Over the past few year, Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton has developed a bit of a track record when it comes to developing toolsy NBA draft prospects. From Jonathan Isaac in 2016 to Devin Vassell this year, the Seminoles have become somewhat of a haven for prospects with elite complementary upside. Lost in all of the talk of Vassell this season, however, has been another elite prospect coming out of Tallahassee’s program: forward Patrick Williams. Coming in as a borderline five-star prospect, not a lot of people expected Williams to be a one-and-done player. Not only is he that, but he’s a likely lottery pick and could even go top 10 in the 2020 NBA Draft.
3&D Upside
Perhaps the most sought-after archetype by general managers in the modern NBA is the 3&D player – guys who have a reliable outside shot and make a difference defensively. While this archetype typically comes in the form of a wing player, it’s just as valuable in a four, where Patrick Williams projects at the next level. Williams has this elusive 3&D upside. While he shot just 50 threes this season and made 16, his shooting indicators are very strong. For starters, he made 83.8% of his free-throw attempts, and free throw shooting has long been the best indicator of a serviceable outside shot. Furthermore, his mechanics – while fairly rigid – are quite promising for someone of his size (6’8, 225 lbs), with no real form issues and a high release point on his jumper. I would bet on Williams being a guy you can’t leave open from outside, and that certainly matters for someone who does what he does.
Just monster rim protection on this possession from Florida State’s Patrick Williams. A lot of teams covet a dude his size who can switch, guard multiple positions, and block shots. pic.twitter.com/vrx5EP1p0j
— Corey Tulaba ? (@hardwoodherald) October 19, 2020
Defensively, Williams is a playmaker. He excels as a secondary rim protector and is capable of generating steals and deflections on the perimeter using his 6’11 wingspan. Sometimes he can become overly reliant on his wingspan and take too many gambles, as well as get caught ball watching, but typically he is good at recognizing it and recovering. Overall, Williams is a very aware off-ball defender and helper. We talked before about shooting indicators; one of the best defensive indicators is having both a STL% and BLK% of at least 2.0. Williams comes in at 2.5 and 5.6 respectively. Off ball defense is more valuable than on-ball defense, and that’s where he’s best.
Creation Upside
Being able to initiate offense for your team from the four or five spot is incredibly valuable for a team and opens up a lot of possibilities on the offensive end. While Williams might not be able to do that from day one, there’s reason to believe that he has secondary initiator upside as a four. There were instances this year where Williams flashed a pull-up mid-range jumper – he made 23 unassisted two-pointers away from the rim, per barttorvik.com – and that’s something that he’s been doing since high school. As a matter of fact, he was relatively reliant on a pull-up jumper when he was as young as 16.
More Patrick Williams pull-up goodness at 16 years old. He just has so many strong shooting indicators pic.twitter.com/V3VqfGrv2W
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) June 20, 2020
Pull-up shooting isn’t the only offensive creation he’s flashed, either. While his 29 assists to 50 turnovers this season may suggest otherwise, Williams is a very promising passer and is very good at operating within the pick and roll, which is ever important in the modern NBA. He does a nice job of seeing the whole floor and making quick decisions, and at the very least won’t be a ball stopper – he knows how to keep the ball moving and make solid swing passes.
Age
This may feel like a cop out, but it isn’t – age is one of the most important factors to consider when it comes to NBA draft prospects, and Williams is the youngest college player in the entire draft. Considering that he just turned 19 in August, in a normal year – with the draft in June – he would have still been 18 when he was drafted. Being so young means that Williams has the most amount of time to improve, and the team that drafts him will be able to mold his skills to their liking. Draft age has historically been a good predictor of NBA success (more indicators, I know), and it is definitely a consideration with Williams.
Weaknesses
Williams’ biggest weakness is his movement. While he’s a good vertical athlete and has a very impressive body – some of you may have seen the picture circulating that highlights his massive hamstrings – he’s very far from quick and is very clunky in his movements. Some scouts have seemingly billed him as a multi-positional defender, but it’s extremely difficult to envision that given his movement abilities. He’s going to struggle if he’s asked to defend the perimeter, meaning that he may be limited to defending just fours and small ball fives at the next level. He’ll still be able to provide value defensively, as we discussed before, but expecting him to guard guys on the outside will leave you disappointed.
2020 NBA Draft Comparison: Jerami Grant
There isn’t a great comparison out there for Williams, but I settled for Jerami Grant with a higher ceiling. Grant showed some solid creation ability in the bubble this year after the NBA restart and has developed into a very respectable NBA three-point shooter, and everything that he was doing are things that I could see from Williams. Fortunately, Williams isn’t the ball stopper that Grant is and has a higher basketball IQ, which is part of what contributes to his higher ceiling. In a 2020 NBA Draft without many sure things, Patrick Williams is a tremendous upside play in the lottery.
