NBA Tanking: How Real is it?
Many would scoff at the notion that professionals would stoop as low as to undermine the intrinsic value of competitive spirit. Athletes play professionally to compete for championships is a widely held assumption.
However, front offices might not always gather rosters that are conducive to winning in order to maximize draft value. In the 2014 MIT Sloan Conference (via 42analytics YouTube), current Sixers GM Bryan Colangelo noted that he purposefully generated sub-optimal rosters with the Raptors to maintain higher draft lottery odds (and also stated that he was in favor of renovating the lottery).
Additionally, in 2006, the Minnesota Timberwolves gave Mike Madsen the green light to take several threes in overtime in order to preserve their draft lottery status.
From Mike Zarren’s draft wheel proposal for egalitarian pick-value cycles to a new set of lottery odds with less volatility, league officials have ruminated over many ideas in order to combat this tanking trend.
Picture an NBA landscape in which tanking is obsolete: rather than fans and players having incompatible objectives and interests, the focus is always “let’s win every game that we can”.
Competitive basketball for all times!
Testing/Proposing Innovations
I wanted to propose an alternative, idealistic hypothetical that could revive the bottom half of the NBA while also using predictive modeling tools that I’ve been working on during the regular season.
Additionally, to increase the stakes of this proposal, I included the threat of relegation in favor of D-League teams who’ve excelled in their seasons (such as Raptors 905).
There are a plethora of logistic issues and competitive balance concerns to consider when creating this idea, and I’ll confront those a little later.)
My intention is to create a postseason consolation tournament that would disincentivize tanking by redistributing the lottery odds such that those who perform better in the consolation rounds receive higher odds. Additionally, it will disincentivize regular season losing because the lower seeded teams are at higher risk of demotion.
The initial construction (games played, seeding layout) isn’t extremely pragmatic because I wanted to bring probabilistic, predictive modeling into account as well so that we can test an example, seeing what would occur in this consolation system if it were deployed this season.
Immediate Reasons for Caution
- It’s highly unlikely that players would agree to a prolonged postseason unless they were compensated heavily. Even then, it’d be difficult to convince players to play simply because they can provide their team with better lottery odds. It would likely be easier to convince veterans of teams who are in danger of relegation to play as they’d prefer not to waste their years in the D-League.
- The format of this particular consolation involves 7-game series, which isn’t feasible considering player safety and marketability. Imagine trying to convince fans to watch the Suns and Nets battle it out in a best-of-7 series to stave off relegation. Good luck– actually no, just don’t try to convince anyone. You may also potentially be able to argue that it’s unethical because it’s demeaning. So, if this idea were ever employed, we’d likely only see these matchups in a one-game format.
- There’s not a realistic timetable for hosting these consolation games as the playoffs start shortly after the season’s end. I suppose that the entire consolation’s coverage could be displayed on a network like HLN, TBS, BET or TruTV (jokes, just jokes), but it’s tough to fit less compelling matchups into a schedule alongside teams that are actually battling one another in NBA Finals pursuit.
- If implemented soon, we’d undermine the investments that teams have made in future pick protections because this design has nearly inverted how lottery odds are allocated. The philosophy behind selecting teams to target for pick protections would change as well.
- How can we subsidize D-League teams such that they aren’t at such a serious disadvantage upon entry? We could experiment with giving them 9.5% raises from year-to-year contracts (like super-Bird rights). Or, maybe we could create an “expansion” draft that allows the D-League teams to choose to players who satisfy some criteria. Or… maybe even allow for compensatory picks at the end of the first round. It’d be tricky to develop a solution such that the retention rate of D-League squads on a year-one-to-year-two basis isn’t 0%.
Let’s take a look at the first unofficial trial run for NBA Consolation festivities
The model that produces the likelihood of each seven-game series is discussed at length here (and the application for playoff series probability is here). The variable inputs that I used are given the team’s post-ASB production (with the exception of Phoenix*, considering they might reinstate Bledsoe & Chandler).
It’s obvious that some teams attempt to compromise their own performance by sitting veterans; other teams are just unlucky with injuries, so the season-long statistical production may not necessarily reflect the team’s aptitude as well as a playoff team’s production would. There are a variety of other factors to consider, including midseason trades as some teams are more inclined to become sellers at the deadline. However, for simplicity’s sake, we’ll use the aforementioned post-ASB* values as variable inputs. The resulting best-of-seven scenario with the highest likelihood will determine who moves on to the next round.
It’s tricky to find ways to accommodate a consolation with 14 teams, so I used tiers and byes. There is no scenario in which a team that narrowly missed the playoffs, like Miami, would be relegated; rather, the consolation model looks to expurgate teams who’ve been bottom feeders during the year.
There are rules & tiebreakers, pillars to the consolation bracket, essential for function:
First Round
Layout & Seeding:
Series Outcomes:
Dallas in 7 – Perhaps the trust factor between SVG and Reggie Jackson isn’t strong enough, or maybe Andre Drummond doesn’t have the necessary tools to overcome Nerlens Noel and score efficiently on the interior. As long as Tony Romo doesn’t suit up, it seems like Dallas could be in the running for great lottery odds.
New Orleans in 6 – New Orleans Pelicans’ defensive consistency & star power should provide to be too much for the Hornets. Charlotte definitely underachieved during the season, but their lack of late-game execution may sink them.
Sacramento should handle the lowly Orlando Magic in 7 – Trill Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere will likely emerge as an explosive frontcourt against the Magic, but this should prove to be the most unwatchable 7-game series of all time. Sacramento is now safe from relegation.
Minnesota in 6 – The Timberwolves’ offensive talent should feast on a poor defensive unit like New York’s. A KAT vs Porzingis dual might entice a little viewership.
Philadelphia in 7 – Picture this: Philadelphia trails the series 3-2 with a game in the Barclays Center. Then, with their backs against the wall, Colangelo beseeches Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to suit up in order to avoid relegation. Brooklyn’s now a candidate for league re-entry in 2018-19.
Los Angeles in 7 – Bledsoe & Chandler return from “injury” to help Devin Booker overcome their Pacific foe, but Los Angeles surprisingly rides the strength of their once untimely 5-game winning streak to win in 7 and escape relegation. Ice. In. His. Veins.
Onto the next…
Second Round
Layout & Seeding:
Series Outcomes:
Miami in 5 – Miami takes advantage of its first round bye and ensures itself homecourt advantage in the consolation finals. Dion Waiters returns to action, and Miami makes quick work of the underwhelming Mavericks.
New Orleans in 7 – Denver’s defensive deficiencies prevent them from taking full control of the series. Anthony Davis may average 45 points in the series.
Charlotte in 4 – Charlotte truly wasn’t as deplorable as their record portrayed. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins score at will, but they fail to lock down Charlotte’s Kemba Walker.The Timberwolves fall to a lower tier and will earn a maximum of 7th best lottery odds.
Detroit in 7 – Pistons have homecourt advantage, play sound defense and win over the Timberwolves as they’re favored.
Philadelphia in 6 – Joel & Ben play one more series in order to avoid relegation.
New York in 7 – Serious bragging rights between some historical franchises
And to the last round…
Championship Round
Only one matchup takes place to decide the victor of the best lottery odds (odds which could potentially change to reward teams for enduring these sets of postseason series).
Will Miami salvage a strong second-half competent stretch as the best of the worst? Or will New Orleans’ superstar frontcourt gel sufficiently such that they can gather the greatest odds and the additional prize?
Layout & Seeding:
Outcome:
According to the odds, this is quite a contentious series.
To add a little extra spice, New Orleans in 7 – Gentry decides to administer a pace that is more suitable for DeMarcus Cousins, and the twin towers grind their way to the consolation championship. New Orleans clinches the best lottery odds for the 2017 NBA draft.
Lottery Odds Update
So what does the consolation bracket produce for a new tank-averse environment?
There’s plenty to mull over. Such an idea would incite chaos if implemented too soon. Draft strategy and roster optimization would likely see a substantial change. There’s potential that franchises would attempt to build deep rosters that were just mediocre enough to barely miss out on the playoffs.
If a loophole exists, someone will likely try to exploit it as well, but that’s how innovators are motivated to continue building.
