I know the 2017 NBA Draft is less than a month away. I also know that makes it an odd time to talk about a 2018 draft class member. However, I promise you this is very important.
Luka Doncic is incredible. He’s a 6-foot-7 Slovenian point guard who only just turned 18 but still tore it up for Real Madrid this season. He’s averaging 8ppg, 4.5rpg, and 3.75apg while shooting 45 percent from the field and 34 percent from deep. He’s pulled off highlight reel plays all season that have wowed scouts and fans from all over the world.
Doncic is hyped up to be the number one pick in the 2018 NBA Draft by DraftExpress. While his play has been fantastic, and he’s certainly deserving of this amount of hype, I really want to ask everyone to just take a step back. Because all we’re currently doing is setting him up to fail.
If you don’t believe me on that, then let’s look back at two Euro prospects of years past.
Mario Hezonja:
Hezonja sprung onto the scene at the 2011 Jordan Brand Classic International game. After dropping 15 points and dishing out 4 dimes, Hezonja and Wiggins were the only two players in the international game that scouts said showed NBA potential.
His 6’8” frame and freak athleticism had NBA teams watering at the mouth for him. He could run the floor, finish above the rim, and had a smooth stroke from outside. All these skills led to him being touted as a lottery pick for a long time.
Hezonja chose not to enter his name in the 2014 NBA draft and waited until 2015. Then, he was selected with the fifth overall pick in the draft by the Orlando Magic. In the two seasons since then, he’s never lived up to the hype.
He’s averaging 5.5ppg and 16.5mpg for his career and started to rack up some DNP-CD’s during his sophomore season. He’s not trending anywhere near the hype that he had coming into the NBA and is instead trending towards packing his bags and returning to Europe.
Hezonja never really had a chance though. When you never fall lower than a top-10 projected pick for two seasons and are labeled as one of the most impressive physical specimens seen among European prospects in recent memory, you’re watched like a hawk for your entire career. Every failure is compounded and almost everything you hear or see about yourself is calling you a bust. Not to mention, teams aren’t that forgiving of lottery picks.
How do you handle that as a player and tell yourself that you’re okay and going to figure it out?
Ricky Rubio:
When he was 17-years-old, Rubio took the entire basketball world by storm after his performance for Spain at the 2008 Olympics. He was a Spanish wizard in that tournament, playing incredible even against the United States. Mike Krzyzewski even complimented him after his performance against the US by saying he had “verve” and “moxie.”
Sports Illustrated‘s Alexander Wolff compared Rubio to Steve Nash, Walt Frazier, and Magic Johnson after watching him play. He was in love with Rubio, and in turn, everyone else fell in love with Rubio too.
The world was at Rubio’s fingertips. He entered the 2009 NBA draft and was selected fifth overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves. After staying in Europe for two more seasons, Rubio finally came over in the summer of 2011.
As a rookie, Rubio was fantastic. He finished second in ROY voting to Kyrie Irving. He averaged 10.6ppg, 8.2apg, and 2.2spg for the season. But due to a double ACL-LCL injury he picked up in March, Rubio missed the rest of the season.
Second in ROY voting was solid for Rubio and he continued to play well after his rookie season. He picked up triple-doubles, set a single-season steals record for the Timberwolves, and tyed the single game assist’s record for the franchise as well. Rubio is clearly a solid NBA player, a top 15-20 point guard perhaps, but he never lived up to his hype.
Rubio is nowhere near Nash, Johnson, or Frazier. He was supposed to be the superstar of his draft class, but instead, that went to the guy who went two picks later in Steph Curry. You could even argue there were two other point guards better than him in that draft as well in Jrue Holiday and Jeff Teague.
Based on the pre-draft hype Rubio got, he’s a bust. Even now, with all his tenure, his name dominates trade talks every season like clockwork, as if he isn’t good enough to run with the young Timberwolves core.
I fear the same may happen to Luka Doncic. I know it’s easy to get caught up in our imagination when watching a prospect like Doncic play. There’s every reason in the world to believe he’s going to be a star in the NBA, but please don’t start comparing him to LeBron James. Because once you compare him to James, and he doesn’t become James, like Rubio, he’ll be a bust.
Instead, we should just expect Luka Doncic to first be Luka Doncic. Especially before we expect him to be James.
