The NBA-Twitter world has been in disarray since the Finals ended. From Dennis Rodman making diplomatic visits to North Korea to our annual discussion of how good Nikola Jokic is, we’ve been in full offseason mode. I thought I’d do my part to soothe tensions by making a completely pointless list of the best young players in the game. Up next, the Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid.
Joel Embiid has cemented himself as an all-time great NBA personality with the game to back it up. Health might be the only thing standing in his way.
A few notes to consider:
- Playoff potential (or performance) is weighed heavily. Players who have a major weakness to be exploited will be docked accordingly, at least until it’s somewhat rectified.
- The list is a ranking based on projecting the players going forward, not a ranking of how good the players are right now.
- I haven’t included anyone from the upcoming draft class. I have too much self-respect to watch college basketball, nevermind summer league.
- This is a list of the best talent under 23. The best. All of these guys are really good. If I happen to put one guy over your favorite player, it’s not that I hate your favorite player or team. Please try to remember this before you set fire to my Twitter mentions calling me an idiot (though you certainly might be right in a more general sense).
- The cutoff point, age-wise, was anyone still listed as 23 or under via Basketball-Reference.
Up next, the league’s up-and-coming centers. Or Unicorns, as they’re more commonly known.
Number One: Joel Embiid
Joel Embiid has played just 94 games and less than 3000 minutes in his NBA career, but has generated more excitement and joy than most players muster in a lifetime. The legendary popstar-botherer is already the most quotable player in the league. His shit-talk is delivered hard, and almost always backed-up:
And keep caring about stats and not your team success….. your +/- was ass @youngwhiteside #Softy
— Joel Embiid (@JoelEmbiid) October 14, 2017
While his antics drive clicks, his play drives wins. Embiid (23/11/3/2) finished eleventh in the NBA in RPM (plus 5.10). He was the centerpiece of the most devastating five-man line-up in the league last season (the Sixers’ starters who posted a barely believable plus 21.4 net-rating in 600 minutes). Embiid is at the forefront of the unicorn revolution, but how he gets things done bears a closer examination.
Domination
Though fans lust after highlights of Embiid facing up and shaking guys off the dribble, the reality is he’s actually a below average isolation scorer (0.82 points-per-possession, 42nd percentile). Where Embiid truly has opponents making half-time underwear adjustments is in the post. The Hakeem Olajuwon comparisons are apt. Embiid has the entire arsenal, from a beautiful spin move to a reliable jump-hook. And a dream-shake, of course:
Embiid draws over twice as many fouls on an average post possession (20.9 percent) as he does in isolation (9.1 percent). Which is not to say he doesn’t have value facing-up. Despite being only a so-so jump-shooter, Embiid can consistently get defenders to bite on his pump-fake. Giannis-eque euro-steps from the foul line when defenders close-out hard are a sight to behold:
Passing is probably Embiid’s most underrated attribute. While his usage rate remained incredibly high in his second season (33.9 percent, second in the league behind MVP James Harden), Embiid was less of a black hole on offense. Many of his assists (3.2 per-game, sixth among centers) come off of dribble-handoffs, a staple of the Sixers’ motion offense. Embiid can use his heft to nail defenders with screens that are very difficult to fight through:
Defensively, Embiid is a monster (against ALMOST everyone in the league, a point I’ll touch on in the next section). He has great feel around the basket, and his timing is second to none. Shaquille O’Neal was a sporadically great defender in his day, but even at his worst, he was still an enormously powerful dude to challenge at the rim. More often than not, you’d get knocked on your ass. Embiid presents a similar challenge, but with far more natural instinct and motor on defense than Shaq ever brought:
Hamartia
Embiid has some kinks to iron out of his game. Sure. But there is only one real cause for concern as the Sixers march forward into NBA Finals contention: can he guard in space? This was a point touched on by Zach Lowe in a recent podcast with Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert. When teams put Embiid in the pick-and-pop with a big who can shoot three-pointers (like the Boston Celtics did with Al Horford), the big man isn’t just less effective on defense, he’s a liability:
This kind of action doesn’t just allow Horford the opportunity to bomb away from three. It takes one of the most feared rim-protectors in the league away from the paint. The fact that Horford only hit two of his eleven threes in the series was immaterial. Embiid had to respect his willingness to take them. Driving lanes opened up like the Red Sea. The Celtics shot a whopping 66.4 percent in the restricted area versus the Sixers in the second round, a mark far greater than expected given the absence of superstar Kyrie Irving.
Perhaps the answer lies in conditioning. Or weight management. Maybe a guy like Embiid gets to a point where the havoc he reeks inside and on the boards far outweighs any defensive downside. Or maybe the league just looks very different in a post-Warriors world (pretty sure it’s coming sometime this century).
The key point every fan has to realize: No big man in the NBA in 2018 is “perfect” for the modern game.
Best Player in the League?
These concerns, and the ever-pervasive health question, aren’t nearly enough to keep Embiid off the top of this list. If he stays healthy, perpetual top-ten status is all but assured. His ceiling, however, could be the best in the league. Embiid might have problems in certain match-ups right now, but the dynamics of the NBA rarely stay static.
Even the Warriors changed their approach in 2017-18, ranking 16th in three-point attempts per-100 possessions. This was a tactical adjustment to capitalize on the acres of space inside the arc the threat of their shooting was creating. The Rockets’ iso-heavy/ switch-everything approach turned the playoffs on its head.
The Sixers are far from a finished product. If Ben Simmons (the number one guard on my list) can extend his range beyond five feet, the products of The Process could be a nightmare match-up in their own right. A switchable bunch of six-foot-ten and over monsters with passing and basketball IQ oozing from their pores.
I hope we get to see Embiid dominate the east for years to come. A talent and personality so transcendental deserves it.
