The MLB Playoffs are finally here. After the Wild Card games, there are now only 8 teams left standing. In this National League Preview, I will discuss each team’s chance of advancing to the World Series. Who has the best chance of playing in November?
Chicago Cubs (103-58)
The Cubs were clearly the best team in baseball this season. They were the only team with at least 100 wins and are led by the best manager in baseball Joe Madden. Chicago’s run differential of + 252 proves they are the best team in the game. The pressure is on to break the curse. Can the Cubs win their first world series since 1908?
The Cubs sported the 3rd best offense in baseball behind only the Red Sox and the Rockies. In terms of National League play their offense shines above the other playoff teams. The MVP’s of the Cubs lineup are Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Both corner infielders hit .292 with 71 combined homers. Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler, and Javier Baez have also had nice years hitting above .270.
In terms of fielding, the Cubs have invested heavily in that department. They essentially gave Jason Heyward a boatload of money because he has a good throwing arm despite hitting .230 this year. Addison Russell and Kris Bryant are pretty automatic from the left side of the infield. That hasn’t resulted in a ton of success ranking 22nd in fielding percentage (.983). There are some guys on this team who don’t have a ton of range Ben Zobrist, Wilson Contreras, Jorge Soler.
Chicago’s real strength is that pitching staff. The Cubs team ERA of 3.15 is first by a big margin. The current playoff rotation as of now is Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and John Lackey. The Cubs bullpen got a big boost by the trade acquisition of Aroldis Chapman. I hate to be negative but I can’t see how this number isn’t skewed by the National League. Of course, this goes for all National League teams but the standings say it all. 10 out of 15 teams had winning records in the American League, only 6 had winning records in the National League.
Chicago is the team to beat in the NL. I just really worry about the pressure that comes along with breaking the curse. The Giants in the NLDS could be the toughest test right out of the gates.
2. Washington Nationals (95-67)
What a difference a year makes in Washington D.C. A year ago Jonathan Papelbon was throwing punches at the teams best player Bryce Harper. In comes new manager Dusty Baker and the team suddenly finds themselves as the 2nd seed in the NL. In any other year, the Nats could find themselves the favorites. I like their chances to advance vs. LA.
The Nationals had the 8th best offense in the league (763 runs). Offseason pickup Daniel Murphy has been the Nationals MVP this season hitting .347 this season. They also had 6 guys to hit at least 20 homers (Murphy, Espinosa, Rendon, Harper, Werth, Ramos). Wilson Ramos, in particular, will miss the postseason due to a torn ACL, a huge loss to say the least. The Nationals also have a speed element on their side with Ben Revere and Trea Turner. Even Bryce Harper had 20 plus steals. The Nationals are a dangerous team.
The Nationals have been a terrific fielding team ranking 2nd in the league in fielding (.988). There isn’t a ton of liabilities defensively with this team. Turner and Revere mentioned above fly and cover a ton of ground. Anthony Rendon is a stud defensive third baseman as well.
Washington also ranks 2nd in team ERA with a 3.51 mark. That ranks only behind the Cubs. This rotation is filthy that includes Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark, and Gio Gonzalez. It doesn’t look like the team in going to get ace Stephen Strasburg back which really hurts their chances. In terms of closers, I trust Mark Melancon to get the job done.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71)
Dave Roberts has these guys rolling on way to a division title. The Dodgers have also failed to win a playoff series since 2013 losing three series since. This Dodgers team hasn’t gotten playoff production for their ace Clayton Kershaw. He is the most important player for them and needs to pitch his way to two victories to give them a chance. LA’s +87 run differentially is about where it should be a 3 seed.
Offensively the Dodgers struggle at 14th in the majors (725 runs). This team has primarily been carried by Corey Seager and Justin Turner. Outside of them, only the first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has had a productive season. The Dodgers outfield has the most question marks where they have been plugging and playing guys all year. It still remains to be seen who will start for them game to game.
The Dodgers are pretty good defensively where they rank 7th (.986). Dave Roberts is so creative with his lineup they play with other combinations a ton. Josh Reddick is terrific defensively in the outfield, so is Yaseil Puig. Adrian Gonzalez is a gold glover at first.
LA has a 3.70 team ERA which ranks 5th in the league. Thus far the Dodgers will go with Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, and Kenta Maeda. All three have had productive seasons giving LA a chance to win. The bullpen is lead by closer Kenley Jansen who is always money.
4. San Francisco Giants (87-75)
I’m going to say this right now because it is true. The Cubs are terrified of the Giants in round one. This team has been here before and always perform winning the World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Any team led by Bruce Bochy is going to be a tough out. They had a run differential of +84 and could be turning the corner at the right time.
The Giants are not an offensive powerhouse ranking 19th in runs (715). That mark is the worst of any playoff team. This team lost an edge when they traded third baseman Matt Duffy to Tampa. No one hit 20 homers on this team. There wasn’t even a player who hit .290. This team gets it done collectively. Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Angel Pagan all hit at least .275.
The strength of this team is defense. The Giants lead baseball with a (.988) percentage. Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik are the best middle infield duo in baseball. Buster Posey is just about as good as it gets behind the plate. Denard Span and Hunter Pence are awesome in the outfield as well.
San Fran ranks 4th in ERA with 3.65. This rotation is hard to match with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Semardjzia. The one part that does scare me with the Giants is their bullpen isn’t particularly strong. That could hurt this team. I expect them to give the Cubs a run but to lose in 5 games.
