for why they believe their player is more deserving of the award.
2016 NFL MVP
Derek Carr
MVP stands for most valuable player. I think a lot of people don’t understand what the word valuable means when voting for this award. Derek Carr is the clear-cut answer when it comes to the MVP award. For much of this decade, the Raiders have been the west coast version of the Browns. Oakland hasn’t had a winning season since 2002, before this season. Carr didn’t only win 12 games in Oakland this year, but he has completely changed the culture. When Derek Carr broke his leg late in the year, the Raiders couldn’t even pick up first downs let alone win games. You saw the impact of losing Carr in the recent playoff game against the Texans. Without Derek Carr, the Raiders are probably a 5-win team. That’s called value folks! The real question is how many wins does Carr give the Raiders by himself.
I’m not so sure you can say the other MVP candidates add as many wins to their team as Carr does. In 4 games without Tom Brady, the Patriots went 3-1, which extrapolates, to a 12-4 record over the course of a 16 game season. That disqualifies Brady despite the extraordinary numbers. The Packers went 10-6 this year, that’s not MVP caliber from Aaron Rodgers. Without Derek Carr, the Raiders not only miss the playoffs but also are probably picking in the top 5 of the NFL Draft.
Derek Carr has carried the Raiders this year. Oakland’s defense is by far the worst of any MVP candidate. I would also consider his coach Jack Del Rio, a coach on a notch below some others who is also heavily defensive-minded. No one would take Jack Del Rio over Bill Belichick, Mike McCarthy, or Dan Quinn (who’s aided by Kyle Shanahan).
Then again I would have given the MVP award to Peyton Manning the year he didn’t play a single game for the Colts. He proved how valuable he was when Indianapolis had the worst record in football and were awarded Andrew Luck the following year. Carr is the MVP. Give the offensive player of the year award to Matt Ryan. I just tend to believe there should be a distinguishing factor between the two. By the way, Carr’s numbers are pretty good. He had a 28-6 TD to Interception ratio.
Tom Brady
Yes, the Tom Brady that missed four games this year due to suspension is my candidate for the MVP. In Brady’s 12 starts, he managed to lead the Patriots to an 11-1 record along with a first round bye. He threw for 3,554 yards, 28 touchdowns, two interceptions, and finished with a passer rating of 112.2. Records were also broken as Brady danced his way into the end zone and broke the single season record for touchdowns to interceptions ratio, previously held by Nick Foles. Impressive numbers for a 39 year old right? It is unlikely that Brady will receive the MVP honors when announced in February, solely based on the fact that he missed the four games at the start of this season. But he sure as heck made it difficult for us to decide. The only question now is: were those 12 starts enough to cement Tom Brady as the Leagues Most Valuable Player?
Matt Ryan
For those of you who don’t think Matty Ice (Matt Ryan for the common fan) deserves the MVP for the 2017 NFL season, please allow me to present my case. In the NFL, a team can only go as far as the quarterback takes them. “Experts” projected the Atlanta Falcons to have a below average year and feast alongside the other bottom feeders in the NFL. However, because of Matt Ryan’s historic quarterback play, his team far and above exceeded expectations. Last year Matt Ryan solely focused on force-feeding Julio Jones; this season he turned the entire wide receiving core into a viable threat. Per Elias Sports, Matt Ryan is the 1st quarterback to throw a touchdown pass to 13 different receivers in a single season. Before the season began, talking heads bashed the Falcons for spending too much money on WR2 Mohamed Sanu who tallied 59 receptions, 653 yards, and four touchdowns this season. He was a fantastic and reliable receiver; better than I expected. Taylor Gabriel, whom the Cleveland Browns cut this offseason, roped in 35 receptions for 579 yards and six touchdowns. Do those sound like WR3 numbers to you?? Having running backs as dynamic, quick, and shifty as Freeman and Coleman help as well. Ryan threw for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns (7 interceptions). While those numbers show a huge year, the most glaring statistic is completing 69.9 percent of his passes this season while averaging a league-high 9.26 yards per attempt. Because Tom Brady played in 12/16 games this season (which I do not think is a reason he shouldn’t win the MVP – he just was outperformed), there are only a few statistical numbers to compare how well Brady, Rodgers, and Ryan played. One of them is yards/attempt. This season Rodgers averaged 7.26 yards/attempt, Brady averaged 8.23 yards/attempt, and, as I mentioned earlier, Ryan averaged 9.26 yards/attempt while completing a higher percentage of passes (Rodgers – 65.7%, Brady – 67.4%; Ryan – 69.9%). Additionally, Matt Ryan had a 136.1 passer rating on deep passes (20+ yards) this season, the highest rating in the past ten years, and he was the only quarterback this season who did not throw an interception on a deep pass, per Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus.
Matt Ryan was also extremely efficient when throwing the football. According to CBS writer Will Brinson, Ryan finished 2nd in the NFL in total passing yards while throwing the 17th most attempts in the NFL. The Falcons were the 8th greatest statistical offense of all time, tying with the Greatest Show on Turf (Rams circa Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt, and Marshall Faulk).
The Atlanta Falcons produced one of the greatest offensive runs the NFL has ever seen – and Matt Ryan led it. The Falcons’ defense allowed 25.4 points per game; good for 27th of 32 teams. Without the quarterback play of Matt Ryan this season, the Falcons do not win 11 games. Plain and simple. Matt Ryan – you better get fitted for a new suit and a good barber; you’re going to need to look dapper accepting the MVP trophy.
Aaron Rodgers
Despite starting out the season 4-6, Aaron Rodgers deserves serious consideration for MVP honors this year. After Green Bay’s 3rd straight loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins in week 11, Rodgers flipped a switch. Rodgers went into, well… Rodgers mode. Green Bay got hot fast and won the next six games, defeating three playoff teams, while going on to steal the NFC North title from the Lions in week 17, beating them 31-24. In that six-game stretch, Rodgers put up impressive numbers. Including 1667 passing yards, 15 TDs, and 0 interceptions. Rodgers led the Packers to a 10-6 record (5-1 vs. division opponents), and the 4th ranked offense. Rodgers captured a division crown for the 5th time in the past six years even with Green Bay’s sometimes challenging schedule (opponents posted a .546 winning % this season). 12 of 16 games were against teams with at least a .500 winning %. 7 of 16 games were against playoff teams, but that couldn’t phase Aaron Rodgers & the Packers as the team went 5-2 in these games and Green Bay’s offense scored 27.9 points per game. Rodgers excelled in these seven games, throwing for 1759 yards, reaching the end zone 20 times with only three interceptions. Rodgers led the league with 40 passing touchdowns and added four rushing scores to that total. He threw for 4,428 yards and was only intercepted seven times. Aaron Rodgers is the definition of clutch and arguably has the strongest resume to back up his case for 2016 MVP honors. If Rodgers gets the nod, this will be his 3rd time receiving the award (2011 & 2014).
Ezekiel Elliott & Dak Prescott
It’s hard to pinpoint one rookie who made an unbelievable impact on an NFL team to the point where he was considered for the NFL MVP award. In the case of the Dallas Cowboys, they have a pair of rookies who stepped into new roles and changed the fortunes for ‘America’s Team.’ Dallas ripped off an impressive 13-3 record, an NFC East Division title and people are talking Super Bowl when it comes to the team in Big D. But it’s not the same Cowboys of old; there’s a duo leading the Cowboys to new heights.
The Cowboys used the fourth overall pick on Ohio State standout running back Ezekiel Elliott and later used a fourth-round pick on Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott. The expectations for Elliott were already high going into his rookie campaign, but Dak came into his spot after a preseason injury to Tony Romo which sidelined the Cowboys latest franchise QB. Dallas went into their week one matchup against an NFC East rival in the New York Giants, a team looking to feast on the rookies and for the most part, they were held in check.
Following the Cowboys opening night loss, they ripped off 11 straight wins before facing the Giants again and losing a close matchup, ending the season with two huge wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions and eventually resting their starters in a meaningless week 17 matchup against the Eagles.
But win or lose, one thing remained consistent. The Cowboys continued to rip off some impressive offensive performances headlined by their backfield rookies. Prescott and Elliott lead the Cowboys to top five marks in every major offensive statistical category. Zeke led the NFL in rush attempts and yards, and he also was top five in touchdowns, yards per carry and yards per game. Prescott’s stats might not quite hold up as well as Zeke, not cracking the top 15 in any major quarterback category, but he did not turn the ball over much, and he managed the game very well as a rookie playing under the immense pressure of being the Cowboys quarterback. The statistics might not hold up, but as the lead man for the best team in football, his name deserves some consideration.
While it’s very unlikely a rookie would come away with the award, the best chance the Cowboys could bring the NFL MVP to Arlington would be if Dak and Zeke were named co-MVP, softening the blow a little bit. It’s also important to remember that the rookies might not have been anywhere if not for their All-Pro offensive line, a group that also has received much praise for their stellar effort this season.
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
– Micah Malamisuro
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a legit chance at the Super Bowl, and they owe a lot to their running back. Le’Veon Bell said earlier this week that he is changing the NFL like Steph Curry changed the NBA. A bold statement that might have been a bit of an exaggeration, but just shows how much confidence the back has.
Bell has been the shot in the arm that Pittsburgh needed to get into the playoffs and in prime position to make a run at the big game. He has averaged over 100 yards per game rushing and over 50 yards receiving this year, the first player to ever reach the feat. Le’Veon is unlike most backs as he has quickness, power, and elite vision, unlike anyone else. While watching him take the ball out of the backfield, it is hard to believe that he ends up gaining seven yards on individual plays. If you have watched Bell play at all, you know his greatest strength, his patience.
The Steelers had fallen off the horse a little bit as they lost four games in a row and with the Baltimore Ravens right along side, the AFC North race was going to be tight. Enter…Le’Veon Bell.
The 100 yards rushing and 50 yards receiving is a remarkable accomplishment, but during the Steelers win streak to close out the season, Bell averaged almost 140 yards rushing and 50 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. He also broke the single-game rushing franchise mark with 236 yards and then the same milestone again, playoff style with 167 yards. He just keeps getting better.
The crazy statistics that Bell had is what makes one wonder what could have been. “Juice,” as his head coach Mike Tomlin calls him due to his resemblance to O.J. Simpson, did not appear in 4 games this season. He sat out the first three games of the year because of a missed drug test in the offseason and sat out the season finale with the division title already wrapped up. Here is what Bell could’ve done if he had a full year load if we incorporate his averages into the four missed games. Prepare for the dropping of your jaw.
He would have led the league in rushing with 1,691 yards, beating out Ezekiel Elliot by 60 yards. But the versatility is the best thing about the Pro Bowl running back…right? He would’ve had 100 catches and 821 receiving yards. These are crazy numbers for a man who is not even involved in the MVP talk because of games missed, but then why is Tom Brady?
While maybe you aren’t impressed because he isn’t yet close to a 2k-yard season, he would’ve had a great chance at not just leading the league in rushing, but also broke the single-season record for most receptions by a running back- 102 catches. Yes, he could’ve led the league in rushing and been able to say that was not the most impressive individual achievement he reached that year.
But what is value exactly? Because it seems that, somewhere we lost the definition of the MVP award. MVP= Most Valuable Player. It does not mean who has been the most impressive this year. It does mean who brings wins. If you replaced them with an average player how far would the drop-off be? Take Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot for example. Throw in Tony Romo and this team still, wins 10 or 11 games at the least. Take out Ezekiel Elliot and throw in Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris and do the wins drop off? Let’s be rea, the value on the Dallas Cowboys is the offensive line. Ezekiel Elliot isn’t touched until he’s five yards past the line of scrimmage and Dak Prescott has enough time to close his eyes count to 5, open them and then throw a pass. If this were a real race, I’d have to take a real hard look at Derek Carr and Le’Veon Bell. Take either of them off the team, and there is a significant drop off in their team’s offensive production. Just check the game tape from last week when the Houston Texans handled the Oakland Raiders. Then look at what Bell did last week to keep the lead against the Miami Dolphins.
Le’Veon Bell is about to be franchise tagged and paid like the best running back in the league next year- a label he is worthy of.
So who do you got for NFL MVP? Let us know!