Ranking the top-five young power forwards in the NBA. At number two, the Chicago Bulls’ Lauri Markkanen.
The NBA Twitter world has been in disarray since the Finals ended. From Dennis Rodman making diplomatic visits to North Korea to our annual discussion of how good Nikola Jokic is. I thought I’d do my part to soothe tensions by making a completely pointless list of the best young players in the game.
A few notes to consider:
- Playoff potential (or performance) is weighted heavily. Players who have a major weakness to be exploited will be docked accordingly, at least until it’s somewhat rectified.
- The list is a ranking based on projecting the players going forward, not a ranking of how good the players are right now.
- I haven’t included anyone from the upcoming draft class. Trae Young may very well be the next Steph Curry, but we won’t know for sure until he’s dropping in 30-footers at the highest level.
- This is a list of the best talent under-23. The best. All of these guys are really good. If I happen to put one guy over your favorite player, it’s not that I hate your favorite player or team. Please try to remember this before you set fire to my Twitter mentions calling me an idiot (though you certainly might be right in a more general sense).
- The cut-off point, age-wise, was anyone still listed as 23 or under via basketball-reference.
Number Two: Lauri Markkanen
It’s that time again, folks. Muscle-watch is upon us.
Lauri Markkanen is here at the Advocate Center working out. Word is he’s put on 10 pounds of muscle. He looks great. #BullsNation pic.twitter.com/l3uGXOE6xo
— Darnell Mayberry (@DarnellMayberry) June 14, 2018
Lauri Markkanen was unexpectedly good in his rookie season. The former Arizona Wildcat averaged 15 points, seven rebounds and 5.9 three-point attempts per-game in year one. No rookie in NBA history can match that stat line. Take away the rebounds and you’re still only left with three other guys: Kerry Kittles, Damian Lillard and fellow 2017–18 rookie Kyle Kuzma. Markkanen shot 36.2 percent from three. Hardly a lights-out rate (exactly league average per basketball-reference), but it’s impressive as hell considering he was a rookie and the Bulls don’t have a single above-average creator on their roster.
Zach LaVine’s new 78 million dollar contract with the Chicago Bulls was a head-scratcher. The principle reason posited for matching such a large amount: to lose LaVine would mean losing the “jewel” of the Jimmy Butler trade. I’m happy for LaVine. Live life and prosper. With all due respect, though, that title belongs to Markkanen.
The Dirk comparisons are inevitable. Tall Euro with touch. Floppy Unfair in the grander scheme, it’s worth noting the young Bull compares favorably to Dirk at this early stage. Dirk didn’t start in his rookie season, so looking raw numbers is useless. Skill-wise, though, Markkanen is ahead of the curve.
Dirk eventually added the ability to put the ball on the floor (facilitated in large part to his MVP-year embarrassment at the hands of the “We believe” Golden State Warriors), but it took some time. Markkanen has been pigeon-holed as a one-dimensional shooter (think Channing Frye). Not the case.
More Than Just A Shooter
“The Finnisher”, as he’s hilariously called on basketball-reference, has way more of a face-up game at than most acknowledge:
Markkanen can drive with either hand and is a tough finisher through contact. Markkanen had 63 made dunks in his first season (68 games), a higher dunk-rate than Dirk ever achieved in his career (Dirk’s career high of 48 came in 78 games back in 2004–2005). Some might scoff at including dunking in any serious analysis, but it speaks to athleticism and toughness a “soft” Euro isn’t supposed to have:
Just a light warmup from @MarkkanenLauri pregame….? pic.twitter.com/b2jhYmh88h
— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) October 29, 2017
Markkanen graded out fantastically well as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, ranking in the 86th percentile league-wide (0.98 points-per-possession). Though the total number of possessions were relatively small (roughly 48 on the season), the competence with which he was able to attack coming off screens was intriguing.
Markkanen gets smart buckets. Most of his inside scoring comes on the move either driving or cutting to the basket. The Finnisher ranked in the 75th percentile in transition in his rookie season. Though bigs often have inflated transition numbers (as mostly finishers, no pun intended*), Markkanen is far more graceful sweeping the court than you might think:
*Who am I kidding.
Defense
The average fan thinks Markkanen is terrible on defense. Perhaps it’s the Jesse Eisenberg resemblance and folk are still scarred by what a dick he was in the Social Network:
They’re wrong. Markkanen is no “stopper”, nor does he ever project to be one. What he showed in year one was an ability to play smart, tough defense. Guys who can thrive within a team defense are hideously undervalued in NBA analysis. If you aren’t athletic enough to either defend the rim or shut guys down one-on-one, you’re a “bad” defender.
Markkanen moves his feet better than advertised. Still, I don’t think this represents the average expected outcome of a Steph Curry switch:
Another reason for optimism on defense: the presence of fellow number seven draft pick from the 2018 class, Wendell Carter Jr. The former Duke Blue Devil has looked great on defense during summer league (for what that’s worth). A guy who can excel as a rim-protector and explosive help-defender is the perfect compliment to Markkanen at the five.
This Season and Beyond
The addition of Jabari Parker is an interesting wrinkle. Parker makes the most sense as a power forward (the same position as Giannis Antetokounmpo, part of the reason why the Bucks didn’t feel compelled to keep him). The Bulls (likely) starting five now features a non-shooter (Kris Dunn) plus two flammable defenders who need the ball on offense (Zach LaVine and Parker).
LaVine and Parker aren’t bad teammates. But it’s clear both guys consider themselves stars. The worst case scenario for Bulls’ fans this season is Markkanen gets lost in the shuffle.
Shots will be harder to come by in 2018–19 for Markkanen, a fact that will probably infuriate those of us who feel he has the potential to be a truly special offensive player in the NBA. Elite offenses have been built around seven-foot shooters with far less diverse skill sets. The 2013-14 Suns were projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Instead, the team posted the eighth-best offense in the association and barely missed the playoffs with 48 wins (brutal, huh?).
Those Suns ran. A lot. But, it was Channing Frye who opened up driving lanes and allowed Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic to run wild. The Bulls don’t have a point guard on the roster even close to peak Dragic. However, they’ll almost certainly be a bottom ten team this year again, so perhaps they can pry one out of the lottery.
You can’t put a price on a big man who can drive, compete defensively and stretch the floor. They are painfully rare. You’ll be seeing Markkanen’s name at the top of real plus-minus tables sooner rather than later.
