Another year, another Oscars. Another Oscars, another Oscars predictions list.
I’m doing it a little differently though. Some places I decided to plug in whoever I liked best for it, even though they may not have any actual chance of getting the nomination. So think of this as a predictions/wish list hybrid.
And no, I haven’t seen each and every film released last year, but then again most of the people actually voting on this haven’t either.
Which few of these did I get right? We’ll find out on Tuesday.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Tom Hanks – Sully
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Not too much to say here. It’s doubtful that Hanks will make it to the final ballot (his movie was out too early, September), but as left-field picks go, there’s unlikelier.
Best Actress
Anna Gunn – Equity
Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
In all practical likelihood, one of these slots will go to Amy Adams for yet another nomination she doesn’t have much of a shot at winning. But I’d rather recognize Gunn and Henson, two talents that conquered TV drama in recent years and have now proven on the big screen what they’re made of in leading roles. The real thing to watch here is Huppert – the Meryl Streep of France with copious Cesar nominations and a win – potentially receiving her very first Oscar nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Stephen Lang – Don’t Breathe
Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals
I meant what I said in the Don’t Breathe review. Realistically though, expect fellow 60-something tough guy Jeff Bridges in his place. Grant (also a never-nominee, if you can believe it) has been put as a lead in some places, but could slip into supporting here to better his chances. And I don’t see the Academy being as high on Nocturnal Animals as the HFPA was, but its Golden Globes victory in this category can’t go ignored.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Janelle Monáe – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Davis has so clearly got this that the rest of list was a little hard to fill out. Octavia Spencer has been the one getting the main awards notice for Hidden Figures, but to me this is more the year for Monáe, who with both it and Moonlight is really coming into her own as an actress.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese – Silence
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
I don’t know where else Silence may show up, but as the picture Scorsese has been waiting 30 years to make, he’s not resting on his laurels one bit, as even the trailers make clear. Villeneuve was also left out of the Globes, but nominations by the DGA and BAFTA might give him some good momentum.
Best Animated Picture
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Zootopia
I’m not really up on the big international films in this genre. When in doubt, go with Pixar.
Best Picture
Fences
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Yes, as you can see, there are only five nominations. I could go off onto huge rant about how the expansion of the slots was an incredibly stupid and wrong decision, but suffice it to say I won’t be recognizing it here. But because they do have that dumb rule, maybe all my choices here will show up as actual nominations.
