The NBA Most Improved Player Award is given to a young, promising star in the league. It may go to a perennial All-Star, and of course, it will occasionally be awarded to a player who underachieves afterward. In order to be appointed, one must become progressively more imposing to the opposition. Past winners of this award include Kevin Love, Boris Diaw, Tracy McGrady and Hedo Turkoglu. The two most recent winners were C.J. McCollum and Jimmy Butler.
NBA Most Improved Player Candidates
Impressive candidates for this year’s 2016-17 Most Improved Player include the following:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (who appears to be the favorite)
- Nikola Jokic (dynamic passer)
- Harrison Barnes (increased usage rate as a featured scoring threat in Dallas)
- Jabari Parker
- Otto Porter Jr.
Also, for reference, I will be using these as shortcuts:
- Season before MIP consideration = n-1
- Season of MIP victory = n
Given these players’ productions over the past two seasons, I have compared a few statistical trends with those of former MIP winners (of the past 31 seasons) to add perspective to the debate and argue whether or not a 2016-17 potential candidate is worthy of serious consideration.
Let’s take a look at three insightful measures:
- Win Shares differential between seasons n-1 and n
- TS% Differential (n minus n-1) vs. USG% Differential (n minus n-1)
- OBPM (in season n-1) vs. OBPM (in season n)
All graphs are created with Infogram.
Win Shares is a formula involving a complicated summation of marginal offense and defense that a player brings to the floor. MIP candidates have traditionally seen remarkable improvements in this category and were rewarded for their influences as a result. Because we’ve only seen these five players play half of the season, I adjusted the current Win Share totals assuming that they play the remainder of the season. A simple bar graph should show the comparisons.
Giannis compares most favorably in this category. His win share differential is just above Kevin Love which indicates his jump from competent starter to proficient All-Star. The least impressive of the five was Harrison Barnes, who is on pace to climb .6 Win Shares higher than last year.
Thereafter, I chose to study the correlation between the TS% differential (where differential = TSn – TS(n-1)) and USG% differential. I chose to graph this on a cartesian plane. Often, MIP-caliber players are required to take a much larger role in their teams’ offensive gameplan. If their featured roles are accompanied by impressive efficiency boosts, then it can bolster their stocks.
Harrison Barnes’s efficiency has dipped since arriving in Dallas which we can understand. He was given a more USG% on a team with fewer, less lethal threats. Only four of the previous 31 MIP winners have been appointed despite a decline in their efficiency.
Antetokounmpo has been more efficient; given the defensive attention he demands as the first option, this is a marvelous development.
Nikola Jokic and Otto Porter Jr. have excellent as well, taking complete advantage of their offensive roles.
Lastly, I wanted to look at the differences between the Offensive Box Plus-Minus for MIP candidates in the nth and n-1th season. To be a serious contender for the award, it’s necessary that one contributes to teammates’ offensive success and efficiently provides one’s own scoring. I chose to use an X and Y-axis here, as well. OBPMs should generally show large improvement, especially for guards. Each player should have a point in either the first of second quadrants unless his MIP consideration stems from his defensive prowess (which isn’t featured here).
Parker and Porter have shown average OBPM growth with respect to past Most Improved Player Award winners. If I were to create a trendline for all points on the graph, Jokic and Antetokounmpo would be above this line. They’ve skyrocketed into the same category as formidable All-Star caliber players, witnessing greater return than that of both Tracy McGrady and Goran Dragic during their MIP winning years.
Given the criteria that we explored, I think the 2016-17 Most Improved Player race can be ranked from most likely to least likely:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Nikola Jokic
- Otto Porter Jr.
- Jabari Parker
- Harrison Barnes
