Super Bowl Sunday is America’s best unofficial national holiday. There’s football, parties, funny commercials, a halftime concert, and betting (among other things). Surely, Super Bowl LII will prove no different. Whether you’re the biggest New Patriots fan, detest the entire franchise, or genuinely couldn’t care less, there’s still surely something that will capture your intrigue.
The Basics
Super Bowl LII: Philadelphia Eagles (NFC representative) vs. New England Patriots (AFC representative; 4.5-point favorite); Feb. 4th, 3:30 p.m., NBC; U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcasters: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya (sideline reporter)
Performers: Pink (National Anthem), Justin Timberlake (halftime)
Background
With a win, it would be the New England Patriots’ sixth Super Bowl win with Tom Brady at quarterback and Bill Belichick as head coach. The franchise has also appeared in – and lost – four additional Super Bowls (two with Brady and Belichick), and lost in the 1963 championship game (prior to the Super Bowl-era).
The Philadelphia Eagles have appeared in two Super Bowls, losing both. As a franchise, they have three championships, all coming before the Super Bowl-era. The most recent was in 1960.
These two teams played each other in Super Bowl XXXIX on Feb. 6, 2004. The Patriots won 24-21.
Things To Watch
This game could come down to which team can put more pressure on the opposing quarterback. Tom Brady is still nursing a hand injury that is unlikely to be completely healed before the game. Plus, at 40 years old, he basically plays in a phone booth. If the Eagles can get to him – especially early on – it could make the entire Patriots offense uncomfortable and unable to find a rhythm.
On the other side, Philadelphia had to lean on Nick Foles after their starting quarterback (and MVP candidate) Carson Wentz went down late in the regular season. Foles has played well this postseason, but this is by far the biggest game of his career. And he has shown a habit of giving opposing defenses a chance to make a play on an errant pass. It’s up to the Patriots defense to take advantage of such chances that may come their way. If New England can put pressure on Foles, it may accelerate his internal clock and force him into throws he doesn’t want to make.
New England coach Bill Belichick is notorious for being the best at game planning to take away what he sees is the opponents biggest advantage. Watching what the Eagles do (or don’t do) early in the game could be indicative of what Belichick is trying to take away. Philadelphia would love to establish an early running game to take pressure off Foles and keep Brady off the field. If the Patriots defense can force some early three-and-outs, it might be a tall challenge for Philly to find an offensive rhythm on the fly.
Potential Super Bowl LII MVPs (for betting odds on potential MVPs, check out the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook PDF via ESPN)
Selecting the Most Valuable Player in these games almost always favors the quarterbacks. But there’s plenty of exceptions. Sometimes one play can virtually win a player an MVP. Outside of Tom Brady and Nick Foles, here are some other players that could challenge for Super Bowl LII MVP:
James White or Dion Lewis
Both these Patriots running backs New England love to use in the passing and running game. In their last Super Bowl win against the Atlanta Falcons, White was a strong MVP candidate, as he scored three total touchdowns (two rushing and one receiving). Although the award ultimately was given to Brady, White’s performance in Super Bowl LI offers a good template for what a running back has to do to win it. If the Patriots end up featuring one of Lewis or White (or even Rex Burkhead), they could definitely have an opportunity to pry the MVP award from a quarterback.
Pick a defensive back
Interceptions can be random, especially in one-game sample sizes. Malcolm Butler was an unknown until he picked off Russell Wilson at the goal line during the closing seconds of Super Bowl XLIX. That in itself was enough to put Butler in the MVP conversation (although Brady ended up winning that one as well). If a defensive back can come up with a big interception and one other play – be it another interception, fumble recovery, sack, whatever – it would give them a case for the MVP.
Julian Edelman
Chances are that if Edelman has a big game, that means Brady will have a big game as well. If that’s the case, Brady earns yet another MVP trophy. But here’s the cache: Edelman returns punts for the Patriots. If the wide receiver has a good receiving game and adds one big return (that doesn’t even necessarily have to go for a touchdown) voters could give him the MVP nod.
Fletcher Cox
He’s pretty clearly the Eagles best defensive player. And there’s a scenario where the Eagles win a tight, low-scoring game. If that happens, in all likelihood, Cox’s presence will have been felt. The defensive lineman is realistically a couple sacks and a forced fumble away from becoming Super Bowl LII MVP.
Jay Ajayi or LeGarrette Blount
As stated earlier, the Eagles best chance at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy rests on being able to establish an early run game. If either of these backs can gain somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 yards and a touchdown they could be the catalyst that propels Philadelphia to victory.
Be sure to check out Super Bowl LII odds at TopBet.
Notable Super Bowl LII Prop Bets (taken from Westgate Las Vegas Superbook via ESPN)
48 total points scored
This is a pretty standard bet for people who keep up with these types of things. If you don’t have a rooting interest in either team, rooting for points for scoring’s sake can be fun. On the other hand, this number is usually set high because people like to bet on points being scored. Although it less fun, taking the under might be a smart play.
Coin toss
The odds are the same for the coin landing on either heads or tails. But what’s more fundamental to betting than wagering on a coin flip?
Yardage of New England punter Ryan Allen’s first punt (over/under 45.5)
This season Allen is averaging 43.4 yards per punt, which is a career low. But the elements are taken out of the equation since the game is in a dome. The odds are -110 no matter what side you bet on, but this could be a fun random bet to add to list if you’re so inclined. (Note: both numbers used here – the Super Bowl over/under and Allen’s season average – is based on his gross yardage, not net average, so any yardage accumulated on a returned kick are not factored in.)
First pass by Tom Brady
The odds that his first pass is a completion is currently at -270, but the odds its an incompletion is +220. If you are rooting against the Pats and think they can put pressure on Brady, betting on his first incompletion coming before a completion could make some sense from a betting perspective.
Will Stephen Gostkowski’s (of the Patriots) first kickoff result in a touchback
Since the NFL started monkeying with the spot of kickoffs and touchbacks, the number of kickoff returns have gone way down across the league. But the Patriots often try to have their kickoffs go high and land just short of the goal line in order to try and pin the opponent further back than if they just took the touchback. If they try that approach, there will be a return, which would make betting on a return (at +120) a pretty smart bet.
