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For the past few seasons, the AFC South has been close to the laughingstock of professional football. But that’s not necessarily true anymore. Tennessee was one of the bigger surprises early on this season. But they’ve regressed back to where many predicted. Houston is the opposite. Many gave up on them after a slow start. But they’ve won seven in a row. Outside of these two, Indianapolis is surging. Houston needs this game to stave off a Colts run at the division title and Tennessee needs this game to stay alive. This won’t exactly match the Chiefs-Rams contest in terms of scoring, but it lines up as a pretty competitive, toughly fought slug-fest.
Featured Pick #1: Who will be the first quarterback sacked first in the second half? (Marcus Mariota)
Houston’s offensive line is as bad as it gets. They have been for most of the season. But Mariota looks to face more pressure as it pertains to this question for a couple of reasons:
First, Houston has monsters along the defensive line and on the edge. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney trump any pass rushers Tennessee has. Even though as a unit they’re relatively even. The Texans defense has 28 combined sacks. That ranks a league-average 15th. For comparison, the Titans have 23, which ranks 25th.
Secondly, Tennessee should be facing a significant deficit heading into the second half. Putting them into more passing situations. Both teams have been sacked 33 times. However, Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked that many times on 30 fewer pass attempts. As bad as Houston’s line has been, Tennessee’s has been just as bad. If not worse.
Featured Pick #2: Who will score the Texans first touchdown? (DeAndre Hopkins)
Houston has scored 22 touchdowns this season. DeAndre Hopkins has eight of them. The Texans wideout has arguably been the best receiver in the NFL this season. In total, he’s got 68 catches for 950 yards.
The running game in Houston has all but been abandoned. They only have four scores on the ground this year. So chances are the first time they visit the end zone in this one will come through the air. You could make a case for Demaryius Thomas, who the Texans traded for prior to the deadline. But in theory, Houston got him to take pressure off of Hopkins.
DeAndre Hopkins is still their go-to guy on offense. They need him to succeed in order to succeed as a whole. In this game, they should look to set the tone and get their elite wideout plenty of looks early. Just to let the Titans knows they’re in for a long night. Plus, Hopkins is one of the most gifted red zone targets in all the league. Whenever Houston gets close to the end zone, they’ll look to Hopkins.
Featured Pick #3: Who will win the game? (Texans by 13+)
Everything points to Houston in this game. Home field. The hot team – winners of seven straight – going up against the team that’s reeling – losers in four of the last six. So the question is not who, but by how much.
Tennessee might have enough to keep this one close. Offensively, the Titans don’t really have a path to outscore the Texans. Tennessee is 30th in passing yards per game and 19th in rushing yards per game. That’s a bad combination. But if they have a hope in this one, it’ll be to control the ball and play solid defense. Sort of a throwback to the old three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era of football yore.
The Titans defensive scheme might be enough to keep this within two touchdowns. But that’s not a great bet. Early on in the season, it looked like Tennessee’s defense was a force to be reckoned with. However, last week they lost to Indianapolis by 28. And Houston’s offense is every bit as dangerous as the Colts, albeit dangerous in different ways and at different positions.
Logic says the wheels have come off as far as this Titans season is concerned. Whether that’s true or not right now is irrelevant because if this game gets out of hand there will be no doubt.
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