This season has been a ton of fun, but it’s coming to a close. The playoffs are almost upon us, and I for one cannot wait. Before the playoffs, though, we have the regular season awards to worry about. We at Def Pen will be releasing our predictions for each award one day at a time this week. Today, Monday, is Defensive Player of the Year.
3. Rudy Gobert
2015-16 per game Stats(as of 3/28/2016): 9.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 0.8 steals
With honorable mentions to Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan, the second runner-up for this award is Rudy Gobert. The 23-year-old center didn’t earn the nickname “Stifle Tower” for his French descent alone. Gobert is an absolute beast defensively, and the stats back that up. Gobert ranks 7th in the NBA in rebounds per game, and 3rd in blocks per game. He also comes in at 2nd in defensive box +/-.
Per NylonCalculus, opponents have shot a meager 40.9% against Gobert this season, the lowest against any NBA player who has played at least 25 minutes per game. Another thing that’s helpful to look at is how the Jazz’s defense does with and without Gobert on the floor. With Gobert on, the opposing team has shot almost 4% worse on 2-pointers this season. This points to Gobert’s efforts protecting the rim.
Every team wants to give up midrange shots above all else. 3-pointers and shots at the rim are what hurt you. With Gobert on the court, opposing teams attempt a lower percentage of their shots at the rim, and convert those shots at a lower percentage. Furthermore, with Gobert on, 44% of opposing teams’ shots come on midrange jumpers, as opposed to 39% when he’s off. The accuracy on those midrange jumpers drop 2% when Gobert is in the game. Opposing teams also shoot 3.9% worse from 3-point range when Gobert is on the floor, which makes sense, because with him protecting the paint, his teammates can close out tighter on perimeter shooters.
The Jazz are a top-10 defense this year, and it isn’t because of Rodney Hood or Gordon Hayward. Rudy Gobert is the real deal.
2. Draymond Green
2015-16 per game Stats(as of 3/28/2016): 13.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.3 blocks
Where do I even begin on Draymond Green? He’s such a special player. I could rave about his impact on both sides of the ball for hours(but I’ll stick to his defensive play for now since this is about the DPOY award). The 6’7″ point forward that is Draymond Green ranks 5th in the NBA in total defensive rebounds this season, and 10th in total rebounds.
Green ranks 6th in defensive win shares, 4th in defensive box +/-, and is the anchor for Golden-State’s top-5 defense. What makes Green’s defense truly special is his versatility. He’s mobile enough to D up guards, but is strong enough to not only hold his own against bigger players down low, but have the advantage over them. He has defended in post-up situations 158 times this season — tied with Brook Lopez for third most in the league behind Al Horford and Mason Plumlee. He has held his opponents to 33.3% in those post-up situations. 33.3%! That’s incredible. He routinely guards guys who are usually anywhere from 3-7 inches taller than him, and they’re hitting just a third of their low post shots over him. His blend of lateral quickness on the perimeter and strength down low is completely unique. Of course, in the paint, his defense is about far more than just strength. His footwork, positioning, and defensive instincts are absolutely superb. Opposing players have shot 5.9% worse than their season average when guarded by Green this season.
We’ll look at some on/off numbers for Green as well. Opposing teams shoot 42% with Green on the court, all the way down from 47.1% with him off. With Green in the game, opponents shoot 2.2% worse on 3s, and 4.9% worse on layups. These numbers further display Green’s versatile dominance on the defensive end.
1. Kawhi Leonard
2015-16 per game Stats(as of 3/28/2016): 21 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.9 blocks
Kawhi Leonard is my pick to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year. It’s really a tossup between him nd Green, but Leonard gets the edge because the Spurs’ defense has been absolutely incredible, whereas the Warriors’ has been “merely” top-5. Leonard ranks third in defensive rating, second in defensive win shares, and has been the key to a historically good Spurs defense. Opponents shoot 44.7% against Leonard, which is the 4th best mark amongst players who have played 25+ minutes per game. When Leonard has been on the court this season, the Spurs have allowed 96.4 points per 100 possessions, compared to 102.8 when he’s off the court. Opposing teams’ true shooting percentage drops 3% when Leonard is on the court. Just like with Green, teams shoot more midrange jumpers when Leonard is on the court, and at a lower percentage.
Players shoot 5.3% worse than usual when they’re going up against Leonard, and shoot worse from every main area on the floor.
Perhaps even more insightful than stats is the praise that everybody in the NBA seems to have for Leonard. The following quotes come from Sports Illustrated‘s Lee Jenkins’ profile on Leonard.
Teammate David West called Leonard “Tim Duncan 2.0.” Los Angeles Clippers shooting guard J.J. Redick, who has made a career out of his off-ball movement and ability to knock down shots, said:
“More than his length, his strength, his quickness, that mother—— is so … locked … in,” says Clippers guard J.J. Redick. “I have no idea what scouting report they give him, but he knows every play, and he takes no breaks. I’m still going to run my stuff. I’m going to be aggressive. I’m going to work for my shot. But I have to recognize he’s probably not going to make any mistakes, and I may only get a shot or two in a quarter. I have to be O.K. with that. I have to be O.K. knowing there will be more space for somebody else.”
Redick excels at coming off screens to get open shots. The fact that he is unable to do that against Leonard is indicative of Kawhi’s ability to absolutely shut down opponents.
Perhaps Gregg Popovich put it best when he said: “This guy guards you. People do not like playing against him.” Opponents don’t want any part of Leonard, and why would they? He can completely take scorers out of the game. Kawhi Leonard is a defense-first superstar, and those are rare.
