Milos Teodosic, the player who was voted as the best international player not in the NBA by NBA GM’s this past offseason, is going to be a free agent this summer. With his success in Euroleague play, his performance at the 2016 Olympics, and anticipated performance at FIBA Eurobasket 2017, many want him to go to the NBA to showcase his talents on the world’s biggest basketball stage.
Teodosic is one of the very few players overseas that could start for an NBA team. He also belongs to an even more elite group of players who could potentially start for a really good NBA team. This potential is important because there is very little doubt he could start for a team like the Brooklyn Nets. However, that potential throws him into greater conversations.
In my previous column, I set-up a model for Euroleague players that have the most success in the NBA. I will be using this model for Teodosic to evaluate how his game could transition to the NBA.
Usage:
The first thing that needs to be looked at is how Teodosic usually impacts the game. We’ve gathered that there is a link between a player’s usage rate and player efficiency rating in Euroleague, and success in the NBA. If both are very high, it stands to reason that the player impacts the game by mainly by having the ball in his hands. In the past, this hasn’t boded well for Euroleague players, no matter the offensive talent.
Teodosic doesn’t pass this test. He is currently boasting a usage rate of 25.82, and last season he posted an even higher usage rate of 26.13. This helps explain his PER of 19.94 for this season, and 20.85 for the previous season. This may have something to do with the players around him and the role he plays, but this can’t be ignored. However, his usage isn’t cause for concern yet. There are other barometers for measuring Teodosic’s abilities that have yet to be explored.
The next test can be used to identify some of Euroleague’s greatest success stories like Manu Ginobili, Dirk Nowitzki, and even Juan Carlos-Navarro.
Impact:
For the next test, we’ll evaluate what Teodosic’s best skills are. What we need to be wary of is a player’s whose best skill is their ability to score. This isn’t the case for Milos.
Although Milos is a good scorer, his best skill and selling point is how great of a passer he is. The first way to prove this is by looking at the numbers. Teodosic is currently boasting an assist percentage of 45.62, an assists per game average of 7.14, and an assist to turnover ratio of 2.55/1. When considering these numbers, it’s important to remember that international hoops contests consist of four ten-minute quarters.
The numbers alone don’t do Teodosic justice, though. To truly appreciate how great of a passer he is, you have to watch him in action.
But wait, there’s more.
There is so, so much more.
Now you might be wondering how to weigh the Euroleague talent? Whether or not he will pass that well when up against NBA athleticism and defenses is a legitimate question. Fortunately, Teodosic has quelled those concerns with his recent run in Rio.
As mentioned earlier, Teodosic is known for his passing. However, that shouldn’t take away from his offensive allure. He’s a fantastic three-point shooter who can knock down shots in multiple ways. Whether it’s off the pick and roll, a catch and shoot situation, or a shot he sets up himself, Teodosic can knock them all down.
Milos is shooting 35 percent from three-point land this season but shot 42.5 percent from deep last season. The drop off can be attributed to the fact that Teodosic hasn’t had nearly as many catch and shoot opportunities this season due to Nando De Colo’s injury early on. When Teodosic and De Colo get to play together, they get to split opportunities as the primary facilitator on offense. This freed the other player up to work off ball. When De Colo went down, Teodosic was the primary facilitator and didn’t get anywhere close to the looks he did when De Colo was playing.
If Teodosic was to sign in the NBA with any of the teams he’s been linked with (Nuggets, Jazz, and Nets), it’s safe to say he’d be more effective playing alongside players who could help get him open looks like De Colo does. With the Nuggets, he’d be with fellow Serbian passing savant Nikola Jokic, the Jazz would have him out there with Gordon Hayward, and the Nets have Brook Lopez out of the post.
Teodosic passes the impact test but before moving on, let’s look at some more film. Not only does this film help provide context to the stats, but it also serves an excuse to watch Teodosic.
As you can see, Teodosic has no problem dancing around elite wings like Jimmy Butler and stepping into his shot. This is directly translatable to the next level.
On this next play, Teodosic shows off a little off-ball movement to get open for a catch and shoot three.
It’s safe to say Teodosic absolutely killed the second test. These results may even have outweighed his first set, but this isn’t the final test in our analysis.
Defense:
Teodosic has always been known to be a lazy defender but there is some hope. Teodosic is 6’5” which means he has the size to deal with NBA point guards. That length could allow him to get away with more than your typical point guard.
Something that shouldn’t be forgotten is that Teodosic is a very competitive player. One of the reasons he tends to get lazy at this stage in his career is because he gets matched up with players who don’t make him pay for his laziness consistently. The NBA may be what Teodosic needs to reignite that competitive drive. As long as Teodosic translates that competitiveness into effort, his defense should improve enough to where he isn’t a problem.
However, if that’s not the case, his offense may be just enough to forgive his defensive lapses.
He could end up being very similar to Boston Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas. Thomas is known as a player who struggles on the defensive end mainly due to his size. He stands at 5’9”, so many opposing point guards are just able to shoot over him. However, Thomas’s incredible performance on the offensive end has done a lot to alleviate defensive woes. Teodosic will likely see the same story for himself in the NBA. Initially, it will be easy to complain about his defense, especially as he acclimates to the NBA. But something that every fan likes to see is a show. This is something that Milos Teodosic is capable of delievering. After all, Teodosic is known as Milos the Magician.
Making a name in the NBA is hard for any player coming from the Euroleague. Many have tried and each of them has had varrying degrees of success. The model I created wasn’t intended to be a perfect, sure-fire way to predict NBA success. It was simply a way to put these players into perspective. There are many factors that go into being a productive NBA player and a lot of them aren’t quantifiable. Because of this, there are outliers to any situation, and to my model. It’s not possible to predict who these players are but if anyone had a chance to do that, it would be Milos Teodosic.
