Week Three of the NFL preseason offers an interesting time to look at what Vegas has in mind for the season in regards to the futures numbers. For all intents and purposes, once the third game in the opening set is crossed off, most starters are shut down in order to get ready and healthy for the regular season opener. Which is to say: There shouldn’t be any major movements to the futures until games start counting.
A lot of successful gambling comes in the form of recognizing trends … before they get so recognizable that everyone’s in the know.
Interestingly enough, of the top seven Superbowl favorites, five are located in the NFC. If the win totals generally play out in a way that benefits the house (and why would we have a reason to think otherwise?) then it stands to reason the AFC would be a better conference to find value. Maybe not in Super Bowl odds, but definitely in the win totals futures.
With the AFC figuring to be a little more wide open in terms of an open playoff spot or two, some team will surprise. If you have a sleeper AFC team in mind, now would be the time to bet on them. (Early word out of the books is that the public is hammering the Cleveland Browns over at a 5.5 (-145/+125) pretty heavily. Though that could be the Hard Knocks bump.)
In the NFC, the chances that anyone of Philadelphia, New Orleans, Minnesota, Los Angeles (Rams), Green Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta, are just spread out too evenly. And rightly so, unless you happen to believe Russell Wilson in Seattle or Dak Prescott in Dallas is a miracle worker. Or that Jimmy Garoppolo is Joe Montana 2.0, there’s just not a lot of meat on the bone to be had in the NFC.
Specifically, the AFC South could play into the long-term AFC picture. Jacksonville and Tennessee are both coming off playoff appearances. Houston gets Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt (among others) back. And Indianapolis should – finally – get a healthy Andrew Luck back. It could pretty easily be the NFL’s most up-for-grabs division, with a couple that could – and have – played well against the favorites New England and Pittsburgh.
Speaking of the Patriots and Steelers, the general lack of depth in the AFC means their win totals and/or Super Bowl odds are inflated. Professional football can be a volatile commodity. An ill-timed injury to an important player and everything changes on a dime. Heck, a bad game from a team’s offensive line can sabotage a season rather quickly.
Things going south for Pittsburgh and, yes, even New England is far from impossible. Or, rather, it’d be far more likely for Houstons or Jacksonville’s of the NFL world to upset one or both in the playoffs than it would for an unlikely candidate to make it out of the deeper NFC. From a gambling perspective, the value would appear to be to spread money across a few medium-to-long shots and hope a bet split two or three ways could lead to one big payoff.
