Last fortnight’s rankings are right here.
All team statistics are recorded as of games played on Dec. 30. This model is now using BBRef data which doesn’t overestimate possessions at the same rate that NBA.com/stats does. A few of the Sunday contests aren’t included in the model which marginally affects the results.
If you’d like to read these rankings’ methodology, then check the postscript at the end.
Here are the results after the eleventh week of NBA action. Teams with greater standard deviation in point differential may produce results that are a bit confounding, but that’s the nature of the game. This might be the most intuitive set of power rankings thus far.
Notes for this week’s rankings
- Golden State Warriors (1) – Despite Stephen Curry’s injury, the Warriors have weathered the storm and proven to be a vaunted defensive unit. In Curry’s first game back, the Warriors scored 141 points in a frenetically paced environment. Additionally, we have data to support that the Warriors, although a very solid team without Curry, need his presence to ascend from remarkable to redoubtable.
I used @presidual rolling averages because I’ve been interested in Houston’s last 10 games & Golden State’s last eleven without Curry.
Both measure well, but GSW’s recent defensive prowess has them nearer the highest tier of 59.6 wins pic.twitter.com/YvPFoB0fpZ
— Jrue-Tang Forever (@SteadyLosing) December 30, 2017
- Houston Rockets (2) – Houston’s been accosted by the injury bug. Its defense has spiraled out of control since injuries to Chris Paul, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Clint Capela spawned. We can’t simply throw away the evidence we have about them being a great team based on this sample. Even if they’re not necessarily a threat to Golden State, at full strength, they appear to be the second-best, quite easily.
- San Antonio Spurs (6) – Impressive to be here in spite of limited usage from Kawhi Leonard this season. They appear to be on their way to 50 wins once again.
- Dallas Mavericks (19) & Brooklyn Nets (20) – Though each team is devoid of major talent, they’ve risen 6 spots in the last weeks because of their tenacity and occasional brilliance on offense, which increases the variance of their offensive rating & influences their stock in the model.
- Utah Jazz (22) – Perhaps their net rating has started to descend such that there’s more resemblance to their win/loss record. Great win against Cleveland last night could buck this trend.
- Philadelphia 76ers (23) – Embiid’s absences reflect in the model. It’s about time they took down a team without him (on Saturday). This is a playoff-caliber team that I’d hope wouldn’t have injury rob them of a postseason appearance.
Postscript: Frame of Reference for NBA Power Rankings
Once again: I’ve created two models. One that predicts team win percentage given a variety of statistics that I tested in a random forest model and another that’s based on hierarchical clustering. It isn’t a matter of who beat whom.
I should also stress that wins and losses that greatly affect a team’s net rating manifest in the final product. Therefore, if a team loses by 40, as the Magic did to the Jazz on Nov. 17, then their ranking could suffer and the opponent’s rating could flourish above expectation.
As a reminder, here’s a snapshot of the final result for 2016-17: 
