The NBA Draft is soon upon us, and many teams will be looking to select the future stars of their franchise. One team who will be looking to turn their luck around is the Orlando Magic. John Hammond took over in the front office just before last year’s draft and selected Jonathan Isaac from Florida State. While the former FSU big man showed promise, he is not exactly the type of prospect that is going to pull the Magic from the root of the Eastern Conference. Isaac played limited games, and it was clear to all the type of player he could become. He projects as a rangy defender with the ability as an off-the-ball scorer, but the Magic need more than this. They need Oklahoma University guard Trae Young.
Having ranked 25th in offensive efficiency and 25th in three-point percentage, it’s quite fair to say that the Orlando Magic’s offense needs a revival. The top of this draft appears to be littered with defensively sound bigs with an outside shot, but one anomaly to this rule is Young. The Oklahoma point guard is one of the most divisive lottery prospects, but I believe he is the type of player who can set the Magic back on the right course.
Though taking a defensive-minded big is enticing, this is not the type of player who is going to elevate the Magic as a franchise. When you couple this with the fact that Orlando simply isn’t an attractive free agent destination, they almost have to take a chance on someone such as Trae Young to get a star. Though Young is absolutely a risky pick due to the fact he could end up being solely an efficient shot-chucker with no variety to his game, the Magic should pull the trigger on him. The reasons for this are endless.
The first reason the Magic should take Trae Young is that he would be their first legitimately enticing offensive building block. Nikola Vucevic is talented, but you cannot maximize a big without a legitimately great pick and roll guard. Young has the potential to be this as he ranked in the 82nd percentile on overall pick and roll efficiency, including assists. That is insane given his volume of possessions. The Magic’s best pick and roll point guard was DJ Augustin as he was in the 90th percentile. His issue was that he simply offered nothing else, and his limits as a spot-up shooter and a creator in other ways are why he has never developed in the NBA. Young can be much better.
Young does not have a linear skillset though. He is an excellent three-point shooter, and the stats suggest he will be able to involve others in pick-and-roll situations. What entices me towards Young is his ability to create as an individual without any sets run for him. Schemes are essential and I have no doubt that new Magic head coach Steve Clifford will implement a great one. But every NBA team needs someone who can create their own shot. The Magic’s only player who can do this is Evan Fournier, but he has hardly managed to turn this into great production as he perennially averages under 20 points per game. Meanwhile, Young was absurdly good at creating his own shot off the dribble as he ranked in the 88th percentile in points per possession while shooting off the dribble. His adjusted field goal percentage and adjusted three-point percentage were both over 50% in these scenarios as well. He can stroke it even when he creates the look himself.
Steve Clifford’s scheme from Charlotte uses very little isolation, but Young’s ability to create off-the-dribble would open things up for Clifford to get weirder. Young does lack some polish inside, but his ability to score as a pull-up shooter could cause defenses to move around and over commit to stopping him. This will open things up for the rest of the Magic roster to play as secondary players, which is what they all are offensively at this point in time.
The Magic already have some nice secondary pieces, which is why their offense played at such a high pace under Frank Vogel. Vogel knew that he had no one who could control the game and run half-court sets, so the Magic scheme featured a variety of hand-offs and back-screens to try to get guys moving with the ball. These also existed as a way to get the likes of Evan Fournier and Jonathon Simmons attacking downhill without the need for individual play in the half-court. Though the Magic offense looked schematically sound to the naked eye, the lack of a creator meant that they were abysmal in half-court situations. Trae Young gives them a man who can run half-court sets and potentially draw double teams after a year or two in the NBA. That would evolve everything schematically for Orlando.
The main knock on Young is a lack of ability on defense, and even as a huge fan of him it is hard to deny that his defense might be a problem in the NBA. The good thing for the Magic is that they already have two very capable perimeter and post defenders in Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac who can cover for Young. No prospect is going to be the perfect one, but Young’s offense would provide a bigger boost for the Magic than anyone’s defense would. The Magic’s defense showed signs of being solid. This was especially true when you look solely at the games that Isaac played in. The Magic posted a defensive rating of 104.1 when Isaac was on the court, compared to 111.7 when he was on the bench. There’s something there, and Isaac’s good D could help mitigate Young’s weaknesses.
Any NBA team should be looking at young players already on their roster when they are making a lottery pick. The main reasons for this are that you don’t want to create a logjam at any position and also that you want to try and fill the gaps in to form a whole roster. The Magic already have good defensive players, so they need to try and find their offensive juggernaut. Trae Young’s flaws on defense can possibly be masked at the next level but even if he struggles defensively, he will give the Magic something they don’t have at the moment. That should be incredibly valuable to their organization.
Steve Clifford is a very capable coach and an accomplished offensive mind, but unless the Magic find themselves an offensive cornerstone this summer it will not matter who their coach is. John Hammond has generally built his teams around defensive prowess and ranginess. His selection of Jonathan Isaac and his potential commitment to Aaron Gordon emphasizes his overall team building philosophy.
Young does not fit either of those things. But this is exactly why they need to draft him. Hammond’s philosophy is fantastic because the type of player he covets is the exact type of player that can cover for a high-powered guard with poor defensive abilities. The switching style of defense that Hammond envisions his team playing with is great, but it won’t reap its rewards without an offensive playmaker to go alongside it and carry the burden on the other end of the floor. Trae Young is this guy, and he will likely be there when they pick. John Hammond needs to swing for the fences with this one and turn the Orlando Magic back into a playoff team.
