Sports fans box themselves into narratives based on their emotionally-invested takes. The argument typically consists of over-the-top praise or below-the-belt slander. However, one Dallas Maverick sees himself in an odd spot as the outlier in Dallas basketball fandom. Jalen Brunson exists as a Maverick enigma.
While Brunson has objectively terrible moments, the stretches don’t extend long enough to question whether he’s a good basketball player. In a way, Brunson’s 2020-2021 performance parallels to advancing past go in Monopoly, collecting $200, only to land on the income tax space, ultimately giving up the $200 you just earned.
Jalen Brunson’s up-and-down game causes a rift in the Dallas Mavericks’ fan base. In contrast, some MFFL see Brunson as an expendable second-unit weapon. Others, those who align with the organization’s thinking, genuinely perceive the third-year point guard as a borderline untouchable player.
Second-round picks in the NBA have a certain mystique. Although it’s not unfathomable to see one breakthrough as a significant piece to winning basketball, it’s more likely the player fizzes out of the league.
Brunson seemingly lands on the former side of the spectrum. Past the bumpy roads of the sophomore slump, the former Villanova point guard finds himself in quite the quandary. Not yet a household name, but many fans perceive him as a keeper for the long haul in Dallas.
A positive in a negative
Unless Brunson improves on his defensive woes, aspirations of securing a steady starting lineup spot don’t fit the Luka Doncic timeline. Unlike his fellow 2018 draft class teammate, the backup guard lacks the elite play-making vision.
In many instances, Brunson’s tunnel-vision stunts his growth as a legitimate guard in today’s NBA.
Versus the defense-lacking Minnesota Timberwolves, the bulldog-built point guard attempted to body two defenders on a layup. Unfortunately, his aggressive drive failed to see an escape route in an open Dorian Finney-Smith.
Framing his aggressiveness in a positive light, Brunson’s attempts per game increased from the last two seasons. The once timid point guard has unleashed another facet of his game: free throw attempts.
Conveying in his layup attempts, .293 is the magic number. Brunson also converting a career-high FTr (free throws per field goal attempt) comes as a revelation compared to previous seasons.
Not only is he outdoing his individual numbers, more impressively, the backup guard also averages a higher FTr than the league-average .247. Clearly, confidence is no longer an issue for the 2018 second-round pick.
Jalen Brunson coinciding success with Luka Doncic
While any individual success as a Maverick deems well for a player’s personal future, it means nothing if it comes at the expense of Doncic. Whether or not such an idea is echoed verbally, it doesn’t matter; the way in which Dallas operates confirms the claim. Additionally, catering to your superstar is not a new concept.
Thankfully, for Brunson, he can have his cake and eat it too with Doncic at the table.
Despite Brunson’s newfound success in driving to the rim, with Doncic on the floor, Brunson’s odds of attempting a layup decrease. Using NBA.com/stats shooting data, the results support the claim.
Out of the 97 total layup attempts this season, only 24 of them came with Brunson sharing the court with Doncic. It’s evident in the numbers: Jalen Brunson’s uptick in 3-point shooting bodes well for his future with Dallas.
Although driving to the rim is one of the few boosts in his repertoire, shockingly, Brunson’s 3-point efficiency marks the backup point guard’s stay-factor in a Mavericks uniform. Shooting 39 percent from deep on 3.1 attempts may sound elementary compared to the rest of the league, but you can’t argue with the end product.
Pointing at numbers is one thing; however, finding avenues to convert said digits into a solution brings home the bacon. Considering Dallas’ at-times deplorable defense, maintaining a lineup with Brunson and Doncic doesn’t seem feasible.
Yet, if the Mavericks claw their way back into an elite or even a top-10 offense, perhaps Brunson-Doncic lineups have a chance to deliver. There is light for the 2018 draft buddies to shine simultaneously, seldom do the opportunities arise. Digging deep in the Cleaning the Glass lineup data, the point differential leans into a net-positive of +11.8.
Leaping into the lineups
However, loud caution signs trigger looking further into the lineups. The highest point differential comes in at +64.6, which at face value appears as an ultra-efficient number. Although the data comes back green, the fact Dwight Powell is the 5, renders said lineup irrational.
In fairness to Powell, his extreme effort won’t make up for the fact he can’t defend elite wings and bigs.
The lineup with the third and fourth highest point differentials feature Willie Caulie-Stein and fan-favorite Boban Marjanovic, making an interesting conversation. While Kristaps Porzingis is undoubtedly better than Caulie-Stein, perhaps Jalen Brunson better fits with the near-the-rim game of the former center.
However, any lineups featuring WCS and Marjanovic won’t make it far in the Western Conference playoffs.
Ironically, the second most efficient lineup falls to the second-lowest in possessions at a mere 20 for the season. A Brunson-Richardson-Doncic-FinneySmith-Porzingis lineup blistered opponents with a +60 differential.
Why doesn’t this lineup occur more often? The offense excels with an astonishing 79.4 eFG (adjusting extra point for threes) percentage, easily leads all Brunson-Doncic pairings. Defensively the lineup inspires promise by allowing opponents only 85 points per 100 possessions.
Asking Carlisle anything related to lineups doesn’t bode well for reporters. However, with such encouraging numbers, the answer to why you don’t see this lineup is either Brunson is more of a sixth-man, or Carlisle saves it for the playoffs.
The bottom line for Jalen Brunson
Regardless of the numbers available to anyone with $5 in their digital wallet, behind the scene happenings and results in practice speak volumes. Perhaps Brunson-Doncic appearing in 576 possessions compared to 4115 for the season is a byproduct of the zany condensed 72-game schedule.
COVID19 has a significant say in the discrepancy of the two not able to share the court. The two missed nine games, with Jalen Brunson notably missing action due to COVID19 safety protocols.
The perception of a bench player comes with such a negative connotation. However, as Maverick for life (minus the three forgettable seasons in Minnesota), J.J. Barea will attest, leading the bench for playoff teams aged well for his career.
93 career starts out of 637 games as a Dallas Maverick didn’t make the league think less of Barea. On the contrary, the respect earned from constant professionalism (similar to Brunson) and fighting his way into starting three NBA Finals games.
Not to say Jalen Brunson is the next Barea, but such a career trajectory favors both the player and the Mavericks’ organization.
All stats appear courtesy of Basketball-Reference, Cleaning the Glass, and NBA.com
