Last week, David Morrow highlighted his great set of power rankings right here. During this set, I will reference his results from last week to have continued conversation about the similarities and differences of our reasoning. He will return the next week.
To work on these rankings, I’m using the multiple linear regression model that I created before the season’s beginning and described at length– it’s featured here (independent variables, method, and all). I recommend perusing it to get an idea of why the model might contentiously value a team higher or lower than expected.
These rankings are designed to limit my bias and provide insight about how well teams execute different statistically significant play types and fulfill their own defensive and rebounding philosophies; therefore, I’m not supremely concerned with who beats whom (maybe a team performs better than their record would indicate)– we’ll worry about that after the All-Star break.
Also, to note, the rankings are a byproduct of an entire season’s work. There are not as sensitive to the fluctuations that NBA teams often endure over the course of the year (which is a potential shortcoming of the process). Additionally, because the model that we’re featuring only includes 30 observations (because of limited access to Synergy Sports Tech play-type data), the frequency of outliers will be a little more prevalent now than in future seasons.
MLR Model Formula
Each team is given a cumulative score, which is a result of the values that they earn for each independent variable in the model multiplied by its respective coefficient and by 82 games.
These scores are ranked from 1 to 30.
Nuanced NBA Power Rankings
The Nuanced Rankings are more reasonable and intuitive than those of the MLR Model.
Using MLR Model as a basis, I used Strength of Schedule (SOS), Off. & Def. Efficiency (& Net Rating), injury status, and the current W-L records of the teams to refine the model’s rankings and reward winners (more, or less).
The last two columns correspond to the aforementioned MLR ranking process.
NBA Power Rankings
Top 10
- Golden State Warriors – All-Star Starters Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant have spearheaded the production during an important week. This week featured a marvelous .980 TS% performance from Kevin Durant against his ex, a commanding performance against the somnambulant Cleveland Cavaliers, and satisfying retribution against the Houston Rockets.
- San Antonio Spurs – Although their loss of Pau Gasol may impede their progress, it may bring more life to their defensive intensity. With Gasol on the court, they have a defensive rating of 106.5; without, just 102.3. Kawhi Leonard exploded on the Cleveland Cavaliers for 41 in their OT victory. Also, keep an eye on Dejounte Murray– a talented young rookie PG (29th pick of the draft) with plenty length and a myriad of finishing moves around the rim.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – We should not overreact to the outcome against their rival, Golden State Warriors, on MLK day and say “there is no chance to defend against them in June.” Cleveland’s weapons can perform efficaciously, but in the two matchups against the Warriors thus far, they’ve been inferior for seven of the eight quarters. Overall, they remain an average defensive team that can cover for most mistakes with excellent poise in close games.
- Houston Rockets – James Harden is likely to take the NBA MVP vote by storm, and Eric Gordon is certainly vying for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. Houston’s dynamite attack continues to sink opponents. However, the Warriors stifled their three-point shooting before their bounce-back effort against the Memphis Grizzlies.
- Toronto Raptors – Because this ranking is influenced by the statistical production of the entire year and not as sensitive to the blips in their record (like this recent home loss against Phoenix), the Raptors will stick to the top 5. However, last week, David featured the Raptors at #8 which is entirely reasonable given their desperate need for a more reliable defense.
Surprisingly, the voters did not select the Raptors’ catalyst as the All-Star starter but rather chose DeMar DeRozan. This following graphic from Kelly Scaletta of FanRag Sports should clarify the extent to which Kyle Lowry is responsible for an absurdly proficient offense.Raptors worse with +DRD and no Lowry, better with Lowry and DRD and best with Lowry and no DRD. But DRD “proves analytics wrong.”??? pic.twitter.com/mTx0WEoiLn
— Kelly Scaletta (@KellyScaletta) January 20, 2017
- Utah Jazz – Thankfully, they’ve survived an injury scare with Rodney Hood; he is targeting a January 30th return. Rudy Gobert is truly a wonderful asset, who both protects the rim & finishes proficiently enough that defenses must now tag his rolls to the basket– creating more room for knockdown shooters like Trey Lyles & Joe Ingles. I was very close to placing them at number 5 this time.
- Boston Celtics – Isaiah Thomas could’ve certainly been an All-Star Starter. His past month has been stellar. Their defense and performance against a few sub .500 teams have not; this is why they have fallen from last week’s #5 ranking.
- Washington Wizards – John Wall is averaging a beautiful 23 PPG & 10 APG, and the Wizards are slowly climbing into the top half of the Eastern Conference– a progressive trend, given last week’s #11 ranking.
- Los Angeles Clippers – Injuries have taken their toll on the Clippers and now their potential future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul is injured. But there is some good news, All-Star big man Blake Griffin will soon return. The context of their entire season has sustained their near-elite ranking.
- Memphis Grizzlies – Peskiest team of all-time & poise galore. We won’t speak of this past game against the Rockets.
Middle 10
- Atlanta Hawks – Top 10 defense, despite the great December regression to the mean. The Hawks are once again a very competent bunch, but they will need to increase their offensive potency before I’m convinced that they will lock up homecourt advantage in the postseason.
- Charlotte Hornets -Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum could use more scoring threats. Walker’s been wonderful thus far (although he may not agree that he is NBA All-Star worthy) but also overlooked by many. Nevertheless, picking up two back-to-back wins on Friday and Saturday provides a much-needed sigh of relief of the fans. Relative to David’s mark during their precipitous slide, this is the largest jump forward for any team.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Oklahoma City is meeting its own crucible now. And without Steven Adams, it is becoming progressively more difficult to matchup against solid teams. Could OKC resurge as a result of what Def Pen Hoops would consider an NBA All-Star starting snub for Russell Westbrook?
- Milwaukee Bucks – Good new, Khris Middleton is supposed to be returning soon. As capricious as this Bucks team is, they could use some stability for one of their young leaders.
- Indiana Pacers – Surprisingly, Nate McMillan has comported to Larry Bird’s uptempo demands, but offensive efficiency is not always a product of pace. The Pacers have been repeatedly silenced by the elite teams in the league.
- Detroit Pistons – Detroit limits turnovers among the league’s best but are in the bottom third in the NBA as an efficient scoring unit.
- Minnesota Timberwolves – Jon Krawczynski of the Associated Press betokens why the model is reluctant to lock the Timberwolves in the power ranking’s cellar. Statistics would portend that they’ve done enough to remain very competitive– but they have not finished the job. They’re only a few games out of the 8th seed in the Western Conference (although essentially everyone (9-15) is).
Wolves improve to 1-10 in games decided by 4 points or less.
— Jon Krawczynski (@APkrawczynski) January 20, 2017
- Denver Nuggets – Jokic is still beyond superb– the Nuggets even intend upon trading their impressive Bosnian center, Jusuf Nurkic at some point during this season. Could Jokic be the best passing center in the current NBA?
- Chicago Bulls – While the Bulls are superb on the offensive glass, they are woeful from beyond the arc. It’s difficult to consider this sub .500 team a legitimate threat to make noise without threats to score baskets with higher expected returns. We’ve got a slight discrepancy between this rank and last week. The Bulls could be interested in signing Chris Bosh to strengthen their postseason push– though he would not be eligible for the postseason.
- Portland Trail Blazers – Lack of defense is to be expected at this stage, but they’ve got such firepower in their backcourt. Even if they aren’t good, they remain watchable.
Bottom 10
- New York Knicks – Hit or miss, but largely mediocre.
- Sacramento Kings – The Kings are consistently competitive because they are always at the free throw line. Only 14 other teams in NBA History hold a FTr of .300, or higher, throughout an entire season. Quite unfortunate to lose to Chicago the way that they did, however; it was to the chagrin of DeMarcus Cousins.
- Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks have been increasingly competitive and have even held their own against the Jazz, twice! Wesley Matthews in on a quest for an All-Defensive NBA Team bid this season; his resume features several late-game, on-ball defensive stops.
- New Orleans Pelicans – They were becoming an effective defensive unit, which is very rare for a Gentry-coached squad, but then they ran into the revered… Brooklyn Nets? It’s still unknown whether they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
- Philadelphia 76ers – Embiid’s impact on the 76ers’ net rating (+16.1) is so profound for a rookie and is similar to that of rookie Tim Duncan (+12.5). They’ve won 8 of 11 and aren’t entirely out of the playoff race! Maybe Ben Simmons’s return can provide them with the offensive execution that the MLR model will appreciate; as of now, they aren’t quite ready.
- Miami Heat – Their defensive efficiency has regressed to the mean; however, Heat personnel has been shuffling in-and-out of the rotation because of injuries. Shockingly, they chose to avoid a seemingly generous deal from the Orlando Magic.
- Phoenix Suns – Eric Bledsoe’s line of 40 points, 6 rebounds, and 15 assists on Sunday was simply wonderful.
- Orlando Magic – Bottom 5 in TS%, MLR rank low as well. They just don’t seem to be able to muster enough offense.
- LA Lakers – Lakers’ novice is beginning to become greatly apparent; a top 3 protected pick provides an added layer of complexity to their development. Should the Lakers focus on pursuing the eighth seed? Given that they’ve got one of the league’s worst, I would argue for “no”.
- Brooklyn Nets – Last, but scoring 143 away from home is going to be the highlight of the season.
