Def Pen NBA Power Rankings: Warriors Wilt, Wizards Work Into Elite Rank

NBA Power Rankings
OAKLAND, CA – MARCH 8: Andre Iguodala #9 of the Golden State Warriors handles the ball during the game against the Boston Celtics on March 8, 2017 at ORACLE Arena in Oakland, California. (Photo by Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)

Last week, David Morrow highlighted his great set of NBA Power Rankings right here! Check it out!

During this set, I will refer to his results from last week to have continued conversation about the similarities and differences of our reasoning. He will return next week.

Bi-Weekly Reminder

Multiple Linear Regression model foundation– featured here (independent variables, method, and all).

These NBA Power Rankings are designed to limit my bias and provide insight about how well teams execute different statistically significant play types and fulfill their own defensive and rebounding philosophies; therefore, I’m not supremely concerned with who beats whom (maybe a team performs better than their record would indicate).

Also, to note, the rankings are a byproduct of an entire season’s work. There are not as sensitive to the fluctuations that NBA teams often endure over the course of the year (which is a potential shortcoming of the process). Additionally, because the model that we’re featuring only includes 30 observations (because of limited access to Synergy Sports Tech play-type data), the frequency of outliers will be a little more prevalent now than in future seasons. In fact, there were a few teams with favorable rankings this week, from the MLR Model, that I plummeted anyway because they were badgering me.

MLR Model Formula

Each team is given a cumulative score, which is a result of the values that they earn for each independent variable in the model multiplied by its respective coefficient and by 82 games.
These scores are ranked from 1 to 30.

Nuanced NBA Power Rankings

The Nuanced Rankings are more reasonable and intuitive than those of the MLR Model.

Using MLR Model as a basis, I used Strength of Schedule (SOS), Off. & Def. Efficiency (& Net Rating), injury status, and the current W-L records of the teams to refine the model’s rankings and reward winners (more, or less).

NBA Power Rankings

Top 10

NBA Power Rankings

  1. San Antonio Spurs – Kawhi Leonard is likely a top 3 MVP candidate, whose skillset is remarkable, regardless of “system” or personnel. Hopefully, his brilliance can continue while LaMarcus Aldridge is out with a minor arrhythmia. Overall, the Spurs have a good resume for the top spot, as David Morrow contended last week.
  2. Washington Wizards – Markieff Morris may have been out of bounds, but becoming a sturdy opponent for the Cleveland Cavaliers seems to be within the realm of possibility.
  3. Golden State Warriors – The injuries have taken their toll, and since Kevin Durant has gone down, the Warriors have maintained competence defensively but are purely mediocre on offense (specifically without Curry on the floor, more so than last year). This is the best way that I could explain the recent confound:

  4. Houston Rockets – Historically brilliant offensive stretch for James Harden’s Rockets. He’s likely going to achieve his first MVP award.
  5. Utah Jazz – As perennial Western Conference powers falter, the Jazz remain steady. They were impressive in a refined performance against the Rockets, but they will soon be tested.
  6. Cleveland Cavaliers – Cleveland’s signings have brought forth an incredibly lethal offense, but defensively they have struggled mightily. Coming into Sunday evening, the Cavaliers maintained a defensive rating of 113.1 and were -.8 in Net Rating.
  7. Boston Celtics – Impressive defensive performances have vaulted them back into contention. Jaylen Brown’s growth into a worthy rotation player has been far less gradual than expected.
  8. Los Angeles Clippers – Solid week, including separating themselves from the struggling but indefatigable Memphis Grizzlies in a road contest. Watch how marvelously a healthy Clippers team operates:

  9. Toronto Raptors – Impressive defensive versatility, but they must get Lowry back in order to pose a threat to the class of the Eastern Conference.
  10. Miami Heat – One of the greatest turnarounds in recent memory. Miami even gave itself a chance late in the game against Indiana without Goran Dragic. This is the first debut of a sub-.500 team in the top 10 of these rankings, but Miami is deserving.
Middle 10

NBA Power Rankings

  1. Milwaukee Bucks – Matthew Dellavedova is starting to turn it around, and the Milwaukee Bucks are getting hot at the right time as they jostle for playoff position!
  2. Denver Nuggets – If only they could defend! Also, note that Denver shouldn’t be censured for trading away surging Jusuf Nurkic. Perhaps they could’ve received more in return, but Jokic and Nurkic simply weren’t a good fit.
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves – Since the All-Star Break, the Timberwolves have been defensive stalwarts. It’s marvelous; take a look at the recent outcomes:

  4. Indiana Pacers – Although Indiana is quite average, Myles Turner should not be overlooked as he continues to thrive.
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder – Wonderous performances from Westbrook– but the ever mercurial Thunder only deserve reverence when the secondary options perform at a high level as well.
  6. Atlanta Hawks – Their road has been tumultuous. Despite their relevance in the conference, they’ve amassed a negative net rating and recently taken lopsided losses to Florida-based teams.
  7. Detroit Pistons – Another hot team. Nine of their last 16 important games are on the road. I wouldn’t mind the red number (associated with their rank relative to last week). The “demotion” isn’t a product of their recent play, but quirks with different criteria.
  8. Memphis Grizzlies – On the other hand, the Grizzlies have been scrambling recently. They’ve fallen 9 spots relative to last week. We’ll just have to wait and see if Chandler Parsons becomes competent again.
  9. Portland Trail Blazers – Two weeks ago, I asked: “Will Jusuf Nurkic help to solidify their interior?” Well, Nurkic fever is here.

  10. Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks have improved greatly since their deplorable beginning. Seth Curry is starting to reap the benefits of his hard work. David Morrow shows this, here:

Bottom 10

NBA Power Rankings

  1. Charlotte Hornets – Disappointing season, overall. The Hornets have actually been a competent unit for the majority of the year, but their 0-6 record in OT limns a small portion of their struggles to execute in crunchtime.
  2. Phoenix Suns – Marquese Chriss is getting many reps. We should keep an eye on him.
  3. New Orleans Pelicans – So… about the future of the Twin Towers– right now, there’s a deadlock– Pace & Space vs DeMarcus Cousins. DeMarcus was a non-factor on Anthony Davis’s breakout birthday bash. What style will ultimately win out? Take a look at one of the saddest tweets in NBA History:

  4. Philadelphia 76ers – Getting healthy and retooling with two young talented players would be intriguing. Dario Saric had a convincing ROY performance this Sunday night. Joel Embiid would sure agree:

  5. Chicago Bulls – If you can’t score, then you can’t win… And the Bulls did themselves no favors by having a 16.1% eFG% on Sunday afternoon against the Celtics. They’ve fallen deeply in the rankings amid their recent turmoil.
  6. Sacramento Kings – Maybe Buddy Hield IS as good as Steph Curry– jokes of course. It was just a joke.
  7. New York Knicks – I feel like Carmelo Anthony may not deserve this much mediocrity, but… the extent to which the Knicks have been putrid was predictable, but still a little depressing.
  8. Orlando Magic – Very pleasant to see Aaron Gordon playing the four again.
  9. LA Lakers – Let’s see where D’Angelo Russell takes this ship
  10. Brooklyn Nets – Not very competent, but better than the Knicks?
Related Topics

Post-grad Engineer, NBA enthusiast

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