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Entering the 2018-19 NBA season, the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors were hailed as the best two teams in the Eastern Conference and the Golden State Warriors’ biggest obstacle to the throne. Thus far this season, Toronto has lived up to that reputation. Boston has not.
The Raptors are firing on all cylinders this season. They lead the Eastern Conference with a record of 12-3. They’re a deep team led by the deadly two-way duo consisting of Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard, plus a rejuvenated Serge Ibaka, who is averaging a career-best 17.4 points per game to go along with 8.4 rebounds per game.
It has been a different story for the Celtics. At 8-6, they have the fourth-best record in the East, but that’s an utter failure considering expectations. The Celtics might be even deeper than the Raptors, with six players posting double-digit scoring averages. Despite all of their talent, the C’s have had trouble putting the ball in the basket on a consistent basis, ranking 24th in offensive rating. That’s a stark contrast to the Raptors’ mark of the third-best offense in the league. The Celtics have hung their hats on their defense thus far, boasting the NBA’s top defensive rating. In fact, no team has had a better defensive rating than this Celtics team’s mark of 101.0 since the 2015-16 season.
Featured Pick #1: Will a team be winning at the end of every quarter? (No, the lead will change)
These are two of the top teams in the East, and even if their records suggest that Toronto is significantly better, there’s a reason Boston was favored to make the NBA Finals entering the season. The Celtics are extremely deep, and their five-out offense powered by versatility personified, Al Horford, can be a lethal one. The Celtics have shown a propensity to miss open shots, but if those shots fall at even a league-average rate, Boston will make this a seriously good game, especially when you factor in homecourt advantage.
Further evidence for this pick can be found by looking at how each team has performed in each individual quarter this season. The Raptors have been significantly better than Boston in the first half of games, outscoring opponents by an average of 4.1 points in first quarters and 3.2 points in second quarters. The Celtics have outscored opponents by 3.5 points in first quarters and have been outscored by 2.1 points in second quarters.
The second halves of games have been a different story. Boston holds a slight edge in third-quarter plus-minus, 2.5 to 2.2). The fourth quarters have shown a larger differentiation; the Celtics have outscored opponents by 1.5 points in fourth quarters, while the Raptors have been outscored by 2.2 points. Toronto might rule the first half of this matchup, but expect Boston to make a run in the second half.
Featured Pick #2: How many points will be scored total? (Between 212-222)
This is the safe bet. The Celtics have the best defense in basketball, which makes one hesitant to pick the over on points scored. Then again, with the Raptors’ third-ranked offense, plus Boston’s offensive potential (they have Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum, and those guys can get real hot). Last time these teams played, the combined score was 114. The safest bet is that it once again ends up in that middle range.
Featured Pick #3: Who will win the game? (Raptors by 1-5)
The last time these clubs battled, the Raptors came out on top, winning with a score of 113-101. A few things are different this time around. Both clubs will be more comfortable, as the previous game was the Celtics’ second of the season and the Raptors’ first. Gordon Hayward gets his legs back little more each game, and at this point, his minute restriction is mostly a thing of the past. Plus, the Celtics will have homecourt advantage this time.
Look for this to be a closer game than the last matchup between these teams. Boston’s confidence should be up after their best win of the season, which came against the Chicago Bulls, and their players gain a bit more cohesiveness each time they play. With that said, the Raptors have firmly been the better team this season. Our pick is a Raptors win, but a close one
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