The 11-5 Arizona Cardinals will tee off against the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers in the NFC Wildcard Playoff. Carolina comes into this game on a 4 game winning streak after starting the season 3-8-1. Arizona will shockingly be 6.5 point underdogs despite having a marginally better record. Part of the reason for being the underdog is having to play on the road which usually creates a 3 point swing on the point spread. The Panthers clinched a home playoff game after winning the NFC South. Last years wildcard playoff games were highly competitive and exciting throughout. I expect a similar situation this year with close outcomes. Here are the keys to the game.
WHY Arizona Will Win
1. Bruce Arians
The sure fire coach of the year has been simply fantastic all season. Despite using four different quarterbacks this season Arians lead the red birds to an 11-5 record. Its fair to say Arians will certainty have a coaching advantage over Ron Rivera. River boat Ron a defensive minded coach has managed a very average defensive unit this season being ranked 21st in point per game allowed. A key to the game will obviously rest on the arm of starting quarterback Ryan Lindley. Arians will need to call a great game for the Cardinals to win. Lindley has averaged the most air yards (12.5) than any other starting quarterback so look for the deep passing game to be called early and often.
2. The Arizona secondary can shut down the Panthers passing attack.
A group lead by Patrick Peterson and the honey badger Tyrann Matheiu, Arizona has built one of the leagues strongest secondary’s. Antonio Cromartie, formerly of the Jets is the teams number two corner. Cromartie would likely be the number one corner on most teams. The Panthers have limited options when it comes to throwing the ball. Kelvin Benjamin, a rookie from Florida State is the teams number one target. If Kelvin played for the Cardinals he would likely be the number 3 target behind Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The Panthers receiving core is weak to say the least. Greg Olsen might be the teams most dangerous target. The tight end could create a problem but figures to be shadowed by Tyrann Matheiu for much of the game. Strong safety Rashad Johnson could also handle the duty being very talented in his own right.
3. John Brown can be the X Factor
Rookie 3rd round pick from tiny Pittsburgh State is the teams biggest X factor in today’s game. Brown is the deep ball threat that Carolina should be awfully afraid of. Brown is the teams slot wide out averaging a staggering 14.5 yards per catch. Melvin White will be the man in charge of covering the speedy John Brown. The second year corner will have his hands full for much of the game. If Brown can reel in a couple deep balls it could give Arizona the W.
WHY Carolina Will Win
1. The Panthers are on fire with a 4 game winning streak
The Panthers are playing their best football at the right time at the end of the season. A 4 game winning streak combined with Cam Newton’s prior playoff experience makes them the favorites. The Panthers lost during the 2013 divisional round losing to a tough 49ners team. After losing last year this team will likely have a better postseason feeling going into this year’s game facing a weaker opponent. This also happens to be Cam Newton’s contract year, which could play into a little extra motivation. Is it inconceivable that Newton has a masterful Joe Flacco 2012 type playoff run? Who knows, history may in fact be on their side as the last time a team under .500 played in the playoffs the Seahawks defeated the Saints in the infamous Marshawn Lynch game back in 2006.
2. Arizona struggles against running quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson has 161 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown in two wins over the Cardinals. In fact on 33 rushes by quarterbacks facing the Arizona defense they average a 8.1 yard per carry average. Cam Newton figures to give similar problems. Containing Cam in the pocket will be big factor in deciding this game. The Cardinals have faced some devastating injury’s on defense such as Darnell Dockett and John Abraham but that 8.1 number is simply unacceptable. The run defense as of late has also been pathetic ranking 32nd from weeks 12-17 allowing 5.6 yards a carry. Steven Jackson was able to rush for a 55 yard run which basically describes how bad this unit has been the past few weeks.
3. Obvious advantage at the quarterback position
Ryan Lindley threw his first career touchdown last week in his 9th career game…. Cam Newton is obviously the superior and should be enough alone to get the win. Arizona do not have the 2000 Raven defense at their disposal so a Trent Dilfer type run isn’t likely. This years super bowl also resides in Arizona. A team has played a home game in the Superbowl. Panthers fans should feel comfortable if the game is close and Ryan Lindley has to make a game winning drive.The chance of coach Arians panicking and throwing in rookie Logan Thomas is another possibility. Thomas a rookie from Virginia Tech is fairly raw with his development and doesn’t really have a shot at pulling off the upset.
In conclusion I believe this will be a close game eventually won by Arizona. Bruce Arians has just found ways to win. The red birds will feed off of the under dog status having the nothing to lose attitude. I like the upset in this game as the Cardinals deserve more respect than losing to a team under .500. Ryan Lindley will be able to make enough plays to sneak out a win.
